The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

What are some comparisons?

 

From what I can see only TLJ and SW7 would be ahead? 

Double by the looks of things, I think someone said they were at $36m. 

[KJsooner]

This ain’t touching TFA ow record then. It’ll settle around 220 mil ow. Another movie which is being overpredicted at the box office 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Deep Wang BP post 8 days out for some perspective

 

Thank you for finding that post. I was gonna ask for some comparisons to other CBM lol But you got them all pretty much 

 

Also gives me an idea about DP2 as well 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

This ain’t touching TFA ow record then. It’ll settle around 220 mil ow. Another movie which is being overpredicted at the box office 

SW movies are far more preview font loaded than Marvel movies.

 

To put it in perspective Rogue One (much less front loaded than TFA)  did $29m in previews and opened at $155m.    AOU didi $27.6m and did $191.2m

[HouseOfTheSun]

9 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

This ain’t touching TFA ow record then. It’ll settle around 220 mil ow. Another movie which is being overpredicted at the box office 

How many times do SW presales have to be explained

[The Mad Titan]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

SW movies are far more preview font loaded than Marvel movies.

 

To put it in perspective Rogue One (much less front loaded than TFA)  did $29m in previews and opened at $155m.    AOU didi $27.6m and did $191.2m

And BP did $25.2 million but made it to $202m. 

 

Thanks for you finding Deep’s BP post 8 days out, I would say we’re locked for $35 million in previews with room to run. My target is still $41 million. 

[fabiopazzo2]

24 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Deep Wang BP post 8 days out for some perspective

 

Thanks @TalismanRing . Outstanding compare to other Marvel film 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, KJsooner said:

This ain’t touching TFA ow record then. It’ll settle around 220 mil ow. Another movie which is being overpredicted at the box office 

Lmao, anyone who expected it to approach TFA pre-sales has no idea how December SW pre-sales work compared to everything else. I've predicted $275m+ for OW for months, but I never predicted it would hit $50m in pre-sales. And it already has. It's doing way better than it needs to in that arena to take down the OW. 

[Porthos]

Speaking of Infinity War, a few theaters in town still haven't set their Thursday schedule yet beyond the initial IW slate.  I reckon they'll be setting them today/tomorrow, so IW will see another jump in showings here locally.  The last jump will be on Wed/early Thur when the local drive-in checks in (it's always super late in setting their lineup).  Probably gonna get around 160 showings when all is said and done.*

 

Interestingly/surprisingly enuf, still don't have any showings past 12:45am locally.  THAT I also expect to change in the next couple of days when a few 1am/1:30am showings appear at the busiest theaters, though I don't know if we'll get the 3am showings that TFA and TLJ got.

 

* TLJ ended up at 163, however two new theaters have opened up in the meantime, so IW could be even higher.  As noted earlier, BP finished at 136 showings, with one more theater complex having opened since then (the other one having opened just after TLJ debuted).

Edited April 23, 2018 by Porthos

[Alli]

45 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lmao, anyone who expected it to approach TFA pre-sales has no idea how December SW pre-sales work compared to everything else.

Aren't december sales more spread around? i'd imagine summer movies have a higher pre-sale? kids out of school. december -people  are busy with Christmas shopping

Edited April 23, 2018 by Alli

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Alli said:

Aren't december sales more spread around? i'd imagine summer movies have a higher pre-sale? kids out of school. december -people  are busy with Christmas shopping

TFA was a once-in-a-generation event led by the King of the Presale crowd at the time presales really started to become A THING.  It also had strong presales all the way to Christmas Day. 

 

Even a once-in-a-ten-year* build up event of a Marvel movie shouldn't be thought of to compare.

 

* Ignore the film coming out next year man behind the curtain. 

 

IMO the only fanbase out there right now who would compete is the Harry Potter crowd.  If there ever is a 'true' sequel to the Harry Potter movies in about a decades time at Hogwarts with the original cast OR if the Fantastic Beasts franchise ever has a movie purely set at Hogwarts after it really becomes established, then, yeah... That movie might compete with TFA for presales.  If only because the HP fan community can get extraordinarily nutty when it comes to presales.

 

That Infinity War is doing as well as it is and that it will probably clear 40m on Thursday is a remarkable achievement.  Time will tell if it leads to Marvel Big Event Movies to be more presale nutty like Star Wars and Harry Potter ones.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Porthos

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 it will probably clear 40m on Thursday is a remarkable achievement

 

"Probably"?

 

[Porthos]

My last post notwithstanding, there IS a limit to SW nuttiness when it comes to presales.  I fully expect Solo to get less presales than Rogue One for a variety of factors.  Perhaps a significantly less amount of presales.

 

But then again, I've had it opening under R1 for nearly two years now, so I would say that, wouldn't I?

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

"Probably"?

 

Only Siths deal in absolutes? 

 

Yeah... I originally said "almost certainly" but changed it in an abundance of caution.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Only Siths deal in absolutes? 

 

Yeah... I originally said "almost certainly" but changed it in an abundance of caution.

 

I would say "it has a chance".  

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Trolltastic Tele said:

 

I would say "it has a chance".  

Oh, you meant it in the other way. Whoops. See THAT'S why I changed it to probably. 

 

Well, it's running 2.3x ahead of BP locally and will probably finish 1.8x when all is said and done.  

 

Gun to my head, I think 40m+ is more likely than not, yes.  35 to 38 is probably the lower bound, but I'll leave that discussion to folks more learned than me when it comes to presales.

[TalismanRing]

FANDANGO - Midnight to 1 pm (CST)

 

Avengers Infinity War	17,383
I Feel Pretty	912
A Quiet Place	891
Super Troopers 2	753
Deadpool 2	591
Rampage	542

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

FANDANGO - Midnight to 1 pm (CST)

 

Avengers Infinity War	17,383
I Feel Pretty	912
A Quiet Place	891
Super Troopers 2	753
Deadpool 2	591
Rampage	542

The gap between AQP and Rampage is so different weekdays vs weekend days on fandango.

[Stewart]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oh, you meant it in the other way. Whoops. See THAT'S why I changed it to probably. 

 

Well, it's running 2.3x ahead of BP locally and will probably finish 1.8x when all is said and done.  

 

Gun to my head, I think 40m+ is more likely than not, yes.  35 to 38 is probably the lower bound, but I'll leave that discussion to folks more learned than me when it comes to presales.

The hype is really getting to me now. Am genuinely feeling that $50m previews and $250m OW is probable. I also genuinely feel this could do $1.8b WW

 

its probably just the hype, but I only started box office when TFA came around, so I missed the gargantuan numbers of JW and TFA when they were released

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

The gap between AQP and Rampage is so different weekdays vs weekend days on fandango.

Rampage seems to playing more like a family movie, lower weekdays and big Saturday jumps