The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

HOLY SHIT YA BOY GOT MENTIONED ON REDDIT (I don't know if that's a good thing or not )

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/b3ncj5/na_well_us_just_went_nuts_on_fandango/

 

In case y'all want more info or other comps, then please enjoy! 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

It's ya boy Lil' CE!

 

Statistics, yep!

 

 

 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

HOLY SHIT YA BOY GOT MENTIONED ON REDDIT (I don't know if that's a good thing or not )

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/b3ncj5/na_well_us_just_went_nuts_on_fandango/

  

In case y'all want more info or other comps, then please enjoy! 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

The box office subreddit is pretty solid there. Definitely has gotten more knowledgeable over the last few years (and grown quite a bit). Though they pull most of their info from here.

[MrGlass2]

If all the signs say $80M+ OW, then it means $80M+ OW - no matter how hard it is to believe. Be ready for an amazing breakout.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Us is #1 on MT:

 

1	31.9%	Us
2	31.1%	Captain Marvel
3	8.2%	Wonder Park
4	5.2%	Five Feet Apart
5	4.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

[That One Girl]

If you wanna get crazy

 

we can get CRAZY

[PenguinHyphy]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Thanks for all the numbers...if I was picking a "best" comp, I do like the Venom or Deadpool 2 ones the best, just b/c this does have more of a presale factor than regular horror AND we've been adding more and more reserved seating the last few months (so more and more reason to buy, thus skewing into a more presale heavy movie than a regular horror from last year)...

 

I'm gonna stay with $60M+ just b/c we've seen a lot of presale heaviness lately that didn't quite lead those openers to open as high as we thought...better to be wildly happy after the weekend than disappointed, but I'm rooting for this film:)...

 

Now, last weekend, we did finally have 2 films beat tracking by $5M (which was an enormous % for their expected OW), so I'm not as worried about tracking being pretty low for this movie...since tracking isn't perfect:)...(last week, BOP had Us at $48M and Deadline has it this week at $45-$50M)...

That is not the truth. Tracking, which is out about a month prior and based upon a numbers of things, has been off with some movies this year; however, the pre sales on Fandango have correctly predicted big openings. For instance, the Fandango pre sales for Glass the week of release actually pointed to the movie going nowhere near the $70,000,000 tracking number. The same applies to that Lego movie, but people just kept bringing up tracking, which is not the same as pre sales. Us, is in a situation similar to Captain Marvel where its Fandango pre sales suggest that it is going to open way higher than the tracking numbers. It is not a franchise either, so it is even more impressive that Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Captain Marvel, Incredibles 2 and Avengers: Infinity War are the only movies with higher Wednesday Fandango numbers the release week according to the data. 

Edited March 21, 2019 by PenguinHyphy

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I do wanna see how much Us increases today on Fandango. Halloween had a massive bump on Thursday, will be interesting to see if Us can come close to the % increase (it's gonna go over it in total).

[Brainbug]

Exciting times.

 

After the wasteland that was January and early February im beginning to remember why i find the box office so fascinating.

[dakus]

@CoolEric258 what time do you do the Thursday cutoff for the Fandango comps? Is it the same as other days or different due to previews? 

Edited March 21, 2019 by dakus

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, dakus said:

@CoolEric258 what time do you do the Thursday cutoff for the Fandango comps? Is it the same as other days or different due to previews? 

Same as other days

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

That is not the truth. Tracking, which is out about a month prior and based upon a numbers of things, has been off with some movies this year; however, the pre sales on Fandango have correctly predicted big openings. For instance, the Fandango pre sales for Glass the week of release actually pointed to the movie going nowhere near the $70,000,000 tracking number. The same applies to that Lego movie, but people just kept bringing up tracking, which is not the same as pre sales. Us, is in a situation similar to Captain Marvel where its Fandango pre sales suggest that it is going to open way higher than the tracking numbers. It is not a franchise either, so it is even more impressive that Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Captain Marvel, Incredibles 2 and Avengers: Infinity War are the only movies with higher Wednesday Fandango numbers the release week according to the data. 

Yes, I know the difference...

 

We had presales for Captain Marvel indicating a higher opener than it did...we had presales for Alita indicating a higher opener than it did...

 

Presales are getting heavier, there's no question...so, we have to be a little more careful seeing high sales and saying "it's going as huge as they indicate"...

[Krissykins]

9 hours ago, DAJK said:

Holy FUCK at those Fandango comps

 

guess we know the trick to selling horror is to incorporate creepy remixes of songs you wouldn’t associate with horror. Can’t wait for the next Blumhouse joint to hit us with an eerie rendition of Shania Twain and “Any Man of Mine”

That unassuming song in the horror trailer idea has been ongoing since 2003 with Texas Chainsaw Massacre. 

 

Yes to Shania though 😂😂

[TomeRide]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

HOLY SHIT YA BOY GOT MENTIONED ON REDDIT (I don't know if that's a good thing or not )

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/b3ncj5/na_well_us_just_went_nuts_on_fandango/

 

In case y'all want more info or other comps, then please enjoy! 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

I'm the one who made that post, lol. 

 

You'd be surprised at how many people from the sub are lurking here, myself included, of course. 

[Biggestgeekever]

Considering the strong fandango and MT ticket sales, along with how much theaters near me are booking this tonight, $7-8M for previews seems like the ticket. Maybe $6M if it's very presale heavy, but I think getting around Halloween is looking good.

[el sid]

Pulse 8:35-8:49 EST:

Us: 404/15 minutes – yesterday it were 230/15, up 76%; annoyingly I didn't count Glass or Halloween on Thursday so today I take Captain Marvel for comparison which had 859/15 same day and time of the day, Escape Room (18.2M OW) had 36/15.
 

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

Us: 717/15 minutes – yesterday 386/15, up 86%; Captain Marvel had ca. 1.500/15 at that time, Escape Room (of course a complete non-sequel) 80/15.

From presales alone Us is definitely still on track for ca. 75-80M. I just don't have complete trust in it exactly because of CM performing a little bit under what Fandango suggested (I remember that some members did do a bit different Fandango-analysis which suggested a 150M opening but in these 15 minutes-countings it looked indeed more like CM will open closer to 200M than 150M). OTOH this 75-80M number above is already in comparison with the presales-heavy CM. Plus, I feared every day that the presales will slow down and nothing happened . And without totally underwhelming walk ups (and why should they be bad) I for sure can't imagine an opening as „low“ (54M) as proboxoffice.com predicts.

MT:
#1 Us 36.7% - Halloween had ca. 39% at that time, Glass 14.7% and The Nun ca. 38%
#2 CM 29.6%
#3 Wonder Park 6.6%
#4 HtTYD3 4.7%
#5 Five Feet Apart 4.4%

 

[Ledmonkey96]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Well, that's the rumor. Still not confirmed, hence "looming".  But the rumor passes the smell test, IMO.

 

Find out soon enuf.

Huh. Theater I work at isn't starting presales till April 2nd, wouldn't be too surprised if it moves up though.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Huh. Theater I work at isn't starting presales till April 2nd, wouldn't be too surprised if it moves up though.

Well, Internet Gossiping has been wrong before.

 

If you have actually been told the 2nd, I'd believe that a heck of a lot more than gossip on the Intrawebs.

[Porthos]

Speaking of which, I did do some checking from this time last year.  Apparently the initial rumor for a concrete day/time broke on reddit from someone who had privileged information by working in a theater.  Jeremy Conrad then confirmed it on his twitter feed a little while later.

 

What I didn't check for, and that includes diving back through this thread, is exactly when the official announcement was made about when tickets would go on sale.

 

As far as I know, Jeremy Conrad is just hinting that it's going to be soon.  He hasn't actually committed to a date like he did last year.

[Ledmonkey96]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of which, I did do some checking from this time last year.  Apparently the initial rumor for a concrete day/time broke on reddit from someone who had privileged information by working in a theater.  Jeremy Conrad then confirmed it on his twitter feed a little while later.

 

What I didn't check for, and that includes diving back through this thread, is exactly when the official announcement was made about when tickets would go on sale.

 

As far as I know, Jeremy Conrad is just hinting that it's going to be soon.  He hasn't actually committed to a date like he did last year.

My manager sent an E-mail saying corporate was starting pre-sales on the 2nd but things could move.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Porthos]

One last bit.  I did raise an eyebrow this morning when I saw this on his Twitter feed:

 

 

That kinda smells like a walkback to me, but soft enough to be nearly meaningless.

 

(Yes, yes, he never said tickets would be on sale tomorrow.  He just helped along the rumor with the ticket scene from Willy Wonka Twitter post - that's why I have been calling it rumors the last 12 plus hours or so)