4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[BK007]

8 minutes ago, The Shape of Pasta said:

Coco is nearly on point with Happy Feet right now, if not a little higher. Keeping that up, it should land in the 200-210m. 

I know the Deadline number was a joke, being 61% overestimated (fuck Deadline), but even considering that, it's been pretty poor for Coco for the last week and a half.

 

We can talk about different holidays etc. but even so, there's nowhere it is going to able to make up those numbers against Moana.

 

In fact, I want to reiterate the point about there being an inherently, strictly worse way the schedule can line up, and there is no real overcoming it. After all, the way a schedule falls influences people to do different things. Sometimes it works out for movies better, and sometimes it doesn't.

 

I don't care about Star Wars, but it is clearly suffering from it too (as is everything else) in addition to losing the hype/event status of TFA & mixed WOM.

[the beast]

Projections:

 

TLJ

24.7M

33.5M (+35%)

18.4M (-45%)

37.5M (+105%)

114M 4 day Weekend

 

Jumanji: 

12.5M (+65%)

15M (+20%)

7.9M (-47.5%)

16M (+100%)

51.4M 4 day Weekend / 68M 6 day Weekend

 

 

 

[Random2]

I've... seen things you people wouldn't believe...
Threads on fire off the Box Office Theory Forum
I watched @That One Guy and @WrathOfHan kissing in the dark
Near the classic conversation thread. 
All those... moments... will be lost in time...
Like tears... in... rain.
Time... to sign out...

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I agree this is not much of a Han or no Han for the most part (is absence was well known opening weekend...)

 

But how sequel movie play did change a lot from ESB time vs now, during the 70s early 80s, movie were mostly seen in theater, so the possible audience for the sequels were just among people that had seen the first one in theater, that by definition will always go down, from back to the future, Godfather 2, no matter how good the movie was. I think rules of thumb, if everything went right you lost around 30% of the business on sequels back in these days. And attack of the clones is I think universally seen has the worst entry of the series. Making in both case the comparable a bit of a low bar for Last Jedi.

 

Now Force Awake was on Netflix for a very long time and sequels can hold better because of this, that said Force Awaken was such a big hit that maybe it does not matter (completely saturated the possible audience for ticket buyers), that I was expecting it to play like those old sequels than the newer franchise that didn't drop (Potter-Lords of the Rings that was gaining new audience via the books/home video after the first movie entry). 

LOTR definitely didn't max out with FOTR so there was room for growth which happened. I won't get into superiority of FOTR vs TFA, but TFA had no way to go but down from that number. 

 

Moreover, I don't think that TFA has an actual staying power. IMO, it's a movie with some great scenes to catch on YT and also some skippable stuff. Just like TLJ that has 2 Resistance subplots that will not age well at all. That could affect enthusiasm 2 years after "SW is back" hype. 

[Brainbug]

That Coco drop from estimates is just sad

 

I really thought this movie would have no problem whatsoever to cruise past 200M.

 

And yeah, that SW number isnt good at all. I wont freak out about it though, because the holiday pattern this year is just so different.

[hw64]

19 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

“There’s no way Last Jedi will increase anywhere near 50%.”

 

I will wait until late tonight but trust me when I say I will be back to say I told you so. I’ve waited all week - and some people will be paying up for their shitty predictions. 

Yes, well done JonathanLB, well done.

 

HOWEVER

[John Marston]

45 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Yep, I said that in TLJ thread some time ago as my reasoning that the BO would be limited.

 

 

Not true. The Luke cliffhanger is why this opened to 220m and not lower

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, the beast said:

Projections:

 

TLJ

24.7M

33.5M (+35%)

18.4M (-45%)

37.5M (+105%)

114M 4 day Weekend

That Saturday jump is way too big and the Sunday drop is way too small.

[MikeQ]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

While Coco did increase much higher on Friday (+41.2%) than Moana (+13.9%) on the same Friday, it hasn’t closed the gap as much as I had expected it to overall. So, I’ll concede I was wrong on this one. Let’s see how it does next week.

 

I have to remind myself to stay open and not get too sure of myself when it comes to box office, especially in the varying and exciting December holidays.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That Saturday jump is way too big and the Sunday drop is way too small.

Agree on the Saturday jump, but the Sunday drop isn't way too small, it most likely will be to small (drop around 51-53%) and could happen as TFA and RO also hat 'good' Christmas Eve holds.

[titanic2187]

16 minutes ago, the beast said:

Projections:

 

TLJ

24.7M

33.5M (+35%)

18.4M (-45%)

37.5M (+105%)

114M 4 day Weekend

 

Jumanji: 

12.5M (+65%)

15M (+20%)

7.9M (-47.5%)

16M (+100%)

51.4M 4 day Weekend / 68M 6 day Weekend

 

 

 

And your monday's up was too big, no way it can increase 100% from that already huge sunday's number

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

And your monday's up was too big, no way it can increase 100% from that already huge sunday's number

Eh, I don't think it's impossible to double the Sunday number.

[RyneOh1040]

I'm glad to see TLJ underperforming if nothing else for the sake of everyone in here to remember that historical trends are just that.....history.  Seems like anytime someone who hasn't loved the film or has called into question it's legs someone is there to yell 'IT CAN'T DO LESS THAN A 3.5 MULTIPLIER, IT'S NEVER HAPPENED.'  And though the Friday number may just be muted and it gets back on track it still at least ALLOWS for discussion that maybe this isn't connecting with a big number of people (as a few of us have tried to suggest) or maybe repeat viewings just aren't that high.

 

MovieMan in particular has had some really good posts that have constantly been shut down based off the same old replies of 'it's star wars it won't happen'.  It just very well may.  A discussion is what this place should be, and with a property like SW I expect some people to get a little heated but lately I feel like a lot of people have forgotten that every once in a while a film comes along that doesn't follow the norms for good or for worse.  And we need to allow for there to be space to discuss those without feeling like we're being called an idiot.

Edited December 23, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[Fancyarcher]

That Star Wars number is relatively poor, but it's still going to make a crap ton of money regardless. Per usual our expectations were set too high. Plus clearly WOM is in fact mixed. 

Edited December 23, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[cannastop]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

And your monday's up was too big, no way it can increase 100% from that already huge sunday's number

I'm looking at 2006, and I don't see how it's too big of an increase.

[scabab]

Down from $118 million to just $102 million?

 

I knew this wasn't gonna get to $700 million.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I'm glad to see TLJ underperforming if nothing else for the sake of everyone in here to remember that historical trends are just that.....history.  Seems like anytime someone who hasn't loved the film or has called into question it's legs someone is there to yell 'IT CAN'T DO LESS THAN A 3.5 MULTIPLIER, IT'S NEVER HAPPENED.'  And though the Friday number may just be muted and it gets back on track it still at least ALLOWS for discussion that maybe this isn't connecting with a big number of people (as a few of us have tried to suggests) or maybe repeat viewings just aren't that high.

 

MovieMan in particular has had some really good posts that have constantly been shut down based off the same old replies of 'it's star wars it won't happen'.  It just very well may.  A discussion is what this place should be, and with a property like SW I expect some people to get a little heated but lately I feel like a lot of people have forgotten that every once in a while a film comes along that doesn't follow the norms for good or for worse.  And we need to allow for there to be space to discuss those without feeling like we're being called an idiot.

Amen:). (Edit: And dang my used-up likes!)

 

Following the box office means you get to watch the "impossible" (both good and bad) happen almost every year...and it's only "impossible" until the next film does it...

Edited December 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

I'm looking at 2006, and I don't see how it's too big of an increase.

because their daily grosses weren't not that big, the largest was night at the museum with $5.7m on eve, and it barely pass 100% up, and TLJ's number is going to be twice of it, making it is harder to double from sunday's number 

[cannastop]

And to think some people were still talking about $800m dom on Tuesday...

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Not true. The Luke cliffhanger is why this opened to 220m and not lower

fun thing is that the 220 ow didn't seem that front-loaded. ow was 4.9x the previews compared 4.37x for tfa and closer to 5.3x of rogue one. true friday compared to previews and sat bump from true friday were both great. (edit: though will add that tfa's legs were much better than ro overall (3.8x vs 3.4x) so preview:ow ratio is not necessarily an accurate metrics.)

 

maybe sat will again surprise. looking at 2006, sub-10% sat bump seems like it but could pull off low-teens and approach a 15% bump. 9-14% sat bump gives 27-28.

Edited December 23, 2017 by a2knet