Wednesday Numbers: TLJ $5.1 million

[AJG]

14 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Toy Sales for TLJ already well below TFA 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/star-wars-last-jedi-toy-shipments-down-sharply-force-awakens-1069479

 

Of course they are. 

 

You cant release sets of identical toys for Xmas 3 years in a row. 

[RandomCat]

10 hours ago, EmmaPeel said:

It has nothing to do with that. They announced the trilogy as part of the PR for TLJ, why would they shoot themselves in the foot by firing him while it's still in theaters? If the trilogy gets canceled, it'll happen quietly after the home video release.

This goes against everything we've seen from Lucas Film's previous actions though. They haven't quietly fired anyone, they even pushed aside Edwards during the PR campaign for RO. They have shown no signs of caring about it before, so why should they now? To fit your narrative?

[DAR]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Last Flag Flying was fantastic.

 

Phantom Thread, uhh, you guys will love it? I guess? I find any PTA film unwatchable. My GF and I turned this one off too. Second in a row. Inherent Vice was such a piece of shit half the audience walked out of many screenings. This boring pile of shit was just as bad. The guy cannot make a movie that’s not zzzzz boring. It’s just safe to say I won’t ever understand what’s so great about this guys crapfest movies. If you want to watch grass grow he’s amazing at it! He’s the best. If good storytelling and something happening in 2 hours is more your cup of tea I would avoid anything he makes. 

 

Heres my favorite comment from RT because it’s exactly right: “Public Service Announcement: Please, please Save Your Money. Free streaming worthy at best on a snowy Minnesota night in February. Like Seinfeld, it's a show about Nothing. Unlike Seinfeld, it is humorless, possesses no plot, little dramatic tension, inconsistent characters studies and zero entertainment value. It's not a movie, it's an exercise in protracted torture!”

Boogie Nights?

[George Parr]

34 minutes ago, RandomYojimbo said:

This goes against everything we've seen from Lucas Film's previous actions though. They haven't quietly fired anyone, they even pushed aside Edwards during the PR campaign for RO. They have shown no signs of caring about it before, so why should they now? To fit your narrative?

I don't remember Edwards being pushed asides in the PR campaign for Rogue One at all, on the contrary, they very much portrayed the situation as if he was still fully in charge of everything.

 

Lucasfilm has zero reason to fire Johnson. Other directors got fired or got some sort of help due to production-issues, there was none of that with Johnson. While TLJ is certainly quite divisive, it is also delivering huge numbers (if a bit below what some might have expected beforehand). With the new trilogy still being very far away, and Johnson so far not being someone who has caused them any kind of trouble, getting rid of him now makes no sense whatsoever.

 

It's not like Lucasfilm couldn't get him to deliver something a bit less divisive. Seeing how there will be no connection to the main saga, that is basically a given anyway. Lettings things die down a bit is much better than doing a rash decision now. It's not like they can't still cast him aside later on. After all, it was very much left open how much work he would do on the next trilogy. He would write and direct the first one, and develop the story as a whole, but that doesn't mean that they can't go "thanks to Johnson for his great work, now it's time for *insert random popular director* to give fresh input for the second movie of the trilogy", who then in turn can thank Johnson for the great setup, basically complimenting him aside.

 

Removing a director just based on a bunch of fans whining about a movie is really the last thing a studio should do. You don't throw all your plans over board just because there has been a bit of an outcry. Not only would that be a horrendous way of doing business, but it would also give in to all the naysayers, while throwing your own people and the audience that liked the last movie under the bus. It would be really odd to remove a director who has done exactly what you wanted, and not raised one issue during production, without giving him a chance to work out any kinks for the next one.

Edited January 5, 2018 by George Parr

[AJG]

10 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

[Mod edit: No bootleg material]

 

 

 

 

Jesus. This is exactly why I said Star Wars can't be pimped out like Marvel can. Just look at the toys. The Thor toys look different from the Spiderman toys, the spidey toys look different from the Guardians toys.

 

Star Wars shit looks exactly the same each and every time (the toys and the movies). I really don't understand why we need a new Star Wars film every year, they all look identical. The audience are gonna get tired quick imo.

[mikee11]

lol what makes you think it's bootleg, 99% real

 

[Mod edit: No bootleg material]

[baumer]

5 hours ago, Tree Billboards said:

Fun fact: there hasn't been a holiday release movie with as bad legs as The Last Jedi, since Exodus Gods and Kings.

 

There also hasn't been another 200 million dollar opener outside of the SW franchise either.

[baumer]

Already posted this once before...thought it bears repeating.  This was my analysis of Rogue One prior to its release.  You can basically just replace it with TLJ and you get the idea.  

 

The wom is split on this no doubt, but it also opened higher than any other film in the history of film with the exception of TFA.  I think it's possible that TFA was the one off, not the norm.  

 

 

 

 

SW has a loonie dedicated fan base.  I should know.  I'm part of it.  So this fan base is going to snap up tickets for the first weekend.  I've never had any doubts that this would have a huge opening weekend.  My initial prediction in the first post was 125 million.  Lets say for argument sake that this has a 150 million OW.  In your eyes, this means 450 is crushed and it will more than likely go over 500 and push for 600.  And that is a fair assumption, basing it on multipliers in December.  Here's the problem with that thought process.  There's been 16 movies to open to 140 million.  Of those 16 only one of course was in December, and that was TFA.  We'll get to that film in just a second.  

 

Of the other 15 films, the three best multipliers belong to 1) The Dark Knight with 3.37, 2) Jurassic World at 3.13 and Avengers at 3.0.  True none of these are December films but we have 16 films to work with where none of them that opened to more than 140 million hit better than a 3.37X.  That means for Rogue One to hit 450 million, the minimum it would have to open to if you go by history is 133.5 million.  And that's going by the high end of multipliers.  If you look at a couple of other films, you have a 2.68 for Catching Fire, 2.4 for AOE and 2.8 for TDKR.

 

So that brings us to TFA.  Yes, it got a 3.77 multiplier, by far the biggest and best multiplier of any film that opened to more than 140 million.  But we all know that TFA hit the zeitgeist.  That had Han Solo and Chewie and the Millenium Falcon and Luke and Leia and so much SW mythology and it was the antithesis to what the prequels were.  It gave us fans everything we wanted and it blew the doors off of everyone's expectations.  Rogue One has no chance of opening this big and IMHO it does not have a chance at that kind of multiplier.  It is a spin off and yes it connects the story but we have 15 other films that opened to massive numbers and none of them managed a 3.5 multiplier.  

 

The bigger a film opens, usually the smaller multiplier it has.  Again, the golden nugget dangling in front of all of you is TFA but can we all agree that it did everything right?  It was a perfect storm of anticipation, some apathy towards the prequels, re-uniting the main three from the originals, a cool villain, and so much more.  It was just perfect in every sense.  

 

So now we have the massive SW fan base snatching up tickets for the first weekend.  Is this is a shock?  No.  Rogue One is going to, even if it just opens to "just" 125 million crush the previous non SW December record by about 50%.  So it's going to be a huge opener.  But the bigger it opens, the lower the multiplier will be.  IMO, you can't expect a film that opens to 130-150 million to have massive legs.  A 3X would be huge.  Obviously it could have stronger legs, if you go by TFA, but I think that's such an anomaly that it's not applicable in this situation.  Rogue One imo, if the film is good and casual fans like it, will hit a 3.25-3.3 multiplier.  If it doesn't resonate with casual fans, it could definitely go below three.  And that's not an indictment of the film.  It's more of a reality based on how big opening weekend films perform.  Even if you were to give it the 3.37 that TDK got, it needs a 133 million opening weekend.  But like TFA, TDK hit the zeitgeist.  That film did everything right and people came to it over and over again.  

 

SW fan base is huge no doubt.  But there are still plenty of people like me out there who are massive massive SW fans who don't have a lot of interest in this one. So I personally think 3.37 is too high.

 

So if you take out the Twilight films and the last Potter film, and Spider-man 3, because people kind of hated that one, and then you take the average of the remaining films, you have a multiplier under 3.  So for Rogue One to have a legitimate shot at 450, I believe it has to open to 150 million at least.  

 

Now some of you might think I'm just blowing hot air to make a case for myself.  But I'm not.  I'm using real data.  I'm not making up these numbers.  Because December is such a mystery to us, because we only have one massive film to open in December, that of course being TFA, it's hard to gauge what will happen.  I have nothing to back this up, but if I had to guess right now, imo, if Rogue One were to open to 150 million, I think it could pull a Catching Fire like multiplier and end with 420.  

 

So that's my rebuttal to all of your sneering posts towards me.  Some of you have been really condescending.  Look, most of us here have been following the box office for a very very long time.  I'm not always right, in fact this year I've been mostly wrong.  But before this year, I've been pretty good.  There's a very real possibility that I could be wrong this time too, of course.  But I have put a lot of thought into this and backed it up with some pretty good research.  I believe I'm right.  If I'm not, I'll congratulate all of you and given my speech of defeat.

 

But until the last dollar is counted, try not to be so dismissive of one person's opinion.

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Last Flag Flying was fantastic.

 

Phantom Thread, uhh, you guys will love it? I guess? I find any PTA film unwatchable. My GF and I turned this one off too. Second in a row. Inherent Vice was such a piece of shit half the audience walked out of many screenings. This boring pile of shit was just as bad. The guy cannot make a movie that’s not zzzzz boring. It’s just safe to say I won’t ever understand what’s so great about this guys crapfest movies. If you want to watch grass grow he’s amazing at it! He’s the best. If good storytelling and something happening in 2 hours is more your cup of tea I would avoid anything he makes. 

 

Heres my favorite comment from RT because it’s exactly right: “Public Service Announcement: Please, please Save Your Money. Free streaming worthy at best on a snowy Minnesota night in February. Like Seinfeld, it's a show about Nothing. Unlike Seinfeld, it is humorless, possesses no plot, little dramatic tension, inconsistent characters studies and zero entertainment value. It's not a movie, it's an exercise in protracted torture!”

 

1 hour ago, DAR said:

Boogie Nights?

 

[RandomCat]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

I don't remember Edwards being pushed asides in the PR campaign for Rogue One at all, on the contrary, they very much portrayed the situation as if he was still fully in charge of everything.

I didn't say in, I said during. He was pushed aside DURING the PR campaign, not IN the PR campaign. If they were upset about how this movie performed (Why would they, it is a critical and financial success) They would do a similar thing they did with Edwards, announce a writer for Johnson's trilogy, and keep him as Director, it's a soft change, but isn't a shot in the foot.

 

The point is, there is no evidence that Lucasfilm is unhappy with what Johnson did.

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, RandomYojimbo said:

I didn't say in, I said during. He was pushed aside DURING the PR campaign, not IN the PR campaign. If they were upset about how this movie performed (Why would they, it is a critical and financial success) They would do a similar thing they did with Edwards, announce a writer for Johnson's trilogy, and keep him as Director, it's a soft change, but isn't a shot in the foot.

 

The point is, there is no evidence that Lucasfilm is unhappy with what Johnson did.

What do you mean by that? Please cite some examples.

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

What do you mean by that? Please cite some examples.

I'm not sure what you want elaborated on in my comment.

 

[Noctis]

Where the fuck are Thursday numbers?

[Adm56]

3 hours ago, Tree Billboards said:

Finally someone else who can't stand PTA movies. Any time I say that on the forum it's like I've just killed a child. 

I'm looking forward to last flag flying, it comes out here in a couple weeks I think.

Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood are awesome. The former is in my top five all time, but I'll admit TWBB took some time to grow on me (DDL is great in it even though his Gangs of New York role is still my favorite performance of his).  But I also thought Inherent Vice was terrible (although hats off to Katherine Waterson for being very fit). Magnolia has some issues (I don't care for the very beginning or very end) but is strong otherwise. Punch Drunk Love and The Master are a bit meh but PSH is great in the latter.

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Adm56 said:

Boogie Nights and There Will Be Blood are awesome. The former is in my top five all time, but I'll admit TWBB took some time to grow on me (DDL is great in it even though his Gangs of New York role is still my favorite performance of his).  But I also thought Inherent Vice was terrible (although hats off to Katherine Waterson for being very fit). Magnolia has some issues (I don't care for the very beginning or very end) but is strong otherwise. Punch Drunk Love and The Master are a bit meh but PSH is great in the latter.

Agree, Boogie nights and there will be blood, but i love there will be blood much more, while others of his film just doesn't look interesting...... 

Edited January 5, 2018 by titanic2187

[the beast]

Analysis On Jumanji Numbers:

Through 15 days, Jumanji is at $202.4m while being 6.2% ahead of Sing (2016) at the same point and if it were to keep at that pace, would end up at $287.1m although it should do much better by having the advantage of school holidays for up until Jan 8.

A Better comparison is Night at the Museum which also had school holidays until Jan 8 & had $147.2m in 15 days and ended with $250m. Jumanji at the same point had $202.4 which is a 37.5% increase which would make for a $343.8m total. Night at the Museum from day 16 till the end of its run added $102.8m and if Jumanji would add the same, would end up at $305.2m. I personally think it will have better holds than sing but worse holds than Night at the Museum and end up around $320m - $330m domestic and have a insane multiplier of around 8.8x - 9.1x off of a $36.4m weekend.

 

Internationally its doing great with up to $204.2m through Wednesday with China and a few other Markets yet to come. Its remaining markets could add $75m - $90m for around $280m - $295m. I have heard from the China Box office thread that this could probably make $150m+ in china which if it did happen, would make for around $430m - $445m total without the last few markets. Argentina could add around $4m, Brazil around $15m, New Zealand around $1.5m - $2m, Italy could add around $15m - $20m possibly and Greece and Norway could add $2m & $1m Respectively. Its Final Market is Japan in March of 2018. Look at Similar Movies, Night at the Museum did $30m+ while Sing did $43.7m+. I Think this will have a breakout there and do in the middle of those two and do around $37m for a International total of around $507m - $527m

 

Combining Domestic and International gives us a range between $830m -  $860m

 

Keep in mind, this could go the other way and some markets could dissapoint and domestically could have much worse holds and still have $650m - $700m total but this is how i see it doing at the moment

Edited January 5, 2018 by the beast

[Adm56]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Agree, Boogie nights and there will be blood, but i love there will be blood much more, while others of his film just doesn't look interesting...... 

I see the new film as being closer to The Master. I doubt it will set the world on fire box office or otherwise. 

 

Speaking of The Master I really like that one shot where the main character runs away from the migratory workers across the barren field. Beautiful. 

[WrathOfHan]

The Master

Boogie Nights

Punch Drunk Love

There Will Be Blood

 

 

 

Inherent Vice

 

Haven't seen Magnolia or Hard Eight (and obviously Phantom Thread). 

[George Parr]

52 minutes ago, RandomYojimbo said:

I didn't say in, I said during. He was pushed aside DURING the PR campaign, not IN the PR campaign. If they were upset about how this movie performed (Why would they, it is a critical and financial success) They would do a similar thing they did with Edwards, announce a writer for Johnson's trilogy, and keep him as Director, it's a soft change, but isn't a shot in the foot.

 

The point is, there is no evidence that Lucasfilm is unhappy with what Johnson did.

"In" in this case had the exact same meaning as "during". It didn't mean that the marketing campaign was pushing him aside. Edwards was around the entire time, he was always treated as the director, and he was also involved in the marketing of the movie itself, meaning he was not pushed aside at any point, neither in nor during the marketing campaign.

 

And yes, I agree that there is no evidence that Lucasfilm is unhappy with Johnson. I would even go a bit farther than that and say that there is quite the evidence that they are happy with what he did. After all, they gave him the new trilogy after they had seen the movie, meaning they were completely convinced of TLJ. A certain amount of people being unhappy wouldn't change the opinion of Lucasfilm on tje job Johnson did. I mean, they couldn't possibly criticise Johnson for something they themselves were so happy with that they wanted him to create a new trilogy.

[Lordmandeep]

I doubt Disney is overjoyed about Rian Johnson work in Episode 8 either ^^^ 

 

It made them a lot of money but it has fallen on the low end of box office expectations.

 

I doubt they expected the film to divide the Star Wars fanbase...especially when they are only on their third film.

 

I think they believed they made a film SW fans would love, but I think were taken a bit back by the backlash. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Lordmandeep