redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, NoLegMan said: I'm going 65% but I could end up being wrong. That would be a good result, about $2.75m and 9% ahead of Rogue One's daily result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: BOM reporter said at least 750 was safe and could go up to 831. I think he was nuts for applying TFA's multiplier to get that 831 number. It never really had a chance to match TFA legs. But a shitload of people here agreed with the BOM guy that 750 should happen. With the second Friday "early estimate" we had people going off the deep end predicting it to blow past Avatar's 760 total and push closer to 800. The early Friday number turned out to be way too high and it has never recovered from that like we hoped. Christmas Day/Boxing Day a lot of us thought at least $70m for those days combined (possibly $80m). It made $55m. And so forth... I remember Scott Mendelson saying 660-720. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Goddamn, The Greatest Showman's Blu-Ray is coming out on March 6, which is only 76 days after the theatrical release Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, NoLegMan said: well, those people are just bad at predicting. At the time it wasn't the craziest thought. The OW was more backloaded than TFA, and when that was all we had to go off it wasn't super unreasonable to expect that it could go as high as 800M. Obviously it hasn't unfolded like that, but hindsight is 20/20. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermia Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 ← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,918,854 -32% 3,765 $1,838 $202,350,752 15 2 (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $5,225,332 -34% 4,232 $1,235 $544,613,735 20 3 (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,627,249 -28% 3,316 $792 $60,721,504 15 4 (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $2,265,195 -33% 3,468 $653 $73,828,655 13 5 (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,725,595 -32% 3,337 $517 $61,268,677 20 6 (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,246,854 -28% 2,104 $593 $185,443,211 43 7 (8) Darkest Hour Focus Features $778,545 -17% 943 $826 $21,372,667 43 8 (7) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $703,807 -25% 2,074 $339 $15,987,175 10 9 (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $632,255 -31% 2,664 $237 $20,251,632 13 10 (12) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $558,932 -16% 756 $739 $18,085,313 34 11 (11) Father Figures Warner Bros. $467,119 -32% 2,902 $161 $15,188,848 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, weresweresweres said: Is jumanji 6.9 mln official? Looks like it. Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,918,854 -32% 3,765 $1,838 $202,350,752 15 2 (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $5,225,332 -34% 4,232 $1,235 $544,613,735 20 3 (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,627,249 -28% 3,316 $792 $60,721,504 15 4 (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $2,265,195 -33% 3,468 $653 $73,828,655 13 5 (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,725,595 -32% 3,337 $517 $61,268,677 20 6 (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,246,854 -28% 2,104 $593 $185,443,211 43 7 (8) Darkest Hour Focus Features $778,545 -17% 943 $826 $21,372,667 43 8 (7) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $703,807 -25% 2,074 $339 $15,987,175 10 9 (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $632,255 -31% 2,664 $237 $20,251,632 13 10 (12) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $558,932 -16% 756 $739 $18,085,313 34 11 (11) Father Figures Warner Bros. $467,119 -32% 2,902 $161 $15,188,848 13 12 (13) Molly’s Game STX Entertainment $357,125 -15% 271 $1,318 $6,913,420 10 13 (14) Lady Bird A24 $235,613 -5% 392 $601 $32,351,107 62 14 (15) Justice League Warner Bros. $178,230 -28% 1,215 $147 $226,339,162 48 15 (-) The Disaster Artist A24 $175,593 -15% 507 $346 $18,552,297 34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6.9? Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Hermia said: Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 ← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,918,854 -32% 3,765 $1,838 $202,350,752 15 2 (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $5,225,332 -34% 4,232 $1,235 $544,613,735 20 3 (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,627,249 -28% 3,316 $792 $60,721,504 15 4 (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $2,265,195 -33% 3,468 $653 $73,828,655 13 5 (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,725,595 -32% 3,337 $517 $61,268,677 20 6 (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,246,854 -28% 2,104 $593 $185,443,211 43 7 (8) Darkest Hour Focus Features $778,545 -17% 943 $826 $21,372,667 43 8 (7) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $703,807 -25% 2,074 $339 $15,987,175 10 9 (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $632,255 -31% 2,664 $237 $20,251,632 13 10 (12) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $558,932 -16% 756 $739 $18,085,313 34 11 (11) Father Figures Warner Bros. $467,119 -32% 2,902 $161 $15,188,848 13 Isn't that like the first ever after the Opening Weekend that the actuals came in above the estimates. 34% is a bit worse than the 30% I thought it would drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) I did think 700m was locked after OW. Clearly I was wrong, didn't see legs this mediocre. Looks like all the big stuff fell in a similar range yesterday. Edited January 4, 2018 by Jayhawk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, Jayhawk said: I did think 700m was locked after OW. Clearly I was wrong, didn't see legs this mediocre. Same. I had some really good pre OW predictions going that I abandoned...somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, NoLegMan said: I remember Scott Mendelson saying 660-720. He is generally pessimistic and it will come up short of his low end by $20m or more. He had to eat a lot of crow on TFA. He wrote an article a few months ago about multipliers that makes me think he really doesn't understand how this stuff works. Revenge of the Sith opened to an absurd $50m on a Thursday at a time when no other movie had grossed more than $44-45m on Friday/Saturday and Mendelson excludes that $50m daily gross from the multiplier discussion. The correct approach on a film like Sith is to take the average of its 4-day gross ($158m) and 3-day gross ($108m), which was $133m. Then do the multiplier calculation from there. Funnily enough it looks like TLJ will end up with similar legs at the end of the day. Sith at 381/133 is a 2.86 multiplier, which would be $630m gross for TLJ. Mendelson's article was all about wondering whether TLJ would be the most frontloaded Star Wars movie ever (blah blah blah). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 12/20/2017 at 8:08 AM, aabattery said: Call me greedy, but I want 800. Seems silly to already say that it's off the table. This is what an IDIOT looks like. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I saw that it could go below 700m before release but OW was just too strong (and not that frontloaded) to say it was going to go this low based on TFA and RO. Oh well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hermia said: Daily Domestic Chart for Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 ← Previous Chart Chart Index Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,918,854 -32% 3,765 $1,838 $202,350,752 15 2 (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $5,225,332 -34% 4,232 $1,235 $544,613,735 20 3 (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,627,249 -28% 3,316 $792 $60,721,504 15 4 (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $2,265,195 -33% 3,468 $653 $73,828,655 13 5 (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,725,595 -32% 3,337 $517 $61,268,677 20 6 (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,246,854 -28% 2,104 $593 $185,443,211 43 7 (8) Darkest Hour Focus Features $778,545 -17% 943 $826 $21,372,667 43 8 (7) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $703,807 -25% 2,074 $339 $15,987,175 10 9 (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $632,255 -31% 2,664 $237 $20,251,632 13 10 (12) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $558,932 -16% 756 $739 $18,085,313 34 11 (11) Father Figures Warner Bros. $467,119 -32% 2,902 $161 $15,188,848 13 using same drops as Night at the Museum for Jumanji get it to $44.6m+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxAggressor Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/949029507280683008 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle passed the $200M domestic mark on Wednesday after grossing $6.92M for the day. 15-Day total stands at $202.35M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Any guesses for how much Jumanji will be at worldwide after this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m3racer123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Jayhawk said: I did think 700m was locked after OW. Clearly I was wrong, didn't see legs this mediocre. Looks like all the big stuff fell in a similar range yesterday. It was a reasonable assumption, since even Rogue One legs would have got it to 755m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: Critic 1: This one wasn't great, I'm nervous.. but I think I'm going to give this one a bad review. What do you think? Critic 2 was looking at their phone Critic 2: Sorry I didn't catch that, hey did you see that Fox and Disney are merging. Disney will have 40% market share! I'm sorry what were you saying? Critic 1: erm.. nothing important at least we don't have to worry about critics backlashing on them avatar sequels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, m3racer123 said: It was a reasonable assumption, since even Rogue One legs would have got it to 755m. Rogue One legs not easy for any movie that opens above $200m, regardless of holiday boost. That's also a decline of only 9.26% from TFA's multiplier. Not easy with opening numbers this big. TDKR multiplier dropped 17.5% from TDK multiplier. Ultron multiplier dropped 20% from Avengers multiplier. TLJ probably will end up around 23-24% drop from TFA multiplier, but TFA was pretty much a once in a lifetime franchise movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: at least we don't have to worry about critics backlashing on them avatar sequels. yeah they're being made by the same guy who made T2 and Aliens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
