The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

This is (mostly) incorrect. While Venom's surge might have been in mind, NTTD's public forecast hasn't been updated since Venom 2 reported a single box office dollar (and even as of Friday, $90M wasn't within our range for that movie). Boxoffice PRO's ranges are generally finalized on Thursdays, with rare exceptions.

 

Also, fair game to debate our ranges, but I'd recommend more people actually read the analysis from time to time before cherry picking/speculating/assuming things. Those ranges exist for a reason, and while the midpoint is *often* close to the paywalled forecast, that's not always the case.

 

EDIT: Also, Venom 2's audience wasn't as young as many think. Sony reported 45% over the age of 25 -- up from 29 percent on the first Venom. Food for thought.

 

45% over 25 is nothing compared to Bond's 78% over 25 and 35% over 50 (5-0 like the age level draw for Cry Macho and Many Saints, and many other adult fails the last 2 months which couldn't clear $5M, let alone getting the equivalent of $25M in draw, like the last Bond did OW) from its last movie...

 

And that's not just the demo that matters - it's the diversity demo as well - Venom was and has been the most diverse drawing super (which held for #1 and #2) - Bond isn't a diverse demo, although no one really tracked that for us at last open for Bond...

 

I've said over and over it's young, diverse, and male that is drawing...Venom is WAY younger, Venom is WAY more diverse...but on the male skew part, they are probably the same...that's why it won't be a catastrophe...it will be fine open, but not one people here want...

 

Edit to Add: So, I liked this quote from Indiewire about Cry Macho and the failed demo draw right now..."“Cry Macho” is #3, but managed only $4.5 million...Surveys show its audience was 62 percent age 45 and older, and 66 percent white. Those demographics don’t propel ticket sales." https://www.indiewire.com/2021/09/disney-weekend-box-office-shang-chi-dune-1234665773/

Edited October 7, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Bond	72/1154	(6:30pm)	85/1407	(7:30pm)	94/1407	(5pm)	165/1407	(5:30pm)		6:00 PM
Venom 2	131/2766	(5:45pm)	161/2766	(9pm)	186/3021	(5pm)	304/3021	(3:15pm)	$11.6m	4:00 PM
Shang-Chi	190/1402	(5pm)	234/1402	(5pm)	331/1402	(5pm)	511/1402	(5pm)	$8.8m	6:00 PM
Birds Of Prey	71/1844	(5pm)	84/1844	(7:30pm)	106/1844	(7:45pm)	166/1844	(5pm)	$4m	6:00 PM
Black Widow	239/3584	(5pm)			326/3584	(5pm)	498/3584	(4pm)	$13.2m	5:00 PM
The Suicide Squad	52/1242	(6pm)	58/1242	(6pm)	79/1242	(6pm)	153/1242	(6:15pm)	$4.2m	7:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Bad Boys 3	46/903	(4pm)	84/1543	(9pm)	121/2018	(7pm)	246/2018	(5pm)	$6.36m	4:00 PM

 

 

COMPS

Venom2: $6.3m
FvF:  $5.33m
TSS: $4.53m
BW:  $4.37m
BB3: $4.27m
BOP: $4m
OUATIH:  $2.86m
SC: $2.84m

 

Still wish I had some better more recent comps.  SC over performed here by 50% (should stop using it at all).  OUATIH was as pre-sale preview heavy as Joker.   

 

Minus those leaves a $4.8m avg.  This is over indexing in Canada (did BW ad TSS even have any or full Canada?) 

 

So ~ $5m - 5.25m not including Wed.

 

[MrPink]

Yeah tbh I was looking at above Spectre and as long as it can still do that, I think it's good. Venom might have adjusted our expectations into whack here, because it say Venom opened to 80m, I think people would be pleased with NTTD opening at 70m or so.

[Eric the Ape]

18 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	2305	20940	11.01%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 168

Total Seats Sold Today: 436

 

Comp

0.912x of F9 T-1 (6.48M)

0.448x of Black Widow T-1 (5.92M)

2.107x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (8.64M)

0.712x of Shang-Chi T-1 (6.26M)

0.774x of Venom 2 T-1 (8.97M)

 

Not as bad as I feared...but Keyser, I love you, but I really hope you're right about walk-ups tomorrow.

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	2910	20940	13.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 605

 

Comp

0.642x of F9 (4.56M)

0.383x of Black Widow (5.06M)

1.431x of The Suicide Squad (5.87M)

0.612x of Shang-Chi (5.39M)

0.555x of Venom 2 (6.44M)

 

Yeah I don't think 70M+ is happening anymore. Mickey's Law kills another. To the other, adult-oriented films....good luck.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

274

1690

16.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

337

2114

15.94%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1681	265	19051	8.82%	15	119

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 504

 

AMCs sold	1046
Cinemarks sold	183
Regals sold	368
Harkins	84

 

Suicide Squad comp: 7.67M

Fast 9 comp: 7.77M

No Time to Die Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

326

1690

19.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

436

2114

20.62%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2366	685	19097	12.39%	15	120

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 48

 

AMCs sold	1332
Cinemarks sold	322
Regals sold	525
Harkins	187

 

Suicide Squad comp: 4.91M

Fast 9 comp: 5.85M

Venom 2 comp: 6.26M

 

Very weak finish. Added Venom 2 just for the 4PM start comparison, also note that I counted F9 an hour early. Hopefully walkups are good. I think it'll land at 6.8M(1.1M Wed 5.7M Thurs) for total previews

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

To the other, adult-oriented films....good luck.

 

I also think rapid fire releases is gonna factor in. In September, outside of Shang-Chi, we had nothing.

 

Now in the span of a blink of an eye, we're gonna have Venom: Let There be Carnage, No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, Dune, and Eternals.

 

And that's before getting into the holiday season and/or other films vying for attention. 

 

Even if Halloween Kills is more niche, that's a lot of firepower in a small amount of calendar.  Films getting squeezed after the first shot is fired (V2) seems somewhat likely, even before factoring in that some will be more limited than others in the current clime.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday(91 showings): 2047(+401)/24956(+238) in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 7.29M

Fast 9 comp: 10.04M

 

T-2 days Friday(212 showings): 4100(+943)/56218 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 37.79M

Fast 9 comp: 41.25M

Black Widow comp: 22.68M

 

T-3 days Saturday(214 showings): 2448/56444 in 15 theaters

 

T-4 days Sunday(191 showings): 503/51036 in 15 theaters

 

Unfortunately the last day of the F9 comps.

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-0 days Thursday(91 showings): 3046(+999)/24956 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 6.30M

Black Widow comp: 4.86M

 

T-1 days Friday(212 showings): 5380(+1280)/56218 in 15 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 22.52M

 

T-2 days Saturday(215 showings): 3056(+608)/56677(+233) in 15 theaters

 

T-3 days Sunday(191 showings): 630(+127)/51036 in 15 theaters

 

Friday and Saturday look pretty good, so we'll see how they end up doing. I'll do another Friday update tonight and tomorrow morning. But still looks like Megaplex is overperforming, so I'll just stick with what Denver is pointing to

[Eric the Ape]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Seriously though, Bond is probably going to open to a totally reasonable for the franchise 70m that only looks disappointing in the context of Venom's opening. Two weeks ago we were all saying above Spectre would be amazing.

If I can speak for myself, here's my big issue. I've been a strong proponent the film would do amazing if it opened on par with Spectre. But the evidence from how awful the last couple days were suggests that 70M+...might not happen.

 

My data shows it dropped like a rock in Philly and there's been zero gains or improvements elsewhere, with a preview number likely in the 6M range. I'm expecting like 10x for the movie's IM (yes Spectre did like 13.4x its previews, but that was six years ago), so that means we could get an opening in the 60M range...maybe even 50M range depending on what the numbers are at the end. That's way below Spectre, for a movie that has much more going for it.

 

And while TwoMisfits is right that adult audiences aren't coming out yet, and that we should expect a lower number, if we're even in the 60M range, that still puts up a lot of warning bells IMO. If one of the biggest franchises for 35+ audiences, one that skews heavily towards said 35+ age demo, still can't reach 70M, what chance is there for other adult-aimed movies? Not just something like Ghostbusters, but the awards hopefuls, the arthouse/specialty fare, or splashy, big-budget fare like House of Gucci or West Side Story.

 

This just puts so many other films in greater jeopardy to fail than they have before, at a time when mid-budget titles, non-franchise fare, and films aimed towards older audiences are unable to justify their existence in multiplexes. And if Bond underperforms, it says to me older moviegoers still aren't eager to come back, and possibly might not ever come back. That's a problem as somebody who likes the movies I mentioned above, as well as the overall diversity of the theatrical landscape.

 

I'm sure I sound like a drama queen and people will think I'm overreacting, but I hope you understand my perspective and, at least for me, it isn't just making a mountain out of a molehill.

[Cmasterclay]

If Bond opens to 65-75 on the back of almost exclusively older people, I don't think the lesson to take from that is that older audiences aren't coming back. It's that Bond isn't exactly hip and there's a limit how much the olds can do.

[john2000]

spectre had a 70 mill ow, even pre covid, there was nothing to indicate that no time to die would  have pass spectres ow , for sure imo , we have had so many bond movies , so i am not really suprised.A 50 mill ow would be dissapointing but a 60-70 would be more than decent imo as again , my pre covid prediction was 70-80

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

If I can speak for myself, here's my big issue. I've been a strong proponent the film would do amazing if it opened on par with Spectre. But the evidence from how awful the last couple days were suggests that 70M+...might not happen.

 

My data shows it dropped like a rock in Philly and there's been zero gains or improvements elsewhere, with a preview number likely in the 6M range. I'm expecting like 10x for the movie's IM (yes Spectre did like 13.4x its previews, but that was six years ago), so that means we could get an opening in the 60M range...maybe even 50M range depending on what the numbers are at the end. That's way below Spectre, for a movie that has much more going for it.

 

And while TwoMisfits is right that adult audiences aren't coming out yet, and that we should expect a lower number, if we're even in the 60M range, that still puts up a lot of warning bells IMO. If one of the biggest franchises for 35+ audiences, one that skews heavily towards said 35+ age demo, still can't reach 70M, what chance is there for other adult-aimed movies? Not just something like Ghostbusters, but the awards hopefuls, the arthouse/specialty fare, or splashy, big-budget fare like House of Gucci or West Side Story.

 

This just puts so many other films in greater jeopardy to fail than they have before, at a time when mid-budget titles, non-franchise fare, and films aimed towards older audiences are unable to justify their existence in multiplexes. And if Bond underperforms, it says to me older moviegoers still aren't eager to come back, and possibly might not ever come back. That's a problem as somebody who likes the movies I mentioned above, as well as the overall diversity of the theatrical landscape.

 

I'm sure I sound like a drama queen and people will think I'm overreacting, but I hope you understand my perspective and, at least for me, it isn't just making a mountain out of a molehill.

I agree with all your points and am certainly concerned with today's poor sales everywhere. That said, I think some folks are vastly underestimating how big of a franchise Bond is in 2021 America, no matter how much I love it. It's not that it is doing 60m as the biggest adult franchise - it would be doing 60m as a borderline adults only franchise. I'm the only person I know my age who loves Bond and doesn't post on these boards, and I'm older than half of y'all.

[Menor the Destroyer]

FWIW, my dad usually sees Bond films on OW, but he's still worried about Covid until cases go down to June/July levels, but will be going back to theaters when they do. I doubt he would be the only one. We can't say that there's zero pandemic penalty for a movie like this, and claims about whether older audiences will "ever" come back to a theater seem very overstated to me. 

 

As far as mid-budget films those were on the downward trend even before Covid. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Menor

[Plain Old Tele]

9 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

If I can speak for myself, here's my big issue. I've been a strong proponent the film would do amazing if it opened on par with Spectre. But the evidence from how awful the last couple days were suggests that 70M+...might not happen.

 

My data shows it dropped like a rock in Philly and there's been zero gains or improvements elsewhere, with a preview number likely in the 6M range. I'm expecting like 10x for the movie's IM (yes Spectre did like 13.4x its previews, but that was six years ago), so that means we could get an opening in the 60M range...maybe even 50M range depending on what the numbers are at the end. That's way below Spectre, for a movie that has much more going for it.

 

And while TwoMisfits is right that adult audiences aren't coming out yet, and that we should expect a lower number, if we're even in the 60M range, that still puts up a lot of warning bells IMO. If one of the biggest franchises for 35+ audiences, one that skews heavily towards said 35+ age demo, still can't reach 70M, what chance is there for other adult-aimed movies? Not just something like Ghostbusters, but the awards hopefuls, the arthouse/specialty fare, or splashy, big-budget fare like House of Gucci or West Side Story.

 

This just puts so many other films in greater jeopardy to fail than they have before, at a time when mid-budget titles, non-franchise fare, and films aimed towards older audiences are unable to justify their existence in multiplexes. And if Bond underperforms, it says to me older moviegoers still aren't eager to come back, and possibly might not ever come back. That's a problem as somebody who likes the movies I mentioned above, as well as the overall diversity of the theatrical landscape.

 

I'm sure I sound like a drama queen and people will think I'm overreacting, but I hope you understand my perspective and, at least for me, it isn't just making a mountain out of a molehill.

I’m as gloomy as anyone when it comes to mid-budget adult fare, but none of those *need* to open to 60-70m+. Only tentpoles need that to justify their enormous budgets. Bond’s (possible) issues really apply to the others, imo. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/6/2021 at 4:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

78

311

25.08%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

34

318

10.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
310	61	4897	6.33%	15	31

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 436

 

AMCs sold	195
Cinemarks sold	63
Regals sold	31
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 4.12M

Suicide Squad comp: 3.49M

Fast 9 comp: 3.24M

 

It's doing quite well. Most likely just a random spike today, but the overall pace still looks good.

Halloween Kills Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

82

311

26.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

39

318

12.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
332	22	4897	6.78%	15	31

 

AMCs sold	211
Cinemarks sold	65
Regals sold	35
Harkins sold	21

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 3.99M

Suicide Squad comp: 3.36M

Fast 9 comp: 3.29M

[CJohn]

11 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

If I can speak for myself, here's my big issue. I've been a strong proponent the film would do amazing if it opened on par with Spectre. But the evidence from how awful the last couple days were suggests that 70M+...might not happen.

 

My data shows it dropped like a rock in Philly and there's been zero gains or improvements elsewhere, with a preview number likely in the 6M range. I'm expecting like 10x for the movie's IM (yes Spectre did like 13.4x its previews, but that was six years ago), so that means we could get an opening in the 60M range...maybe even 50M range depending on what the numbers are at the end. That's way below Spectre, for a movie that has much more going for it.

 

And while TwoMisfits is right that adult audiences aren't coming out yet, and that we should expect a lower number, if we're even in the 60M range, that still puts up a lot of warning bells IMO. If one of the biggest franchises for 35+ audiences, one that skews heavily towards said 35+ age demo, still can't reach 70M, what chance is there for other adult-aimed movies? Not just something like Ghostbusters, but the awards hopefuls, the arthouse/specialty fare, or splashy, big-budget fare like House of Gucci or West Side Story.

 

This just puts so many other films in greater jeopardy to fail than they have before, at a time when mid-budget titles, non-franchise fare, and films aimed towards older audiences are unable to justify their existence in multiplexes. And if Bond underperforms, it says to me older moviegoers still aren't eager to come back, and possibly might not ever come back. That's a problem as somebody who likes the movies I mentioned above, as well as the overall diversity of the theatrical landscape.

 

I'm sure I sound like a drama queen and people will think I'm overreacting, but I hope you understand my perspective and, at least for me, it isn't just making a mountain out of a molehill.

You are correct. I have been saying this for months. Superhero blockbusters alone won't save theaters. You need all kinds of movies to do well, and if Bond can't do it, you might as well throw Last Duel, Gucci, WWS and others straight to streaming.

[WrathOfHan]

NTTD has really not picked up any pace for the later shows. 2D and Dolby have gained about 15 seats each, but IMAX is basically flat. 

 

Lamb:

7:00: 7/70

9:00: 7/40

Total: 14/110

 

Comps:

 

22% of The Green Knight (1.5M weekend)

42% of Titane (225k weekend)

93% of Pig (900k weekend)

 

If it makes more than 200k after Titane I'll be surprised

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/6/2021 at 4:33 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-8 days Thursday(24 showings): 126(+26)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

T-9 days Friday(51 showings): 112(+14)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-10 days Saturday(51 showings): 39/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-11 days Sunday(30 showings): 17/4882 in 9 theaters

Halloween Kills Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday(24 showings): 147(+21)/4244 in 14 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 3.22M

 

T-8 days Friday(51 showings): 145(+33)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

Suicide Squad comp: 8.17M

 

T-9 days Saturday(51 showings): 53(+14)/8135 in 13 theaters

 

T-10 days Sunday(30 showings): 19(+2)/4882 in 9 theaters

[Cmasterclay]

You guys have been saying for months how nobody cares a West Side Story remake and how The Last Duel looks like a long, middling reviewed slog about rape, and now all of a sudden these movies are flops that will define adult filmmaking for a generation.

[Porthos]

*starts prepping sheets*

 

STOP THAT, STUDIO MOVIE GRILL!!!!  

 

...

 

Alright, gonna have to do a comp w/SMG and a comp w/out SMG just to see if there is any appreciable difference (these phantom sellouts reared their heads on SC and V2 and to a degree F9 which are gonna be my main three comps).

 

If I had any idea what they're capping at, that'd be one thing.  But I really have no clue where they're pulling the plug right now and that... annoys me.

 

(in this case this might help w/Canada doing better than the rest of the DOM market, but it still annoys)

Edited October 7, 2021 by Porthos

[Eric the Ape]

7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I’m as gloomy as anyone when it comes to mid-budget adult fare, but none of those *need* to open to 60-70m+. Only tentpoles need that to justify their enormous budgets. Bond’s (possible) issues really apply to the others, imo. 

I never said these kinds of movies will open to those levels or need to open at those levels. I'm just saying that Bond failing to crack 70M is concerning for something like Gucci or Belfast because Bond has more going for it and the latter films may generate poor box office results below expectations and their comparables.