Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[StevenG]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

It has the best friday and the weekend hold amongst the top 10. Everything fell hard this week and it was expected after Easter weekend/spring break holiday ended. I think BP had a better than expected drop as I and many others were expecting a drop in the 40’s. 

 

40% weekly drops from here on out gets BP to 685 at least. Whereas 30% drops will get it to 692. So if it wants to get to 700 its gonna need a boost from IW, plus a re-expansion in may and during Memorial day weekend. 

 

At this point I think a finish in the 685-690 region is likely

Yeah.

What a damn flop BP has been.

  

[Krissykins]

The Rock is a draw, but he’s definitely not a consistent draw. 

 

Outside of franchises, it’s very hit and miss. 

[a2k]

May is looking weak apart from AIW holds and Rampage and RPO both have a chance of recovering well. I wouldn't rule out 85-90 dom for Rampage just yet as reception seems positive and 32-33 weekend is plausible. 32*2.65=85

 

If it does 80 dom + 140 Ch + 155 OS-Ch = 375 ww, the theatrical revenue will be approx

80*0.55 + 140*0.25 + 155*0.33 = 44 + 35 + 51.15 = 130.15

[The Futurist]

Dwayne Flopson.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

Dwayne Flopson.

The Flop

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

It lost it's premium screens to Rampage so that's part of the reason.

 

Also, I feel the Sat bump will be stronger than last weekend. GIJ2 had a Sat bump of 40% on the 1st Sat and 70% on the 2nd Sat. Last Sat RPO jumped 63% and I hope it can do 80-90% this Sat

 

2.8 + 5.3 (+90%) + 3.4 (-36%) = 11.5 (-53%)

I get the feeling WB knew RPO would have to take the hit with Rampage moving up.

7 hours ago, aabattery said:

WB is doing fine. Don't really get the doom and gloom some people always seem to have about them.

 

A related fun fact I just learned; if they can get over 1.5B (dom) this year they will have had ten consecutive years over that mark, which I believe is a first for any studio.

WB have their issues and flops but studio doesn’t?

Edited April 14, 2018 by Jonwo

[Jonwo]

 

20 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

RPO was never meant to necessarily be a franchise starter though. Chill. WB is doing fine. 

The goal posts really have been moved for RPO, first it was it would bomb and fail

to crack $100m, now people are crowing it won’t be a franchise which is still could be since the WW are very good. 

 

I don’t get the whole WB is doing badly narrative when they’re really not. TR was a disappointment but it’s a co-production with MGM so the risk is spread and it’ll break even, 1517 to Paris was fairly cheap to make and WB can take the hit on it because Eastwood made them loads of money from American Sniper and Sully, Game Night will break even or make a small profit, RPO will most certainly be profitable as will Rampage thanks to OS

Edited April 14, 2018 by Jonwo

[a2k]

32 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I get the feeling WB knew RPO would have to take the hit with Rampage moving up.

If it can do 11.5 this weekend, next weekend it can stabilize with a 35% drop and do ~7.5m. Probably 60% drop when AIW opens for 3m.

So 103.5 + 11.5 3rd weekend + 3.5 Mon-Thu + 7.5 4th weekend + 2 Mon-Thu + 3 5th weekend (-60%; AIW) = 131 ... the 3x the 5th weekend more will give it 140 dom.

 

Edited April 14, 2018 by a2knet

[a2k]

31 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

The goal posts really have been moved for RPO, first it was it would bomb and fail

to crack $100m, now people are crowing it won’t be a franchise which is still could be since the WW are very good. 

 

I don’t get the whole WB is doing badly narrative when they’re really not. TR was a disappointment but it’s a co-production with MGM so the risk is spread and it’ll break even, 1519 to Paris was fairly cheap to make and WB can take the hit on it because Eastwood made them loads of money from American Sniper and Sully, Game Night will break even or make a small profit, RPO will most certainly be profitable as will Rampage thanks to OS

bigly profits imo. should do very well rental and home media too.

[Valonqar]

That's a pretty great number for AQP, no?

[filmscholar]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

The Rock is a draw, but he’s definitely not a consistent draw. 

 

Outside of franchises, it’s very hit and miss. 

 

This is fair but he's much more of a Draw than most of the so called "Draws" because he can open a movie and sell it.   This was a tougher sell.  70's/80's babies grew up on "Rampage" on arcade and Nintendo but it wasn't a title we were really clamoring for so I'm not expecting any type of Nostalgia bump for this.   (RPO is filling that Nostalgia for us right now).  Also let's be honest, 16 years ago, not many people expected The Rock to have a movie career like this.  He really is a leading man now.  With that said, this is his 2nd Video Game movie (Doom which pretty much bombed back in 05 was the 1st) 

Edited April 14, 2018 by filmscholar

[picores]

A Quiet Place O/U Get Out? Should be close. 

[StevenG]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

The Rock is a draw, but he’s definitely not a consistent draw. 

 

Outside of franchises, it’s very hit and miss. 

So pretty much like every other box office draw. Nobody is a consistent draw across all genres or regardless of the size/scope of the film's overall marketing.

[titanic2187]

Disappointing legs from RPO, from buzz wise, quality wise or competition wise , RPO isn't supposed to be a nearly 60% dropper. 

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I mentioned it mostly as joke tbh but I agree with ur points. WB must be delighted with the performance of their movies in China of late but the domestic performance must be disappointing. After all it is far better to make 100m dom than it is to make 200m in China

Not if you spent $50m on US marketing.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

The Rock is a draw, but he’s definitely not a consistent draw. 

 

Outside of franchises, it’s very hit and miss. 

His only real misses recently have been the ones that were most susceptible to flopping in the first place (an adaptation of a mythological character that has been done many times before, a reboot of a TV show that nobody actually liked even when it was popular, and now a movie based on an arcade game). With the man cranking out so many movies, it's not surprising he isn't infallible. 

[IronJimbo]

27 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Disappointing legs from RPO, from buzz wise, quality wise or competition wise , RPO isn't supposed to be a nearly 60% dropper. 

I do feel as though RPO was somewhat lacking but I definitely agree it's deserving of making much more money.

[harrycaul]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

His only real misses recently have been the ones that were most susceptible to flopping in the first place (an adaptation of a mythological character that has been done many times before, a reboot of a TV show that nobody actually liked even when it was popular, and now a movie based on an arcade game). With the man cranking out so many movies, it's not surprising he isn't infallible. 

The point of being a "draw" is that you can save movies that are otherwise destined to flop. If you can't, are you really a draw?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

The point of being a "draw" is that you can save movies that are otherwise destined to flop. If you can't, are you really a draw?

Well, this isn't the 90s.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, harrycaul said:

The point of being a "draw" is that you can save movies that are otherwise destined to flop. If you can't, are you really a draw?

How much would Rampage have made with no Dwayne?  Comparisons of similar movies would make you think sub-20m OW.

 

Theres really no such thing though as somebody who’s such a draw that they can turn a movie into a hit all by themselves.

 

I was expecting a breakout for Rampage but I think RPO and AQP saturated some of that blockbuster demand, with IW being right around the corner also taking away some of the attention.

 

I think had it been able to have more distance from the early April hits and stay two weeks from IW it could have opened a bit higher.  Probably low to mid thirties.

 

Odd though how the movie we all thought would be the big hit between BP and IW wasn’t one at all.  I’ll admit, prior to the poor tracking the week before Rampage’s release, I was thinking a 45mish OW.