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New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by RthDeadWov,

19.8  19.5 
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Posted by EmpireCity,

The Last Jedi should hit right at or slightly above the Sunday estimate.  Same thing with Jumanji.  
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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FTF said:

 

lol TLJ’s bo run is just so fucking weird.  Boring and predictable it is not.

 

Watch it drop today and increase on New Yorks Eve :insane:

 

And @Christmas baumer, i really enjoy talking about TLJ with people like you who didnt like it, but can give valid reasons why the didnt. Its also fascinating to see a blockbuster of that scale divide so many people over "issues" i, for the most part, woud never count as issues to begin with. Its part of what makes movies in general so fun, that they can get so many different reactions from different people, underlining the subjectivity when it comes to any form of art.

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

The 3rd weekend number is not a shock.

 

After burning so much demand, balance just returns to the box office as we saw with RO and TFA on the third weekend. 

 

Tried to say this but some of the loonies around here insisted on predicting something a lot better than Rogue One’s drop. 

 

That Friday number is around 5% ahead of Rogue One’s Friday. This would lead to a 630 total if it continues. Last Jedi should have some nice holiday boost next Tuesday-Thursday compared to Rogue One. But I think sub-650 is very possible.  

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Ghostbusters 2016 was most anticipated comedy of 2016, might not mean much

Ended up the highest grossing comedy of that bunch also:

 

Most Anticipated Summer Comedy:

1. Ghostbusters
2. Central Intelligence
3. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
4. The Nice Guys
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

 

Actual ranking

 

Ghostbuster: 128m

Central Intelligence: 127m

Neighbors2: 55m

Mike and dave: 46m

Nice guy: 36m

 

Almost the same order than that poll, it did miss a not anticipated movie success like Bad Mom, but among aware the correlation between fandango anticipated pool and box office is huge.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

TOTAL 2017 Trailer Stalker Report @Poe Blankeron @That One Guy

 

12:

Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Alien: Covenant, Baywatch, Baby Driver, Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, Atomic Blonde, Logan Lucky, The Dark Tower, It)

Transformers: The Last Knight (Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers, Ghost in the Shell, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Alien: Covenant, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Baywatch, Wonder Woman, The Mummy, It Comes at Night)

 

11:

Daddy’s Home 2 (Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, The House, Despicable Me 3, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wish Upon, Girls Trip, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, The Snowman, Geostorm, Suburbicon)

 

9:

The Commuter (American Assassin, Kingsman, American Made, Blade Runner, The Foreigner, Only the Brave, Thank You for Your Service, Murder on the Orient Express, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

The Dark Tower (King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, It Comes at Night, Baby Driver, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The House, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Big Sick, Wish Upon, Atomic Blonde)

The Mummy (Split, Kong: Skull Island, Life, The Circle, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, Alien: Covenant, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Wonder Woman)

 

8:

Blade Runner 2049 (Alien: Covenant, Baby Driver, Valerian, Dunkirk, Detroit, It, mother!, Battle of the Sexes)

Despicable Me 3 (Sing, The LEGO Batman Movie, Beauty and the Beast, Power Ranges, The Boss Baby, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Cars, Transformers: The Last Knight)

Flatliners (Baby Driver, The House, Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Wind River, It, mother!)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Wonder Woman, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Dunkirk, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League)

Thor: Ragnarok (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, The Mummy, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Valerian, Wish Upon, Atomic Blonde, Only the Brave)

Valerian (The LEGO Batman Movie, Power Rangers, Ghost in the Shell, The Circle, Wonder Woman, The Mummy, Transformers: The Last Knight, War for the Planet of the Apes)

 

7:

American Assassin (47 Meters Down, Baby Driver, War for the Planet of the Apes, The Big Sick, Detroit, Wind River, Good Time)

Downsizing (mother!, Battle of the Sexes, Only the Brave, Thank You for Your Service, Suburbicon, Murder on the Orient Express, Lady Bird)

It (Ghost in the Shell, The Mummy, The House, Atomic Blonde, Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, Wind River)

mother! (Dunkirk, Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, The Dark Tower, Good Time, It)

Murder on the Orient Express (The Mummy, It Comes at Night, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wish Upon, American Made, The Snowman, Only the Brave)

 

6:

Justice League (Wonder Woman, Dunkirk, The Snowman, Only the Brave, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok)

Pitch Perfect 3 (Baby Driver, Despicable Me 3, The Big Sick, Girls Trip, Battle of the Sexes, Happy Death Day)

Roman J. Israel, Esq. (The Foreigner, The Snowman, Only the Brave, Thank You for Your Service, Suburbicon, Murder on the Orient Express)

 

1-5:

Spoiler


5:

All Eyez on Me (John Wick: Chapter 2, Life, The Fate of the Furious, Alien: Covenant, It Comes at Night)

American Made (The Mummy, Dunkirk, Detroit, Logan Lucky, Kingsman: The Golden Circle)

Annabelle: Creation (King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, It Comes at Night, The House, Wish Upon, Girls Trip)

Annihilation (Blade Runner 2049, The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, All the Money in the World, Downsizing)

Atomic Blonde (King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Alien: Covenant, The Mummy, It Comes at Night, War for the Planet of the Apes)

Dunkirk (La La Land, Life, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, Transformers: The Last Knight, War for the Planet of the Apes)

The Emoji Movie (The LEGO Batman Movie, The Boss Baby, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3)

Geostorm (Kong: Skull Island, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, 47 Meters Down, The Big Sick, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Blade Runner 2049)

The Greatest Showman (The House, Despicable Me 3, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Murder on the Orient Express, Wonder)

The Hitman’s Bodyguard (The Circle, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, The House, Atomic Blonde)

Jigsaw (Annabelle: Creation, It, mother!, American Assassin, Happy Death Day)

The LEGO Ninjago Movie (The LEGO Batman Movie, The Boss Baby, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3)

The Nut Job 2 (The LEGO Batman Movie, Power Rangers, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3)

Only the Brave (Dunkirk, Detroit, The Dark Tower, Blade Runner 2049, Battle of the Sexes)

The Snowman (Atomic Blonde, Wind River, mother!, American Made, The Foreigner)

Spider-Man: Homecoming (Power Rangers, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Transformers: The Last Knight)

Suburbicon (Atomic Blonde, Wind River, mother!, Kingsman, American Made)

War for the Planet of the Apes (Logan, Alien: Covenant, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, 47 Meters Down, Transformers: The Last Knight)

Wonder (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, Battle of the Sexes)

Wonder Woman (Beauty and the Beast, Power Rangers, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales)

 

4:

Alpha (The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing)

Alien: Covenant (Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Ghost in the Shell, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX)

Baby Driver (Life, Alien: Covenant, The Mummy, 47 Meters Down)

Black Panther (Valerian, The Dark Tower, Thor: Ragnarok, All the Money in the World)

Coco (Beauty and the Beast, Gifted, Cars 3, The LEGO Ninjago Movie)

Darkest Hour (Atomic Blonde, The Snowman, Thank You for Your Service, Wonder)

Father Figures (American Made, The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, Suburbicon)

The Foreigner (Detroit, American Assassin, Kingsman, Blade Runner)

Happy Death Day (47 Meters Down, Wish Upon, Annabelle: Creation, It)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Ninjago, Kingsman, Justice League, Wonder)

Molly’s Game (The Foreigner, The Snowman, Lady Bird, Downsizing)

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner 2049, Geostorm, Thank You for Your Service, Thor: Ragnarok)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner 2049, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Rough Night (Life, Ghost in the Shell, The Circle, Baywatch)

The Shape of Water (War for the Planet of the Apes, mother!, Battle of the Sexes, Lady Bird)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Good Time, The Foreigner, Thank You for Your Service, Suburbicon)

 

3:

12 Strong (Thank You for Your Service, Murder on the Orient Express, All the Money in the World)

Baywatch (Life, Ghost in the Shell, The Fate of the Furious)

Death Wish (Detroit, It, American Assassin)

Den of Thieves (The Foreigner, Happy Death Day, Geostorm)

Detroit (Baywatch, Transformers: The Last Knight, A Ghost Story)

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (Beauty and the Beast, The Boss Baby, Gifted)

Early Man (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Ferdinand (Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Coco)

Fifty Shades Freed (Murder on the Orient Express, Lady Bird, All the Money in the World)

Friend Request (47 Meters Down, Wish Upon, Annabelle: Creation)

Good Time (It Comes at Night, A Ghost Story, The Hitman’s Bodyguard)

An Inconvenient Sequel (The Circle, Gifted, Baywatch)

The Mountain Between Us (Detroit, Girls Trip, Annabelle: Creation)

The Post (Murder on the Orient Express, The Greatest Showman, All the Money in the World)

Red Sparrow (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Blade Runner 2049, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Sherlock Gnomes (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman)

Wish Upon (Life, 47 Meters Down, Baby Driver)

A Wrinkle in Time (Valerian, Murder on the Orient Express, Coco)

 

2:

All the Money in the World (American Made, Only the Brave)

Avengers: Infinity War (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

The Belko Experiment (John Wick: Chapter 2, Logan)

Birth of the Dragon (Wish Upon, The Hitman’s Bodyguard)

The Boss Baby (Sing, Beauty and the Beast)

Brad’s Status (Logan Lucky, American Assassin)

Captain Underpants (Power Rangers, The Boss Baby)

Cars 3 (Sing, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales)

Everything, Everything (The Circle, Gifted)

A Ghost Story (It Comes at Night, Valerian)

Gifted (La La Land, LEGO Batman)

Girls Trip (Baywatch, The House)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Kong, Ghost in the Shell)

Hostiles (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird)

Incredibles 2 (Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Inhumans (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 IMAX, Dunkirk)

Isle of Dogs (Ninjago, Downsizing)

It Comes at Night (King Arthur, Baywatch)

Kidnap (Valerian, A Ghost Story)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Happy Death Day, Geostorm)

My Little Pony (Captain Underpants, Ninjago)

Peter Rabbit (Coco, The Greatest Showman)

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Beauty and the Beast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

Professor Marston (Spider-Man, The Dark Tower)

Proud Mary (Girls Trip, Happy Death Day)

A Quiet Place (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Snatched (Life, The Circle)

Step (Gifted, Captain Underpants)

Thank You for Your Service (The Dark Tower, American Made)

Tomb Raider (Geostorm, Justice League)

TYLER PERRY’S BOO 2! (Girls Trip, Hitman’s Bodyguard)

Untitled Deadpool Sequel (Justice League, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

The Wall (John Wick: Chapter 2, The Fate of the Furious)

Woodshock (A Ghost Story, Good Time)

 

1:

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

A Bad Moms Christmas (The House)

Battle of the Sexes (Wind River)

The Beguiled (The Circle)

Blockers (Downsizing)

Breathe (Logan Lucky)

Brigsby Bear (A Ghost Story)

The Book of Henry (Gifted)

CHIPS (Kong: Skull Island)

The Circle (La La Land)

The Current War (Wind River)

The Disaster Artist (Lady Bird)

A Dog’s Purpose (La La Land)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

The Fate of the Furious (Ghost in the Shell)

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (All the Money in the World)

Forever My Girl (Wonder)

Game Night (Downsizing)

Ghost in the Shell (Kong: Skull Island)

The Glass Castle (The Big Sick)

Goodbye Christopher Robin (Battle of the Sexes)

Home Again (Logan Lucky)

The House (Baywatch)

How to be a Latin Lover (John Wick: Chapter 2)

I, Tonya (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Insidious: The Last Key (Happy Death Day)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Good Time)

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Kong: Skull Island)

Last Flag Flying (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

The Last Word (John Wick: Chapter 2)

Leap! (The Boss Baby)

LEGO Batman (Sing)

Life (Kong: Skull Island)

Logan Lucky (Annabelle: Creation)

The Lost City of Z (The Fate of the Furious)

Love, Simon (The Greatest Showman)

Lowriders (The Fate of the Furious)

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (The Greatest Showman)

Marshall (Battle of the Sexes)

Monster Trucks (Sing)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman)

Ocean’s 8 (The Greatest Showman)

Olaf’s Frozen Adventure (Cars)

The Party (Lady Bird)

Patti Cake$ (The Big Sick)

Phantom Thread (Suburbicon)

Power Rangers (Beauty and the Beast)

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Wonder)

The Shack (La La Land)

Sicario 2: Soldado (All the Money in the World)

Smallfoot (Coco)

Smurfs: The Lost Village (Beauty and the Beast)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman: The Golden Circle)

Trainspotting 2 (Logan)

True to the Game (Girls Trip)

20th Century Women (La La Land)

The Wedding Plan (Gifted)

Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built (Suburbicon)

The Zookeeper’s Wife (La La Land)

 

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

So, in seriousness, with TLJ possibly looking at the worst holiday multiplier for a decent opener we've ever seen (in the last 20 years anyway - I'm too lazy to go back farther)...when do we get to call the legs run disappointing to bad?  And/or when do we let BvS off the hook for the same type of run without the Xmas season - very good overall number, highly profitable, burned tons of demand in the 1st weekend as a sequel and highly anticipated film, so what could we expect?

 

Or does BvS never get off the hook b/c it's just a worse movie (and I'll agree on this one:) and it tainted JL?  Will TLJ get "on the hook" then if 9 is a JL repeat?

 

I said my standard for bad legs was 2.99x or less after OW (BvS 1.99x +1.0 for the holiday)...and now we are kinda accepting that number as "good"...so, I'm still wondering, where would we have ever said it was "bad" like BvS...I mean 1.99x is impossible in Xmas week with guaranteed screens and showings for 4 weeks...although with this guarantee, doesn't that make this worse?

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, in seriousness, with TLJ possibly looking at the worst holiday multiplier for a decent opener we've ever seen (in the last 20 years anyway - I'm too lazy to go back farther)...when do we get to call the legs run disappointing to bad?  And/or when do we let BvS off the hook for the same type of run without the Xmas season - very good overall number, highly profitable, burned tons of demand in the 1st weekend as a sequel and highly anticipated film, so what could we expect?

 

Or does BvS never get off the hook b/c it's just a worse movie (and I'll agree on this one:) and it tainted JL?  Will TLJ get "on the hook" then if 9 is a JL repeat?

 

I said my standard for bad legs was 2.99x or less after OW (BvS 1.99x +1.0 for the holiday)...and now we are kinda accepting that number as "good"...so, I'm still wondering, where would we have ever said it was "bad" like BvS...I mean 1.99x is impossible in Xmas week with guaranteed screens and showings for 4 weeks...although with this guarantee, doesn't that make this worse?

 

An under 2 multiplier like BvS is just pathetic and atrocious in any time of the year. BvS also tanked the wider DC universe, making the follow-up Justice League the biggest BO disappointment of this year. TLJ wont harm anything that Disney does with the franchise.

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Taruseth Box Office Gold

Taruseth

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, in seriousness, with TLJ possibly looking at the worst holiday multiplier for a decent opener we've ever seen (in the last 20 years anyway - I'm too lazy to go back farther)...when do we get to call the legs run disappointing to bad?  And/or when do we let BvS off the hook for the same type of run without the Xmas season - very good overall number, highly profitable, burned tons of demand in the 1st weekend as a sequel and highly anticipated film, so what could we expect?

 

Or does BvS never get off the hook b/c it's just a worse movie (and I'll agree on this one:) and it tainted BvS?  Will TLJ get "on the hook" then if 9 is a JL repeat?

 

I said my standard for bad legs was 2.99x or less after OW (BvS 1.99x +1.0 for the holiday)...and now we are kinda accepting that number as "good"...so, I'm still wondering, where would we have ever said it was "bad" like BvS...I mean 1.99x is impossible in Xmas week with guaranteed screens and showings for 4 weeks...although with this guarantee, doesn't that make this worse?

I would Say OW amazing, Total a bit dissappointing, especially if it ends close to TA, if it ends over $660.1M the total would be okay, as it would be #3 dom and Legs, well they are bad (especially if it misses the 3x, above 3x would be meh, above 3.2 would be good and 3.4x and above would have been really good).

Edited by Taruseth
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