The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

How much do we think Wednesday would add to that?

 

I think Charlie floated $1.1-$1.2M earlier, but was looking for confirmation...but $1Mish is probably a good Wednesday WAG...

[DAJK]

Thursday night has stalled a bit here, simply because so many shows are sold out/nearly sold out, and the movie is so goddamn long that we can’t add any more reps of it.

 

Friday is popping off though.

 

Also Dune is keeping a really REALLY solid pace.

 

More later...

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Charlie did the calculation yesterday night, should be about 1.1-1.2 million. 

That would put previews at 7.1-7.7 million total, which is still quite a bit above Spectre.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

That would put previews at 7.1-7.7 million total, which is still quite a bit above Spectre.

Not exactly a fair comparison though, did Spectre have Wed shows? I wasn't tracking BO then.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

That would put previews at 7.1-7.7 million total, which is still quite a bit above Spectre.

 

Spectre had no Wednesday previews and started Thursday previews at 7pm...

 

https://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-spectre-peanuts-movie-1201635205/

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Not too surprised Bond is looking like a disappointment. It's looking more and more like older audiences have permanently moved on from theaters as the past year has shown. This seems to be more of an American problem though, as evident by how Bond and Dune have been doing internationally.

 

Leo really needs Bezos's help sooner than later.

[Cmasterclay]

It appears the doomposting has begun in earnest.

[Cmasterclay]

Seriously though, Bond is probably going to open to a totally reasonable for the franchise 70m that only looks disappointing in the context of Venom's opening. Two weeks ago we were all saying above Spectre would be amazing.

[ThomasNicole]

Maybe i'm wrong but seems like Dune is holding well. I was worried that after such a great first day this would collapse, glad it seems like it's not the case.

[CJohn]

I have been saying 70M for weeks. Above Spectre would make it the 2nd biggest Bond OW ever. That is the target we want. Even in April 2020, Skyfall was never in reach.

[Cmasterclay]

Also, most of my friends (mid 20s and diverse) I grew up with are not seeing Bond and couldn't give a single shit about the franchise, while many of them are seeing Venom. Maybe instead of saying "Bond is proof old people aren't coming back to theaters" the narrative should be "70m is really impressive for a movie whose audience hasn't expanded much beyond middle-aged white people." And I say that as someone who calls Bond his favorite franchise.

[SnokesLegs]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That 100m figure was from exactly one news article and was instantly discounted by practically everyone here.

 

I don't think anyone is using here is using it as any sort of expectations bar.  

 

(and if they are, they shouldn't have been)

True, but based on some responses already in this thread with people saying that it’s looking like a “disappointment”, it definitely seems like some were taking the $100m figure seriously.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

True, but based on some responses already in this thread with people saying that it’s looking like a “disappointment”, it definitely seems like some were taking the $100m figure seriously.

I think people's expectations here were in the 80s, which was reasonable given good walkups, but it seems like we're getting the opposite. Though the signs were there with fairly weak bumps in the last few days (barring the Atom-inflated Tuesday). 

[Ronin46]

So all the gloom around Bond is based off a slowing down of sales for previews? Bond is not a preview heavy franchise. The movie is very long and as already been said its full in some places already and maybe not enough capacity for Thursday previews to be maximized. That will just translate into people seeing in later in the weekend. its also a holiday of sorts in US for Monday so will hold better on Sunday. Its not just for older people but its going to skew more to an older demographic than CBM. I suggested some of those people will maybe wait for a quieter time to go and see it (midweek or 2nd weekend).

 

Venom opened gangbusters but seems to be falling away very quickly. Bond will open a fair bit less but hold a lot better.   

 

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

True, but based on some responses already in this thread with people saying that it’s looking like a “disappointment”, it definitely seems like some were taking the $100m figure seriously.

 

I think some folks are worried about it crossing 75m, tbh. Or 80m, as Menor said.

[keysersoze123]

I dont think anyone thought 100m was serious. At best was 80-85m prediction. Based on PS for past 2 days, we will have to look at it again. Let us wait until friday afternoon before projecting. As I posted yesterday anything above Spectre is a win. Even if it misses that its not a big deal as it will mint coin in european markets(at least some of them). 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think anyone thought 100m was serious. At best was 80-85m prediction. Based on PS for past 2 days, we will have to look at it again. Let us wait until friday afternoon before projecting. As I posted yesterday anything above Spectre is a win. Even if it misses that its not a big deal as it will mint coin in european markets(at least some of them). 

 

Well, don't say that to Deadline - their prediction today was $60M+, with the possibility of over Venom 2 and possibly 3 digits...aka, almost the entire range of possibilities:)...

[DAJK]

Also even across Canada in general, Bond is doing very well in urban markets, and poor in more rural ones (with some exceptions). Venom is the opposite; overindexing in small rural markets, and underindexing in larger urban ones.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

For the board, yes, but it shouldn't...

 

Maybe it's b/c Shawn popped tracking up from the reasonable $56M floor, but going to $71M as the floor (and something like $83M as the midpoint projection - aka, the expectation for the weekend) based on Venom's box office made little sense b/c the crossover between Venom's and Bond's audiences is so small.

 

Maybe I should have made this point earlier, but it would have been the same as looking at Addams Family's $17M and saying "oh crap, I need to drop the floor $20M" - when your movies have such differing GA demo appeals, one movie's wildly positive result might float everything a little, but not +30% or more...

This is (mostly) incorrect. While Venom's surge might have been in mind, NTTD's public forecast hasn't been updated since Venom 2 reported a single box office dollar (and even as of Friday, $90M wasn't within our range for that movie). Boxoffice PRO's ranges are generally finalized on Thursdays, with rare exceptions.

 

Also, fair game to debate our ranges, but I'd recommend more people actually read the analysis from time to time before cherry picking/speculating/assuming things. Those ranges exist for a reason, and while the midpoint is *often* close to the paywalled forecast, that's not always the case.

 

EDIT: Also, Venom 2's audience wasn't as young as many think. Sony reported 45% over the age of 25 -- up from 29 percent on the first Venom. Food for thought.

[CJohn]

13 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

EDIT: Also, Venom 2's audience wasn't as young as many think. Sony reported 45% over the age of 25 -- up from 29 percent on the first Venom. Food for thought.

3 years have passed. All those pre-pandemic 22-24 younglins who went to see Venom are now pandemic 25+ years old people.

Edited October 8, 2021 by CJ Sarandos