THE INCREDIBLES II | 634.2 M overseas ● 1242.8 M worldwide

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

Still not sure. Presales in Japan look strong, but considering the recent weakness of Pixar in that country overtaking Dory is still a "maybe". Also, Germany is slowly but relentlessly becoming some sort of Uzbekistan in terms of box office revenues, and in the good old times it did support Nemo much more than the Incredibles. Let's see. Range is 1.24 to 1.3B.

 

Edit: disappointing OD in Japan, Corpse is projecting a sub-50M finish o_o

 

Not completely unexpected given Pixar's recent struggles and the superhero theme of I2.  A total around the first film doesn't seem too bad in retrospect. But I suspect TS4 will also see a large decline from TS3 next year like Dory from Nemo. 

[Mojoguy]

What happened to I2 Presales in Japan looking strong?

[KP1025]

21 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

What happened to I2 Presales in Japan looking strong?

I'm guessing the local movie breaking out big has affected it somewhat.

[CoolK]

from corpse:

 

Wednesday (08/01)
¥400 million ($3.6 million), 0, ¥2.490 billion ($22.4 million), Code Blue (Day 6)
¥255 million ($2.3 million), 0, ¥255.0 million ($2.3 million), Incredibles 2 (NEW)
¥155 million ($1.4 million), +02%, ¥5.305 billion ($47.3 million), Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Day 20)
¥85 million ($760,000), -01%, ¥1.390 billion ($12.6 million), Mirai of the Future (Day 13)
¥80 million ($715,000), 0, ¥80.00 million ($715,000), Sensei Kunshun (NEW)
¥65 million ($580,000), -10%, ¥1.815 billion ($16.3 million), Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Day 20)
¥18 million ($160,000), 0, ¥18.00 million ($160,000), Blue Summer (NEW)
¥17 million ($150,000), -31%, ¥404.0 million ($3.6 million), Bleach (Day 13)
¥15 million ($135,000), -22%, ¥2.036 billion ($18.4 million), Solo: A Star Wars Story (Day 34)
¥12 million ($110,000), -34%, ¥4.239 billion ($38.3 million), Shoplifters (Day 55)
__________
¥2 million ($20,000), -65%, ¥8.686 billion ($79.3 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Day 111)

% changes versus same day last week.

Wednesday wasn't quite as strong as I was anticipating, but it was still strong as we get closer to Obon Festival in less than two weeks.

Code Blue is showing no signs of frontloading that TV drama adaptations sometimes experience, and is definitely going to be a contender for the 2018 yearly crown now. I still believe Fuji TV's "expected" ¥10 billion total is too high, but ¥8/9 billion ($70-80 million+) is currently realistic.

Incredibles 2 had a good first day, but I was expecting a bit more. There's really no good comparisons to other Disney/Pixar films because of the Wednesday release, so we'll have to watch how it performs on a day-to-day basis before making any good comparisons. If anything, its first day likely suggests it's not going to breakout, really, and will probably finish around the norm of a Pixar film -- ¥4/5 billion ($40/50 million). 

The first film grossed ¥5.26 billion, so if it can match/exceed that, it'd be a success... but it's very clear that Japanese audiences just aren't accepting of Pixar sequels. Aside from Toy Story 3, which benefited from Pixar establishing itself after the release of the first two Toy Story films, every Pixar sequel has dropped from its predecessor in the market. 

Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer lost its biggest amount of theaters yet on Wednesday, and it definitely felt the blow. I'll continue to track it for as long as I can, though, since it's the film Jurassic World 2 and Code Blue need to beat first, before possibly one another, to win the 2018 yearly crown.

[PanaMovie]

Pixar’s Incredibles 2 added $19m from 42 territories for $463.9m, consolidating on last weekend’s $1bn-plus tally to reach $1.047bn worldwide and rank as the fourth highest animated release in history and the 27th highest release overall.

 

The animation debuted in Japan over five days on $7.7m ($3.5m for the Saturday-Sunday portion), and arrived top in Spain on $4.5m. Saturday’s gross registered the second highest ever for an animation. The family release became the highest grossing Disney Animation/Pixar release of all-time in New Zealand as well as the highest grossing Pixar release of all-time in Taiwan.

 

Source: Screen Daily 

 

I could see 

 

595M OS

600M DOM

 

1,195B WW

[Quigley]

Disney is days away from crossing $6B WW for the year (total atm is north of $5.95B). This is the third year in a row it achieves this milestone. $7B by the end of the year is guaranteed. The all-time record ($7.6B) achieved by Disney is not out of reach. Same stands for $8B.

[John Marston]

The Japan  performance guarantees this finished under FK worldwide. Oh well

[A Marvel Fanboy]

3 hours ago, Quigley said:

Disney is days away from crossing $6B WW for the year (total atm is north of $5.95B). This is the third year in a row it achieves this milestone. $7B by the end of the year is guaranteed. The all-time record ($7.6B) achieved by Disney is not out of reach. Same stands for $8B.

With Ralph2, 8B is locked

[CoolK]

9 hours ago, PanaMovie said:

Pixar’s Incredibles 2 added $19m from 42 territories for $463.9m, consolidating on last weekend’s $1bn-plus tally to reach $1.047bn worldwide and rank as the fourth highest animated release in history and the 27th highest release overall.

 

The animation debuted in Japan over five days on $7.7m ($3.5m for the Saturday-Sunday portion), and arrived top in Spain on $4.5m. Saturday’s gross registered the second highest ever for an animation. The family release became the highest grossing Disney Animation/Pixar release of all-time in New Zealand as well as the highest grossing Pixar release of all-time in Taiwan.

 

Source: Screen Daily 

 

I could see 

 

595M OS

600M DOM

 

1,195B WW

I'm not sold on 550mn OS

[KP1025]

53 minutes ago, CoolK said:

I'm not sold on 550mn OS

 

It should reach that without any problems. This weekend was $10 million minus the new openers in Japan and Spain. These holdovers should contribute another $15-20 million. Japan should contribute another $25-30 million and Spain another $15-20 million. Then you have the major markets Germany and Italy, which should contribute around $50 million combined. The other smaller markets left to open should add at least $15 million combined. 

Edited August 6, 2018 by KP1025

[Boxx93]

I don't get it. The original Incredibles did way better overseas than it did domestically percentage-ratio wise. Why did that changed with the sequel? Why is it now making more in the US than overseas?

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Boxx93 said:

I don't get it. The original Incredibles did way better overseas than it did domestically percentage-ratio wise. Why did that changed with the sequel? Why is it now making more in the US than overseas?

Nemo/Dory was a similar case. Nemo (39/61) had a better ratio OS than Incredibles (42/58). But 13 years later, Dory changed to 47/53 with a superb DOM run. And you have to add that Incredibles is about the favorite genre of USA (at least this year). I do not find too strange this climb in DOM percentage.

[fastclock]

With DOM: nostalgia plays a huge role with parents who watched the originals now taking their kids. Not sure OS has that in abundance.

[FantasticBeasts]

3 hours ago, fastclock said:

With DOM: nostalgia plays a huge role with parents who watched the originals now taking their kids. Not sure OS has that in abundance.

I have no data to justify this but moviegoing feels like a way younger sport in Europe than it does in the US to me. At least from what I am hearing from americans in this site.

[Barnack]

How monster big they were domestic is a factor.

 

Other possible factor:

Not popular title in China

Just exchange rate not being as favorable

 

The first incredible played the American Dream, america when it was great 40 year's ago suburb life style., combined with how strong SH got in the US, it is not that surprising that it played so domestic heavy this time.

 

Nemo/Dory is a bigger surprise.

 

[Quigley]

On 8/6/2018 at 3:25 AM, firedeep said:

With Ralph2, 8B is locked

The only issue is that Ralph 2 and Marry Poppins 2 open in many markets after the New Year, so it won't count towards the 2018 gross.

[Omni]

And considering The Nutcracker has bo bomb written on it, 7.6B won't be beaten.

 

Also, about I2's OS performance, here are my thoughts:

 

You have to take into account that movies with OS grosses above 700M usually manage that thanks to a big help from China+Japan.

I2 stands at 465M OS after a 19M weekend. Should reach 530/540 from current markets (Japan will strenghten the multiplier), and 600/620 with the rest (Dory made about 70M combined from the same remaining markets). Let's assume 610M with a 90M China+Japan total (ugh...).
That'd be 520M OS-China-Japan for I2.

Other recent major hits:
Jurassic World 2 > 880M projected total with 330M from China+Japan (assuming a 75M finish in the latter) - meaning 550M OS-China-Japan
Black Panther > 645-(105+15) = 525M OS-C-J
Beauty and the Beast > 760-(110+90) = 560M OS-C-J
Fate of the Furious > 1010-(390+35) = 585M OS-C-J
Despicable Me 3 > 770-(150+70) = 550M OS-C-J
Captain America CW > 745-(180+25) = 540M OS-C-J

Just add the fact that ER managed to get even worse in the last months (especially in LA, where I2 did great) and you see that I2 is perfectly in line with every major blockbuster in the last 2/3 years (even Star Wars barely grossed more than 600M OS-C-J - and of course Infinity War doesn't count). So we just have to blame the key Asia countries for the somehow "modest" OS total (I'd also add South Korea, where the movie just did standard Pixar numbers).

[pepsa]

51 minutes ago, Omni said:

And considering The Nutcracker has bo bomb written on it, 7.6B won't be beaten.

 

Also, about I2's OS performance, here are my thoughts:

 

You have to take into account that movies with OS grosses above 700M usually manage that thanks to a big help from China+Japan.

I2 stands at 465M OS after a 19M weekend. Should reach 530/540 from current markets (Japan will strenghten the multiplier), and 600/620 with the rest (Dory made about 70M combined from the same remaining markets). Let's assume 610M with a 90M China+Japan total (ugh...).
That'd be 520M OS-China-Japan for I2.

Other recent major hits:
Jurassic World 2 > 880M projected total with 330M from China+Japan (assuming a 75M finish in the latter) - meaning 550M OS-China-Japan
Black Panther > 645-(105+15) = 525M OS-C-J
Beauty and the Beast > 760-(110+90) = 560M OS-C-J
Fate of the Furious > 1010-(390+35) = 585M OS-C-J
Despicable Me 3 > 770-(150+70) = 550M OS-C-J
Captain America CW > 745-(180+25) = 540M OS-C-J

Just add the fact that ER managed to get even worse in the last months (especially in LA, where I2 did great) and you see that I2 is perfectly in line with every major blockbuster in the last 2/3 years (even Star Wars barely grossed more than 600M OS-C-J - and of course Infinity War doesn't count). So we just have to blame the key Asia countries for the somehow "modest" OS total (I'd also add South Korea, where the movie just did standard Pixar numbers).

Great analysis !

I do think that the bad release date in SK is to blame. I2 had MI6 on its second weekend (it's not super bad, but SK does give a lot of screens to big new releases so I2 lost a lot of screens and show times.) In its 3rd week it had the mega hit AlongWithTheGods (you probably know about this, but doing 6.2m admission on OW is insane.) So I2 practically lost all it's big screens and a big chunk of its overall show times. I2 also had stronger weekdays so I guess it was playing more adult heavy audience compared to FD so competition is a bigger factor. 

 

Anyway your method of subtracting OS-China/Japan does give a stunningly even result for most big blockbusters not (Avengers or other big break-out hits). (Post 2012)

Edited August 8, 2018 by pepsa

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

And considering The Nutcracker has bo bomb written on it, 7.6B won't be beaten.

Ho

Also, about I2's OS performance, here are my thoughts:

 

You have to take into account that movies with OS grosses above 700M usually manage that thanks to a big help from China+Japan.

I2 stands at 465M OS after a 19M weekend. Should reach 530/540 from current markets (Japan will strenghten the multiplier), and 600/620 with the rest (Dory made about 70M combined from the same remaining markets). Let's assume 610M with a 90M China+Japan total (ugh...).
That'd be 520M OS-China-Japan for I2.

Other recent major hits:
Jurassic World 2 > 880M projected total with 330M from China+Japan (assuming a 75M finish in the latter) - meaning 550M OS-China-Japan
Black Panther > 645-(105+15) = 525M OS-C-J
Beauty and the Beast > 760-(110+90) = 560M OS-C-J
Fate of the Furious > 1010-(390+35) = 585M OS-C-J
Despicable Me 3 > 770-(150+70) = 550M OS-C-J
Captain America CW > 745-(180+25) = 540M OS-C-J

Just add the fact that ER managed to get even worse in the last months (especially in LA, where I2 did great) and you see that I2 is perfectly in line with every major blockbuster in the last 2/3 years (even Star Wars barely grossed more than 600M OS-C-J - and of course Infinity War doesn't count). So we just have to blame the key Asia countries for the somehow "modest" OS total (I'd also add South Korea, where the movie just did standard Pixar numbers).

There are quite some exceptions though since 2012 (before that I think HP, LTR, Avatar, Titanic and PotC were basically the only movies that did it.)

The only movies that got past 600M for OS-Ch-J are

IW $955M

TLJ $603M

TFA $ 909.4M

JW $716.1M

AoU $679.9M

Minions $712.2M

IM 3 $659.4M

Hobbit 2 $611.6M

Skyfall $712.5M

Avengers $763.4M

Hobbit 1 $649.2M

Ice Age 4 $620M

 

And here basically IW and TFA stand out as they are basically close too 200M ahead of everyone but Avengers and would and Avatar and Titanic would be even further ahead by a lot more.

And the others would all join the 600-715M club.

Edited August 8, 2018 by Taruseth

[pepsa]

10 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

There are quite some exceptions though since 2012 (before that I think HP, LTR, Avatar, Titanic and PotC were basically the only movies that did it.)

The only movies that got past 600M for OS-Ch-J are

IW $955M

TLJ $603M

TFA $ 909.4M

JW $716.1M

AoU $679.9M

Minions $712.2M

IM 3 $659.4M

Hobbit 2 $611.6M

Skyfall $712.5M

Avengers $763.4M

Hobbit 1 $649.2M

Ice Age 4 $620M

 

And here basically IW and TFA stand out as they are basically close too 200M ahead of everyone but Avengers and would and Avatar and Titanic would be even further ahead by a lot more.

And the others would all join the 600-715M club.

Yeah it doesn't work for every EU heavy movie. But the EU revenue isn't getting bigger and China is only growing. So I am guessing for the next few years (till LA/Asia gets bigger and ER gets better) we will se a lot of big movies between 500m-700m OS-China/Japan. Obviously IW2 will fly past 700m OS-China/Japan.