The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Litio]

Just now, feasby007 said:

 

 

 

@Litio That's 3 from just this page and the last couple hours alone... This was my frustration and why I did the maths

I share this feeling with you. Some members here keep forcing that horror movie can't make huge numbers like a SH movie when IT and Halloween (on OW at least) have proved the opposite.

[RealLyre]

 

34 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Right, people really need to stop with the "it'll be frontloaded" bullshit. 

 

 found that less than 80M is practically impossible for this based on Wednesday numbers

 

 

Here are the most presale heavy films from the past year (discounting expansions and wednesday releases) and their relative predictions of Us' OW based on the wednesday number:

 

A Star Is Born	52.4
Fantastic Beasts	78.6
Mamma Mia 2	79.8
SW: Solo	81.7
Deadpool 2	84.2
Captain Marvel	85.2
What Men Want	93.1
Halloween	97.5
Spider-Verse	99.2

 

Everything else is over 100M.

 

 

Clearly the trend here is for an explosion, unless this movie is supposedly more presale heavy than freaking Star Wars, Marvel and Potterverse..
 

 

so if it opens to only 81M or 85M (according to your analysis) then it is as frontloaded as a SW or a Marvel movie?

 

so unless Us opens to like 90M-100M+ (or at least above 85M) then we can say it is as frontloaded as a SW or a Marvel movie?

 

 

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

so if it opens to only 81M or 85M (according to your analysis) then it is as frontloaded as a SW or a Marvel movie?

 

so unless Us opens to like 90M-100M+ (or at least above 85M) then we can say it is as frontloaded as a SW or a Marvel movie?

 

 

 

According to Wednesday numbers, yes. 

 

Though take some caution, since many more tickets have been sold prior to this week for those movies proportionally. Sadly we don't have that data to compare. 

 

Obviously overall, Us won't sell nearly as many tickets in advance since the initial presale rush is nothing compared to those franchises. What I am arguing though is that opening week there is a clear trend in which movies are the most presale heavy, and if Us follows them then we can say:

 

Us is as presale heavy as SW and Marvel on opening week. 

 

I'm sorry if this intention wasn't entirely clear, but the data I showed above is only considering tickets sold this week and all comps are as such, not comparing the full presale runs. 

[Litio]

This is only wed sales. I'm sure Solo and Marvel movies had big sales the weeks before. Total sales would be a nice comparison.

 

[TwoMisfits]

47 minutes ago, Litio said:

Are there any people really doubting that US will open close to or maybe more than $100m? Yes, there is hype and higher presales, but these presales are not from a Star Wars movie, guys.

Yes - and I'm in that camp.

 

Walk ups are huge for horror films...and tonight, in my area, this is not walking up like a $100M horror movie...now, the weather sucks, I'm only one area, and we have 3 more days...but, it's probably the more rational and reasoned response now to be cautious on expectations off presales vs wildly optimistic...

 

It's posts like these that lead folks to be wildly disappointed Saturday b/c they let their expectations inflate up and up and up (see Captain Marvel $200M+ OW DOM folks) vs being very happy the movie performed as well as it did...

 

If Us goes $60M+ DOM, it will be a huge triumph and should be wildly celebrated...anything more is bonus...

[narniadis]

4 hours ago, YLF said:

I’ve seen people ask him before, so I decided to respectfully ask since I’m curious about the number. If he is unable to provide the number that’s fine. I’m not demanding it. 

No Worries - It wasn't directed at you specifically as much as the thread in general.

We have sooooo many new folks that just don't understand how delicate the balance is between us and the gods with numbers. This Thread is 2.0 for a reason (previously nuked due to people not knowing how to keep their mouths shut.)

 

Charlie is very very open with his data - which is fine, we just want to make sure that we don't over kill - and the behavior of sum this week that just assume he is gonna dump numbers has shown that there are some addicts here, particularly among the newbie crowd.

[Litio]

Total sales in fandango for each day 

Current 8pm on thursday

39112	2019-03-21	THU	Us
31852	2019-03-22	FRI	Us
18072	2019-03-23	SAT	Us
5180	2019-03-24	SUN	Us

Halloween Final 

40055	2018-10-18	THU	Halloween
64705	2018-10-19	FRI	Halloween
47236	2018-10-20	SAT	Halloween
30825	2018-10-21	SUN	Halloween

 

[MattW]

8 minutes ago, Litio said:

Total sales in fandango for each day 

Current 8pm on thursday

39112	2019-03-21	THU	Us
31852	2019-03-22	FRI	Us
18072	2019-03-23	SAT	Us
5180	2019-03-24	SUN	Us

Halloween Final 

40055	2018-10-18	THU	Halloween
64705	2018-10-19	FRI	Halloween
47236	2018-10-20	SAT	Halloween
30825	2018-10-21	SUN	Halloween

 

Halloween: 182,821

Us: 94,216

 

That's why Us is selling more, it has waaayyy more good seats still open than Halloween had at the same point.

 

Also half of Halloween is 38m. 

Us < Glass confirmed.

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, Litio said:

Total sales in fandango for each day 

Current 8pm on thursday

39112	2019-03-21	THU	Us
31852	2019-03-22	FRI	Us
18072	2019-03-23	SAT	Us
5180	2019-03-24	SUN	Us

Halloween Final 

40055	2018-10-18	THU	Halloween
64705	2018-10-19	FRI	Halloween
47236	2018-10-20	SAT	Halloween
30825	2018-10-21	SUN	Halloween

 

Definitely a different perspective - will be curious to see the final tallies after the weekend is over

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

Halloween: 182,821

Us: 94,216

 

That's why Us is selling more, it has waaayyy more good seats still open than Halloween had at the same point.

 

Also half of Halloween is 38m. 

Us < Glass confirmed.

 

That's Halloweens final total. Not where it was on the Thursday.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

That's Halloweens final total. Not where it was on the Thursday.

Preeeeeety sure @MattW was joking. 

 

(though his comment about more seats being available is just silly if he wasn't, for the reason you note) 

 

Edited March 22, 2019 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Preeeeeety sure @MattW was joking. 

 

(though his comment about more seats being available is just silly if he wasn't, for the reason you note) 

 

Possibly. Hard to tell online when people are being facetious these days (especially when you don't know their personality.)

Oh well lol

[That One Girl]

After seeing Us, I'm convinced that it's going to come very, very close to matching IT's OW numbers.

[tonytr87]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

After seeing Us, I'm convinced that it's going to come very, very close to matching IT's OW numbers.

 

How was the audience?

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

How was the audience?

 

Saw it in Times Square (mainly for audience reaction purposes) and the crowd loved it.  Clapping, laughing, screaming, all of that frequently throughout the movie.

[MattW]

I was kidding about under glass, but 8pm thursday isn't the final total?  The weekend has started, if that's not the final then what is?

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, MattW said:

I was kidding about under glass, but 8pm thursday isn't the final total?  The weekend has started, if that's not the final then what is?

Final as in after the weekend is complete

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, MattW said:

I was kidding about under glass, but 8pm thursday isn't the final total?  The weekend has started, if that's not the final then what is?

The Halloween numbers in that comp include all the fandango sales for the weekend, including sales made Fri, Sat, Sun      

 

Or at least, I’m pretty sure that’s what they are.

[tonytr87]

Not seeing any sellouts in my area tonight but I've only checked a handful of theaters. 

[EconomySize]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

The Halloween numbers in that comp include all the fandango sales for the weekend, including sales made Fri, Sat, Sun    

As of COB Thurs the numbers were (one hour to go in Us):

	US	Halloween	Glass	Nun
Thursday	42650	39608	29923	27817
Friday	34389	39096	10901	19253
Saturday	18887	15002	2901	7502
Sunday	5450	3877	741	1805
	101376	97583	44466	56377
OW		76.2	40.3	53.8
Ratio		1.039	2.280	1.800
Forecast		79.16	91.87	96.74

However, it should be noted that walkups may be muted by the NCAA tourney.  Deadline is predicting 4-5 mil thursday, which would put (via model) the OW between 54 and 66, which doesn't seem like too far off.  If the thursday numbers get a little higher, based on higher fandango numbers, it could go 70+, but incorporating deadline, I'd say 60ish is probably closer to target, with a little more upside tail on the distribution than downside.

Edited March 22, 2019 by EconomySize
table formatting