THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[MattW]

Looks like a good chance it'll end up right around Avatar's final.  That could be an interesting horserace

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, redgarlic68 said:

Coco's hold is the best news for me this weekend. Nice to see TLJ doing fine.

Yeah. That 8 odd early number was always hokum. Was hoping 11 but 10 is great.

2.7 less than Moana's 12.7 but feel it's a temporary discrepancy.

 

Tangled had an 8.8 weekend and added 72 more to it's cume. With 10 weekend and 80 more (same as Tangled legs now on) it will do 231 dom. And if you give better legs cause this weekend took a hard hit due to SW8 then closer to 240 than 230 seems more realistic.

 

3

1

Coco

BV

$10,025,000

-45.7%

3,155

-593

$3,177

$150,810,896

-

4

Edited December 17, 2017 by a2knet

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

Looks like a good chance it'll end up right around Avatar's final.  That could be an interesting horserace

Disney vs Disney 

 

Needs 3.4x to get to Avatar, same multi as RO.

[filmlover]

 

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Overseas opening is down about 18% From TFA.

 

Its fine, means 700 is the target overseas 

Wait this is a definitely off.

 

Overseas was $230m. It’s holiday season and it hasn’t opened in China yet. More like $900m. $700m is lowballing. 

[George Parr]

27 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Overseas opening is down about 18% From TFA.

 

Its fine, means 700 is the target overseas 

While I see 700-800m as the likely range, I don't really know how you get from being down 18% to 700m. TFA finished with over 1.1b internationally. TLJ would need to fall around 30% to fall below 800m, and a whole lot more to get down to 700m.

 

 

24 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Based on last time the dates matched, i don't think so. Who knows, though, Star Wars saturates the market such that spillover is a factor....

I'm not sure if those comparisons match up though. If you look at TFA and Avatar, both having the same schedule, both dropped a lot less than basically all the other movies on the first Sunday. The Hobbit also dropped less than all the movies around it. So while the last year that had the same schedule as this year suggests pretty big drops, it could very well be that it doesn't affect a big blockbuster in the same way.

Edited December 17, 2017 by George Parr

[JonathanLB]

Am I wrong to say that $1.5B worldwide (or more) appears likely? TFA opened to $520-something million worldwide without China, and made about 4x that global debut. If TLJ made just above 3x its global debut it would hit $1.5B. Any reason at present to think that’s unrealistic? I don’t know foreign markets as well and whatnot.

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Wait this is a definitely off.

 

Overseas was $230m. It’s holiday season and it hasn’t opened in China yet. More like $900m. $700m is lowballing. 

It's supposedly set to collapse in China compared to TFA. 

 

Even if it does...it's likely still going to do over $800m.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Wait this is a definitely off.

 

Overseas was $230m. It’s holiday season and it hasn’t opened in China yet. More like $900m. $700m is lowballing. 

I think 230*3 = 690 and 60 China gives 750. Maybe 800-825 OS, but can't see 900.

[George Parr]

Interestingly enough, the 220m are just a tad below the opening week of Rogue One (~222m)

[VGPOP]

There is no way this movie is dropping 19.9%. Disney playing it safe. I'd say this movie goes for $56 million Sunday.

 

Disney may do some fudging to get it to $225 million even, but I think it falls short a few 100 k's.

 

Just my take.

[a2k]

Unless actuals come in lower, it did go over JL's cume. Holy porgs.

 

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,047,000	-	4,232	-	$51,996	$220,047,000	-	1
2	N	Ferdinand	Fox	$13,325,000	-	3,621	-	$3,680	$13,325,000	$111	1
3	1	Coco	BV	$10,025,000	-45.7%	3,155	-593	$3,177	$150,810,896	-	4
4	3	Wonder	LGF	$5,400,000	-36.1%	3,047	-472	$1,772	$109,256,738	-	5
5	2	Justice League	WB	$4,170,000	-56.9%	2,702	-806	$1,543	$219,456,347	-	5

[Eric Duncan]

Quick thoughts:

 

-Star Wars did absolutely phenomenal. It dropped only about 11% or so from TFA, which is even more impressive, and will likely lead to Avatar numbers, and it really shows just how much of a monster Star Wars really is, and it'll be interesting to see what Solo will do in arguably the most competitive road the Disney SW have had to face.

 

-Ferdinand was somewhat disappointing. It will probably leg its way to Road Chip numbers, but I feel it would have done much better on a different weekend. Why put an animated movie up against Star Wars, a massive family brand, in the first place? I feel if it was moved to Christmas weekend, or even its original July date, or even an early November date, it would have had a much better chance at crossing $100M.

 

-Coco dropping only 45%, possibly lower due to the film's Sunday drops (bless you, Hispanic audiences) is awesome. Hopefully Jumanji doesn't hurt it, and it can get to Moana numbers (or BH6 is fine)

 

-The Oscar expanders did rather well...except for Wonder Wheel of course.

[filmlover]

Just now, a2knet said:

Unless actuals come in lower, it did go over JL's cume. Holy porgs.

 

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,047,000	-	4,232	-	$51,996	$220,047,000	-	1
2	N	Ferdinand	Fox	$13,325,000	-	3,621	-	$3,680	$13,325,000	$111	1
3	1	Coco	BV	$10,025,000	-45.7%	3,155	-593	$3,177	$150,810,896	-	4
4	3	Wonder	LGF	$5,400,000	-36.1%	3,047	-472	$1,772	$109,256,738	-	5
5	2	Justice League	WB	$4,170,000	-56.9%	2,702	-806	$1,543	$219,456,347	-	5

[FlashMaster659]

Industry figures are around $219M for the weekend. Matinees aren’t slowing down one bit. Currently, we’re hearing that Last Jedi gets to $223M-$224M potentially.

[Marek the Jedi]

so 220mil weekend is very very nice result!!
hopefully this can end with around 780mil and 3.55 mlp or can it touch 800?

 

Marek

[Morieris]

I'm loving Deadline blowing up my email inbox every two hours with THE LAST JEDI ESTIMATES ARE LIKE JESUS; THEY'VE RISEN AGAIN!

[Brainbug]

Star Wars in December is the box office gold mine of the 2010s.

 

1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$247,966,675	26.5%	4,134	$59,982	$936,662,225	12/18/15
2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,047,000	100.0%	4,232	$51,996	$220,047,000	12/15/17
3	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$155,081,681	29.1%	4,157	$37,306	$532,177,324	12/16/16

Edited December 17, 2017 by Brainbug

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

Star Wars in December is the box office gold mine of the 2010s.

 

2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,047,000	100.0%	4,232	$51,996	$220,047,000	12/15/17

 

Damn, The Last Jedi is frontloaded.

[JonathanLB]

I would love $223–224M, I would have been within 2% or so with my $227M guess. Could have been better if I didn’t get weird and just went with $225M but I wanted to be “different” - why not $2M under $225M not over lol damnit.