The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[EmpireCity]

Maybe I will end up wrong, but the $100m articles are lazy journalists extrapolating for zero good reason that if Venom 2 did $90m, that must mean Bond will do $100m.  

 

I have seen no data to support a number that high.  It's still going to do great and likely at $85m or so, but the media members can't help themselves.  

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Maybe I will end up wrong, but the $100m articles are lazy journalists extrapolating for zero good reason that if Venom 2 did $90m, that must mean Bond will do $100m.  

 

I have seen no data to support a number that high.  It's still going to do great and likely at $85m or so, but the media members can't help themselves.  

 

I agree and then throwing in the UK figures on top to muddy the water even more. Does not seem any hard evidence that its doing 100m OW. How does NTTD compete with and best Venom with having fewer shows. It just means some of the demand will be met later in its run and not on opening weekend is how I read it.   

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I agree and then throwing in the UK figures on top to muddy the water even more. Does not seem any hard evidence that its doing 100m OW. How does NTTD compete with and best Venom with having fewer shows. It just means some of the demand will be met later in its run and not on opening weekend is how I read it.   

 

Bond will still have a ton of shows, even with the longer run time.  Any theater with 9+ screens has a minimum of 4 screens to dedicate to it.  Megaplexes will have 6 or 7 they can give it.  

 

We won't run into space issues until at least Oct. 29th.  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

36 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think the lack of shows due to the length of the film will be a pretty big factor in the opening weekend. I could see a few of the oldies deciding against a crowded theater and opting to go midweek or the 2nd week. The legs should be good. Maybe get it to 250M in total and something just shy of an 80M opening would be my guess.

Tomorrow my Cinemark has 10 showings and 2 XD showings.

 

4pm (9)

430 (0)

530 (0)

6 (0)

630 (2)

7 (2)

8 (5)

830 (0)

920 (0)

945 (1)

[ThomasNicole]

I don't think media is in position of treat an 75-85M OW as a disappointment.

 

2 months ago the situation was tragic, anything beyond 60M at this point for any big movie that isn't NWH is good enough to be considered a solid result.

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/5/2021 at 4:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Wednesday Showings Denver

 

Total

340

1429

 

No Time to Die Wednesday Showings Denver

 

568(+228)/1429 in 4 theaters

On 10/5/2021 at 4:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Megaplex

 

T-1 day Wednesday: 608(+76)/2741 in 5 theaters

No Time to Die Megaplex Wednesday

 

976(+368)/2741 in 5 theaters

 

Not too sure what to make of these numbers, but these are about 2% out of all shows domestically(459 showings according to katniss). Using some napkin math, total gross is somewhere around $26000 between the two theaters. Megaplex is most likely overperforming from how Thursday&Friday look, so I'll say the gross is 2.5% of domestic total. With that, we arrive at 1.04M. I guess a bit of a complicated way to say about 1M for Wed

[TwoMisfits]

Look, I've said over and over for Bond, anything over $50M is good...and anything over $60M is REALLY good.  

 

I just don't think folks have "priced in" any of the GA headwinds nor the portion of the fanbase "tentativeness" into their projections...so you get stupid, "well if "not as good" movie X made $90M, then certainly "better" movie Y should make $100M" "professional" analysis...

 

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Time to Die Wednesday Showings Denver

 

568(+228)/1429 in 4 theaters

No Time to Die Megaplex Wednesday

 

976(+368)/2741 in 5 theaters

 

Not too sure what to make of these numbers, but these are about 2% out of all shows domestically(459 showings according to katniss). Using some napkin math, total gross is somewhere around $26000 between the two theaters. Megaplex is most likely overperforming from how Thursday&Friday look, so I'll say the gross is 2.5% of domestic total. With that, we arrive at 1.04M. I guess a bit of a complicated way to say about 1M for Wed

 

 

FWIW, locally early access sold 558/978 (57.06%) [+104 tickets] over four theaters.  So for whatever reason, quite a bit better than your neck of the woods.

 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like $1.1-1.2M WED. Waiting for Keyser's number for confirmation.

[Menor the Destroyer]

NO Time to Die MTC2

 

Wed:

Showtimes: 71 (nc)

Tickets Sold: 7857/15714 (+1807) (final will be around 8k)

Gross: $124830 (+28449)*

 

Thu:

Showtimes: 2945 (+128)

Tickets Sold: 32427/408276 (+5687)

Gross: 451724 (+76121)*

 

TSS comp: 6.7 million

 

Fri:

Showtimes: 4786 (+223)

Tickets Sold: 52002/672729 (+11165)

Gross: 658132 (+137254)*

 

TSS comp: 23.7 million 

F9 comp: 16.84 million 

 

Fri comps don't have ATP adjustment, which would be a big factor for summer releases, so take with a grain of salt. 

 

* for same reason as before 

 

Awful pace jumps, yesterday was clearly inflated by the Atom deal (thanks @TwoMisfits for the tip on that, otherwise I would have been really weirded out by the pattern). Even in isolation the pace is not that great. 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	1869	20772	9.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 32

Total Seats Added Today: 5,539

Total Seats Sold Today: 310

 

Comp

0.964x of F9 T-2 (6.85M)

0.436x of Black Widow T-2 (5.75M)

2.081x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (8.53M)

0.711x of Shang-Chi T-2 (6.26M)

0.864x of Venom 2 T-2 (10.02M)

No Time to Die Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	2305	20940	11.01%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 168

Total Seats Sold Today: 436

 

Comp

0.912x of F9 T-1 (6.48M)

0.448x of Black Widow T-1 (5.92M)

2.107x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (8.64M)

0.712x of Shang-Chi T-1 (6.26M)

0.774x of Venom 2 T-1 (8.97M)

 

Not as bad as I feared...but Keyser, I love you, but I really hope you're right about walk-ups tomorrow.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I don't see this having super crazy walkups. Sure they will be decent but we haven't seen any trend to indicate some massively backloaded PS run. Yesterday's MTC numbers being the exception, but from today it looks like that was purely caused by the discount. My guess is Thu alone will be in the 6m range.   With Canada maybe 6.5-7. 

 

Looking at F9, MTC1 was 67k for Thursday at 8PM Eastern on Wed night, so probably would finish with like 73k final PS. Bond pure Thu was like 53k yesterday night with like 9k added during the day? So would probably do about 12k more. That will leave it around 90% of F9 which comps to 6.3 million. MTC2 is worse at around 60% of F9. If that cancels out Canada...hmm. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

Not as bad as I feared...but Keyser, I love you, but I really hope you're right about walk-ups tomorrow.

Gotta remember that US comps if at $6.5M are essentially $7.5M because Canada will be double of what those films did.

 

Canada is basically more like UK I guess than US for movies.

Edited October 7, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

22 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	510	4268	11.95%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 120

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

 

Comp

0.799x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-9 (15.49M)

1.882x of The Conjuring 3 T-9 (18.45M)

0.545x of F9 T-9 (3.87M)

1.522x of The Suicide Squad T-9 (6.24M)

0.573x of Venom 2 T-9 (6.65M)

Halloween Kills Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	557	4268	13.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp

0.794x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-8 (15.39M)

1.751x of The Conjuring 3 T-8 (17.17M)

0.556x of F9 T-8 (3.95M)

1.450x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (5.95M)

0.579x of Venom 2 T-9 (6.72M)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Safin said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	535	6716	7.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 94

 

Comp

0.806x of F9 T-16 (5.72M)

0.311x of Black Widow T-16 (4.11M)

2.277x of The Suicide Squad T-16 (9.33M)

0.758x of Shang-Chi T-16 (6.67M)

1.099x of Venom 2 T-16 (12.74M)

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	576	6716	8.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comp

0.820x of F9 T-15 (5.83M)

0.311x of Black Widow T-15 (4.11M)

2.313x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (9.48M)

0.695x of Shang-Chi T-15 (6.11M)

1.043x of Venom 2 T-15 (12.1M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Y'day numbers had me worried for my prediction sense but today numbers so far have been par what prediction were a week ago. 

 

Let's see what Kesyer has for us. 

 

Thanks @TwoMisfits. Our deals and discounts expert.

[keysersoze123]

Atom definitely played a part. Quick update from me.

 

No Time to Die MTC1

Wednesday Early Shows - 24844/56782 449474.10 184 shows

Thursday Previews - 61496/506600 1059320.56 2866 shows

Friday - 91470/865610 1495775.92 4776 shows

 

I will tone down my expectations. I would happy with anything above Spectre :-) Friday PS is still very strong and that will help with great PS to OW multi for sure. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Pinacolada]

So... was that article of Fandango pre-sales for No Time To Die outpacing Venom 2 and F9 just a lie? 

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

So... was that article of Fandango pre-sales for No Time To Die outpacing Venom 2 and F9 just a lie? 

Of course not. Every movie has a different trajectory and a different percentage amount of presales vs. walk-ups, dependent ont he franchise and general interest/hype. The age-old example people love to throw out to discredit presales and the work we do is "OMG FANDANGO SAID SOLO SOLD MORE TICKETS THAN BLACK PANTHER????!!!". The thing about this is that Star Wars is a more pre-sales driven beast. The most pre-sales driven franchise at this point in time in fact. Fandango didn't lie, it's just that both movies were different beasts.

 

Venom 2 saw an obscenely high amount of walkups the day of release, which Fandango couldn't track. F9, while not as walkup heavy as Venom 2, was still in the same boat IIRC. It doesn't mean they lied, it's just that this is the information they were given, and they are going to use that information to promote their website and the big new movie coming down the pipeline. People just think of this stuff as binary or fail to account for external factors (or just wanna troll and/or generate an easy clickbait headline), which just leads to a failure of understanding how this stuff works.

 

But that's not a bad thing. If things were binary and Fandango was the end-all be-all of everything, then tracking the box office would be pretty boring.

 

And really, just using Occam's Razor, why would a company make something up? Wouldn't that just lead to terrible PR when they get caught?

[charlie Jatinder]

No Time To Die Nationwide T-1 day

 

WED - $1M

THU - $3.15M

FRI - $4.75M

SAT & Rest - $5.25M

 

Total - $14.15M

 

At same time, overall sales are 5% behind Venom 2 but different pattern. THU is 60% of Venom 2, inc WED around 78%. FRI is just 5% below while SAT and rest are slightly over. 

 

However need to focus that Venom 2 had more numbers in Walkup friendly chain MTC2 while NTTD is MTC1 heavy and will hit capacity at many places in CAN so PSm should be lower.

 

I am expecting THU to be around 6.5M while FRI can go 22M. After that it depend on SAT growth and stuff.

 

So,
1 + 6.5 = 7.5
22
27.5
20.5

77.5