New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[ThiagoMaia]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Didnt help that BR 2049 - while an absolute masterpiece - was nearly 3 hours long, had slow pacing and dark themes. Not very uplifting. It never seemed like something that could really break out. Ignoring the budget, its BO numbers DOM and Worldwide arent that bad for the kind of artsy-sci-fi-movie it is.

Yeah, I know, my point is exactly that there are more factors, it's not as simple as was suggested. Barnack cited other examples that are not as dark or long as BR2049 and still weren't break outs of the size of Jumanji. 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Does anyone here use Imdb's list feature to make lists? I use it to keep track of my top 100 movies to for Panda's list (by the way, is that still a thing?), But recently they changed the system, and apparently the only way to change the order of titles is change the number of the titles you want to change the order, witch in a 100 titles list is going to take forever. Does anyone know of another way?

Letterboxd.com is better

[ThiagoMaia]

Just now, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Letterboxd.com is better

Thank you for the tip, gonna check it out. But if it's possible I would like to keep using Imdb because I'm used to it, and already have my lists and ratings there.

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I think that people  (@Christmas baumer and a few others) who are suggesting that Vader makes an appearance in IX are really talking about Anakin making an appearance as a Ghost, not Darth Vader in his suit.

 

That would make absolutely 0 sense whatsoever. Why would he have his suit after his death? 

 

...

 

...

 

Except if he wanted to troll a certain someone   

 

That would be so like Vader I hope it happens now LMAO

 

I'm pretty sure @Christmas baumer wants actual Darth Vader?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Thank you for the tip, gonna check it out. But if it's possible I would like to keep using Imdb because I'm used to it, and already have my lists and ratings there.

Use excel tbh

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I think that people  (@Christmas baumer and a few others) who are suggesting that Vader makes an appearance in IX are really talking about Anakin making an appearance as a Ghost, not Darth Vader in his suit.

 

That would make absolutely 0 sense whatsoever. Why would he have his suit after his death? 

 

...

 

...

 

Except if he wanted to troll a certain someone   

 

That would be so like Vader I hope it happens now LMAO

 

 

I think what he means is 

 

 

Kylo Ren wears a Vader suit-mask]

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Thank you for the tip, gonna check it out. But if it's possible I would like to keep using Imdb because I'm used to it, and already have my lists and ratings there.

You can port everything over from IMDb.

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

This is no longer the calendar. This is people not bothering to rush in for this movie, which seems unthinkable. That's the WOM affecting it. It's also Jumanji slowly taking over.

 

@JonathanLB @The Last Panda what are your thoughts?

I'm not entirely sure, it's holds really haven't been great.  I think it's likely a mixture of less repeat value, stronger competition (Jumanji is stronger than Sing and it has a larger crossover appeal into the Star Wars demo), the typical Star Wars sophmore drop, being darker (so less family appeal), some polarized fans (so even less repeat value), a little bit of franchise fatigue (not true fatigue, but there's definitely going to be some casual moviegoers who'd rather see something else.  Unlike Marvel/Comic Books, which has a wider range of visual styles, heroes and stories, Star Wars is always going to be Star Wars.), and a harder calendar could all add up to it.  I doubt it's solely because of any of those, but I think they all have a varying degree of contributing.

 

I'd reckon if you were able to get rid of a few of those factors, you'd probably see a mid-700m range movie instead of mid-600m range movie.  It's hard to point to any of them in particular as a sole cause though, because each one has a strong case to be made (arguably the calendar at this point is probably the weakest, but it's still a factor).  

 

Attack of the Clones and Empire Strikes Back both had sizeable drops from their predecessors (and given the fact that TFA was much bigger than TPM, there was much more room for TLJ to fall), so TLJ fits that story.

 

Jumanji is looking to be a possible 300m live action grosser, that's much more competition than RO or TFA had.  Granted, if there had been no Jumanji, that doesn't mean TLJ's gross would increase by 300m, but you'd be a fool to think it isn't having a sizeable effect on TLJ's holds (especially since when Jumanji has a weaker hold, TLJ seems to have a stronger one and visa versa).  It'll be interesting to see how this effects Solo in May, as it'll have Deadpool 2 the week after it (another movie that'll be a 300m grosser), followed by Ocean's 8, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World.  If Solo's really well received but has stubbier legs, you can definitely look back at a major cause of these holds being Jumanji (and the fact that there's a lot of openers taking up screens, even if they aren't raking in cash).

 

There are polarized fans, I'm still not so sure how much it's polarizing the general audience (as actual measures of GA reception have been positive), but fans are the ones who'll see a SW movie 5-7 times in theaters.  If they downgrade that to only 2-3 times, especially given how big the fanbase is, that definitely effects the movie's legs.  It's one of the reasons darker movies have a harder time with legs, they tend to be a bit more depressing and don't necessarily inspire you to turn out multiple times (obviously there are exceptions, but you tend to see this happen in franchises.  Just look at something like CW being the darkest in MCU's franchise, having the worst legs)

 

The darker tone definitely hurts family appeal at Christmas time, especially when there's an easy and lighter comedic alternative with Jumanji.

 

Then obviously TFA and RO's grosses are still ridiculously high.  There was always going to be some inflation in anticipation for the return of Star Wars, and TLJ is the third SW in three years, you can't maintain that insane level of hype forever.  So you can also see TLJ as the franchise slowly starting to come back down to Earth, yet still insanely high levels.  You still have to remember that 600m+ is a LOT of money.  In fact, SW will be the only franchise with 2 movies over 600m (it's actually the only one with 2 movies over 500m, soon to be 3), and that says quite a bit.  After the initial TFA zeitgeist, the ceiling is obviously going to be lower, we just didn't really know how low.  Despite being a 'polarizing' movie, TLJ is still going to pull an Avengers level total despite having much harder competition.

 

You have to stop and consider how many tickets 600m+ DOM really is, it's a lot, so it's hard to really gauge what's normal at that level.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Sony can cast The Rock/Kevin Hart for Masters of Universe film for 2019

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

I'm not entirely sure, it's holds really haven't been great.  I think it's likely a mixture of less repeat value, stronger competition (Jumanji is stronger than Sing and it has a larger crossover appeal into the Star Wars demo), the typical Star Wars sophmore drop, being darker (so less family appeal), some polarized fans (so even less repeat value), a little bit of franchise fatigue (not true fatigue, but there's definitely going to be some casual moviegoers who'd rather see something else.  Unlike Marvel/Comic Books, which has a wider range of visual styles, heroes and stories, Star Wars is always going to be Star Wars.), and a harder calendar could all add up to it.  I doubt it's solely because of any of those, but I think they all have a varying degree of contributing.

 

I'd reckon if you were able to get rid of a few of those factors, you'd probably see a mid-700m range movie instead of mid-600m range movie.  It's hard to point to any of them in particular as a sole cause though, because each one has a strong case to be made (arguably the calendar at this point is probably the weakest, but it's still a factor).  

 

Attack of the Clones and Empire Strikes Back both had sizeable drops from their predecessors (and given the fact that TFA was much bigger than TPM, there was much more room for TLJ to fall), so TLJ fits that story.

 

Jumanji is looking to be a possible 300m live action grosser, that's much more competition than RO or TFA had.  Granted, if there had been no Jumanji, that doesn't mean TLJ's gross would increase by 300m, but you'd be a fool to think it isn't having a sizeable effect on TLJ's holds (especially since when Jumanji has a weaker hold, TLJ seems to have a stronger one and visa versa).  It'll be interesting to see how this effects Solo in May, as it'll have Deadpool 2 the week after it (another movie that'll be a 300m grosser), followed by Ocean's 8, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World.  If Solo's really well received but has stubbier legs, you can definitely look back at a major cause of these holds being Jumanji (and the fact that there's a lot of openers taking up screens, even if they aren't raking in cash).

 

There are polarized fans, I'm still not so sure how much it's polarizing the general audience (as actual measures of GA reception have been positive), but fans are the ones who'll see a SW movie 5-7 times in theaters.  If they downgrade that to only 2-3 times, especially given how big the fanbase is, that definitely effects the movie's legs.  It's one of the reasons darker movies have a harder time with legs, they tend to be a bit more depressing and don't necessarily inspire you to turn out multiple times (obviously there are exceptions, but you tend to see this happen in franchises.  Just look at something like CW being the darkest in MCU's franchise, having the worst legs)

 

The darker tone definitely hurts family appeal at Christmas time, especially when there's an easy and lighter comedic alternative with Jumanji.

 

Then obviously TFA and RO's grosses are still ridiculously high.  There was always going to be some inflation in anticipation for the return of Star Wars, and TLJ is the third SW in three years, you can't maintain that insane level of hype forever.  So you can also see TLJ as the franchise slowly starting to come back down to Earth, yet still insanely high levels.  You still have to remember that 600m+ is a LOT of money.  In fact, SW will be the only franchise with 2 movies over 600m (it's actually the only one with 2 movies over 500m, soon to be 3), and that says quite a bit.  After the initial TFA zeitgeist, the ceiling is obviously going to be lower, we just didn't really know how low.  Despite being a 'polarizing' movie, TLJ is still going to pull an Avengers level total despite having much harder competition.

 

You have to stop and consider how many tickets 600m+ DOM really is, it's a lot, so it's hard to really gauge what's normal at that level.

Well said. A lot of things just worked against TLJ this time around, proving that Star Wars is not invincible or impervious to any of these factors. It's kind of a sad reality check for me, as I thought this would cruise by $700M and be a tier above JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS.

[cannastop]

So is Jumanji going to pass TLJ in dailies next week?

[Rebeccas]

57 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

They said it's the end of the Skywalker Saga, not all SW movies. And the Saga is still the most important so there's a hook. I'm going with what LF says.

I mean... not really lol 

[TigerPaw]

Almost every film bumped on Friday.. except TLJ.

 

Rank*	Title	Friday 12/29 (Estimates)	Saturday 12/30	Sunday 12/31	Monday 1/1
1	STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Buena Vista 4,232	$19,064,000 -2.2% / $4,505 $483,762,228 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE Sony / Columbia 3,765	$17,750,000 +18.3% / $4,714 $137,005,967 / 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	PITCH PERFECT 3 Universal 3,468	$6,631,000 +7.5% / $1,912 $53,121,470 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Fox 3,316	$5,370,000 +13.3% / $1,619 $38,885,986 / 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	FERDINAND Fox 3,337	$4,500,000 +1.7% / $1,349 $46,660,105 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	COCO Buena Vista 2,104	$2,828,000 +6% / $1,344 $175,200,459 / 38	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD TriStar 2,074	$1,770,000 +27.3% / $853 $8,930,000 / 5	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	DARKEST HOUR Focus Features 943	$1,744,000 +26.4% / $1,849 $14,391,287 / 38	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	DOWNSIZING Paramount 2,664	$1,600,000 +14.9% / $601 $14,058,365 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	WONDER Lionsgate 1,193	$1,242,000 +37.2% / $1,041 $119,550,865 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	FATHER FIGURES Warner Bros. 2,902	$1,230,000 +17.7% / $424 $10,265,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
12	THE SHAPE OF WATER Fox Searchlight 756	$1,170,000 +17% / $1,548 $13,310,155 / 29	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	JUSTICE LEAGUE Warner Bros. 1,101	$420,000 +4.5% / $381 $224,782,455 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

So is Jumanji going to pass TLJ in dailies next week?

Likely. TLJ dropping on a Friday is a good indicator. It's not going to have great legs. Jumanji is taking a lot of business away from it.

[MattW]

It feels like Jumanji should get a bigger Saturday bump than TLJ so yeah, it could very well end up number 1 sometime next week. Possibly Monday? I think next Saturday is more likely

[Rebeccas]

Lol the initial deadline estimate was right after all 

[Brainbug]

@The Last Panda excellent post and i grabbed the adjusted numbers for some movies that were absolute zeitgeist-phenomenons back in their day, delivering BO runs that had experts in awe:

 

38

Spider-Man

Sony

$620,498,800

$403,706,375

2002

 

31

The Dark Knight

WB

$664,959,100

$534,858,444

2008^

 

35

Shrek 2

DW

$634,484,800

$441,226,247

2004

 

 

SW as a franchise is its own league in North America, but these three here are legendary runs that are still highly regarded, for a good reason. TLJ still has a chance to outgross even TDK adjusted, but at the same time, it stopping at 610M, aka under Spider-Man adjusted, still cant be really seen as "bad". These are insane numbers for the 9th film in a 40 year-old franchise and the 3rd film of the franchise in as many years. Insane amounts of people will watch TLJ. That cant be stated enough, even if one thinks that it should have grossed 700M+.

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Almost every film bumped on Friday.. except TLJ.

 

Rank*	Title	Friday 12/29 (Estimates)	Saturday 12/30	Sunday 12/31	Monday 1/1
1	STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI Buena Vista 4,232	$19,064,000 -2.2% / $4,505 $483,762,228 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE Sony / Columbia 3,765	$17,750,000 +18.3% / $4,714 $137,005,967 / 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	PITCH PERFECT 3 Universal 3,468	$6,631,000 +7.5% / $1,912 $53,121,470 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Fox 3,316	$5,370,000 +13.3% / $1,619 $38,885,986 / 10	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	FERDINAND Fox 3,337	$4,500,000 +1.7% / $1,349 $46,660,105 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	COCO Buena Vista 2,104	$2,828,000 +6% / $1,344 $175,200,459 / 38	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD TriStar 2,074	$1,770,000 +27.3% / $853 $8,930,000 / 5	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	DARKEST HOUR Focus Features 943	$1,744,000 +26.4% / $1,849 $14,391,287 / 38	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	DOWNSIZING Paramount 2,664	$1,600,000 +14.9% / $601 $14,058,365 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	WONDER Lionsgate 1,193	$1,242,000 +37.2% / $1,041 $119,550,865 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	FATHER FIGURES Warner Bros. 2,902	$1,230,000 +17.7% / $424 $10,265,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
12	THE SHAPE OF WATER Fox Searchlight 756	$1,170,000 +17% / $1,548 $13,310,155 / 29	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	JUSTICE LEAGUE Warner Bros. 1,101	$420,000 +4.5% / $381 $224,782,455 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A

Brutal. There's really no excuse for it at this point, no reason why it couldn't have jumped 5% or something. The audience seems to slowly be abandoning it.

 

Anecdotal, but my dad texted me the other day and said something like "Dude, the new Star Wars is HORRIBLE!". A lot of people just don't like it.

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

I'm not entirely sure, it's holds really haven't been great.  I think it's likely a mixture of less repeat value, stronger competition (Jumanji is stronger than Sing and it has a larger crossover appeal into the Star Wars demo), the typical Star Wars sophmore drop, being darker (so less family appeal), some polarized fans (so even less repeat value), a little bit of franchise fatigue (not true fatigue, but there's definitely going to be some casual moviegoers who'd rather see something else.  Unlike Marvel/Comic Books, which has a wider range of visual styles, heroes and stories, Star Wars is always going to be Star Wars.), and a harder calendar could all add up to it.  I doubt it's solely because of any of those, but I think they all have a varying degree of contributing.

 

I'd reckon if you were able to get rid of a few of those factors, you'd probably see a mid-700m range movie instead of mid-600m range movie.  It's hard to point to any of them in particular as a sole cause though, because each one has a strong case to be made (arguably the calendar at this point is probably the weakest, but it's still a factor).  

 

Attack of the Clones and Empire Strikes Back both had sizeable drops from their predecessors (and given the fact that TFA was much bigger than TPM, there was much more room for TLJ to fall), so TLJ fits that story.

 

Jumanji is looking to be a possible 300m live action grosser, that's much more competition than RO or TFA had.  Granted, if there had been no Jumanji, that doesn't mean TLJ's gross would increase by 300m, but you'd be a fool to think it isn't having a sizeable effect on TLJ's holds (especially since when Jumanji has a weaker hold, TLJ seems to have a stronger one and visa versa).  It'll be interesting to see how this effects Solo in May, as it'll have Deadpool 2 the week after it (another movie that'll be a 300m grosser), followed by Ocean's 8, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World.  If Solo's really well received but has stubbier legs, you can definitely look back at a major cause of these holds being Jumanji (and the fact that there's a lot of openers taking up screens, even if they aren't raking in cash).

 

There are polarized fans, I'm still not so sure how much it's polarizing the general audience (as actual measures of GA reception have been positive), but fans are the ones who'll see a SW movie 5-7 times in theaters.  If they downgrade that to only 2-3 times, especially given how big the fanbase is, that definitely effects the movie's legs.  It's one of the reasons darker movies have a harder time with legs, they tend to be a bit more depressing and don't necessarily inspire you to turn out multiple times (obviously there are exceptions, but you tend to see this happen in franchises.  Just look at something like CW being the darkest in MCU's franchise, having the worst legs)

 

The darker tone definitely hurts family appeal at Christmas time, especially when there's an easy and lighter comedic alternative with Jumanji.

 

Then obviously TFA and RO's grosses are still ridiculously high.  There was always going to be some inflation in anticipation for the return of Star Wars, and TLJ is the third SW in three years, you can't maintain that insane level of hype forever.  So you can also see TLJ as the franchise slowly starting to come back down to Earth, yet still insanely high levels.  You still have to remember that 600m+ is a LOT of money.  In fact, SW will be the only franchise with 2 movies over 600m (it's actually the only one with 2 movies over 500m, soon to be 3), and that says quite a bit.  After the initial TFA zeitgeist, the ceiling is obviously going to be lower, we just didn't really know how low.  Despite being a 'polarizing' movie, TLJ is still going to pull an Avengers level total despite having much harder competition.

 

You have to stop and consider how many tickets 600m+ DOM really is, it's a lot, so it's hard to really gauge what's normal at that level.

 

The calendar is not worse, just different from TFA. It is still receiving a crapload of holiday boost and it will have the boost for a longer stretch than TFA or Rogue One. 

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Well said. A lot of things just worked against TLJ this time around, proving that Star Wars is not invincible or impervious to any of these factors. It's kind of a sad reality check for me, as I thought this would cruise by $700M and be a tier above JURASSIC WORLD and THE AVENGERS.

I also think we shouldn't underestimate totals like 700m or 800m just because TFA did bonkers numbers.  TFA was the return of Star Wars and the original cast, no movie should be able to come close to it so soon after its release.

 

It's also easy to underestimate how bonkers JW and Avengers were post-TFA.  They were both lightning in a bottle films as well.

 

220m is also a massive opening weekend, and given the frontloaded nature of the new Star Wars movies (just look at how massive the previews are compared to the overall OW totals.  They're very frontloaded films, even if the Holiday legs mask that a bit), it can be easy to mistake TLJ as doing poorly because it isn't matching the prior two's legs.  RO opened considerably lower, it's easier to have stronger legs with a smaller OW, and TFA should never be a comparison to make for a film behaving normally.  There isn't a real precedent on how TLJ should actually be behaving. 

 

I don't want to entirely dismiss the fact that WOM plays a role.  It surely does.  I do think TLJ likely had the potential to do mid-700m range if WOM had been better (at least among the fanbase, who go out and see movies many times) AND it didn't have such strong competition.  But I kind of think it wouldn't have gotten much past the mid-700m range even if it were a lighthearted romp loved by fans, similar to TFA and there wasn't strong direct competition releasing a few days after its opening.