INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I really do think this could leg out better than any of us anticipated. I don't think there's a precedent for a movie going up this much in tracking on opening weekend and then crumbling. 

i think we have 4 similar movies (mcu three-quels and the only other ta sequel)

thor3 2.57x (nov)

aou 2.40x (may)

im3 2.34x (may)

ca3 2.29x (april)

 

of these 4 films thor3 had the best legs, lowest ow by far, and different release date. it also had very good reception like aiw. so i think ~2.55x is the max legs aiw can have, and that gives 663 dom with 260 ow. but still feel realistically 2.4x is the goal. gives 624 with 260 ow, so basically o/u TA1.

Edited April 30, 2018 by a2k

[Mekanos]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

i think we have 4 similar movies (mcu three-quels and the only other ta sequel)

thor3 2.57x (nov)

aou 2.40x (may)

im3 2.34x (may)

ca3 2.29x (april)

 

of these 4 films thor3 had the best legs, lowest ow by far, and different release date. it also had very good reception like aiw. so i think ~2.55x is the max legs aiw can have, and that gives 663 dom with 260 ow. but still feel realistically 2.4x is the goal. gives 624 with 260 ow, so basically o/u TA1.

I agree with you in principle but none of these movies were increasing ~30 million in their tracking during their opening weekend while also taking the crown for highest weekend ever. This is a unique phenomenon. 

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

i think we have 4 similar movies (mcu three-quels and the only other ta sequel)

thor3 2.57x (nov)

aou 2.40x (may)

im3 2.34x (may)

ca3 2.29x (april)

 

of these 4 films thor3 had the best legs, lowest ow by far, and different release date. it also had very good reception like aiw. so i think ~2.55x is the max legs aiw can have, and that gives 663 dom with 260 ow. but still feel realistically 2.4x is the goal. gives 624 with 260 ow, so basically o/u TA1.

 

Honestly, before we have the 2nd and 3rd weekend drops, i think its kinda impossible to have good comps for this one. Infinity War is its own beast. Thors legs could have been even better if it wasnt for JL, so its multi is actually a bit depressed. IW might just go by Iron Man 3's DOM total by next Friday, AOU will be toast only days later. Civil War and AOU both didnt have the best WOM as well, IW's reception is more in line with the fist Avengers. With all that in mind, i think we cant say now how good its multiplier will be. But i damn sure hope this movie reaches that 700M DOM.

[Cap]

12 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I really do think this could leg out better than any of us anticipated. I don't think there's a precedent for a movie going up this much in tracking on opening weekend and then crumbling. 

I can think of a movie that opened HUGE and went off a cliff week 2. I just can’t say it. 

 

I am inclined to agree. I think there is a lot for hardcore fans to unpack. Definitely worth a second view.  As for the big thing that’s concerning people, I don’t think that will skew the WOM negative. 

 

I have sat through it four times. The Reaction is basically stunned silence, crazy talking the minute the credits hit. This is from both a hardcore Thursday audience and my causal Sunday audience.

 

I took my mom on Saturday and she had a negative reaction to The a Thing. On a Sunday she was in the supermarket recommending it to someone she ran into as “You Have To See This To Believe It”.

[Krissykins]

Omg, disney lowballed their sunday estimate, obviously too much money to count! 

[FlashMaster659]

Fandango 11 pm same point in time

 

2018-04-29 23:00:00	2846	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-29 23:00:00	501	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-29 23:00:00	292	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-29 23:00:00	157	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-29 23:00:00	91	Deadpool 2
2018-04-29 23:00:00	56	A Quiet Place

2018-04-28 23:00:00	2837	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-28 23:00:00	615	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-28 23:00:00	185	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-28 23:00:00	152	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-28 23:00:00	145	A Quiet Place
2018-04-28 23:00:00	95	I Feel Pretty

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Fandango 11 pm same point in time

 

2018-04-29 23:00:00	2846	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-29 23:00:00	501	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-29 23:00:00	292	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-29 23:00:00	157	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-29 23:00:00	91	Deadpool 2
2018-04-29 23:00:00	56	A Quiet Place

2018-04-28 23:00:00	2837	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-28 23:00:00	615	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-28 23:00:00	185	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-28 23:00:00	152	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-28 23:00:00	145	A Quiet Place
2018-04-28 23:00:00	95	I Feel Pretty

Fandango 12 am same point in time

 

2018-04-30 00:00:00	1758	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-30 00:00:00	308	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-30 00:00:00	155	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-30 00:00:00	103	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-30 00:00:00	78	Deadpool 2
2018-04-30 00:00:00	38	A Quiet Place

2018-04-29 00:00:00	2848	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-29 00:00:00	582	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-29 00:00:00	227	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-29 00:00:00	186	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-29 00:00:00	88	A Quiet Place
2018-04-29 00:00:00	54	Rampage (2018)

[KP1025]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

On a Sunday she was in the supermarket recommending it to someone she ran into as “You Have To See This To Believe It”.

This has been the prevailing response around me. I think IW is a conversation starter unlike any other in the MCU, which bodes well for its legs.

[Cooper Legion]

The best two comps we have are The Avengers and Black Panther, in that order. At least until some cold hard numbers come in to suggest otherwise, there is every indication that this belongs with the other two true event MCU movies and not the previous 16 non-event MCU movies.        

 

That said, it is indeed a sequel, and that also provides important information. If it does turn out to be the first sequel phenomenon, it will likely have legs between those of the non-phenomenon sequels (2.3-2.6ish) and the non-sequel phenomenons (3-3.4). Something like 2.75, if I had to pick a single number this early.

[BK007]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Disney is going to throw in another couple $150m range openers in the next 6 weeks as well and a potential $80m+ opener a few weeks after that.  

The Incredibles opening to $150m? I'll have to see it to believe it. 

 

Pixar sequels are always talked up and don't deliver (BO-wise). 

 

Highly doubt Solo gets that either, unless it's the 4-day or Memorial Day boost. 

[BK007]

3 hours ago, Jay Beezy said:

I’m curious as to what Matthew Vaughn could have done with the X-Men franchise had he stayed on past First Class.

Would've done a lot better.

 

I mean, I think I enjoyed DoFP, but it was just a normal blockbuster and did nothing to advance any groundwork left by FC. 

 

Apocalypse is utter trash. Worse than the maligned The Last Stand funnily enough.

 

Heck, when I rewatched the X-Men series a few years back, X3 was much better than XM and X2. 

 

 

[Krissykins]

22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The best two comps we have are The Avengers and Black Panther, in that order. At least until some cold hard numbers come in to suggest otherwise, there is every indication that this belongs with the other two true event MCU movies and not the previous 16 non-event MCU movies.        

 

That said, it is indeed a sequel, and that also provides important information. If it does turn out to be the first sequel phenomenon, it will likely have legs between those of the non-phenomenon sequels (2.3-2.6ish) and the non-sequel phenomenons (3-3.4). Something like 2.75, if I had to pick a single number this early.

How was Age of Ultron “not an event” when it had one of the top 10 openings and made more than Black Panther worldwide? 

[townzy89]

Everyone debating if AIW can make it to 700m. Watch it smash 800m

[IronJimbo]

Although it would be a shame if Avatar's dom goes I care more about Titanic's 2.17b worldwide.

 

It's pretty frustrating seeing everyone taking turns to take a shot at the king while he just sits back waiting.

Edited April 30, 2018 by IronJimbo

[LaughingEvans]

18 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Heck, when I rewatched the X-Men series a few years back, X3 was much better than XM and X2. 

 

I have legitimate suspicions that Brett Ratner is on this board.

[eddyxx]

Quote

Omg, disney lowballed their sunday estimate, obviously too much money to count! 

Age of Ultron is the only time I can think of Disney not lowballing their movies. I remember them saying AOU was going to have a 200m ow on that fateful friday.

Edited April 30, 2018 by eddyxx

[Mekanos]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

How was Age of Ultron “not an event” when it had one of the top 10 openings and made more than Black Panther worldwide? 

Mediocre legs. Black Panther steamrolled it domestically, that's the key talking point here. 

Edited April 30, 2018 by Mekanos

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

Age of Ultron is the only time I can think of Disney not lowballing their movies. I remember them saying AOU was going to have a 200m ow on that fateful friday.

They overestimated Civil War too. Disney thought it was going over the $180M mark but actuals came under 

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

How was Age of Ultron “not an event” when it had one of the top 10 openings and made more than Black Panther worldwide? 

Speaking strictly domestically there. Ultron opened solidly based on hype from Avengers 1, but had mixed-good reception and in the end just didn’t capture the interest of the broader US culture. It was a box office event, but not an event for America at large, and I think the multi and total demonstrate that pretty clearly. People might have different ideas about exactly why that was. In my opinion it was just too similar to Avengers 1 — same 6 main hero cast, adding 0 new sub-franchises, simply made it a reaction of “oh, this again” rather than “wow, I’ve never seen this before.”     

 

Some people thought the same might be true of Infinity War. “Oh, it’s this formula again, but for the third time now.” However, I think what we’re seeing is that by introducing 5 solo franchises never before in an avengers film (Ant-Man, Guardians, Black Panther, Spider-Man, Doctor Strange) and [redacted details about plot], IW successfully feels (to the GA) like a sufficiently new thing rather than just the third iteration of an old concept.    

 

Anyway, like I said, it’s early still. Until next Sunday I won’t be too confident in this thesis, since I’ve seen more convincing looking things that later turn out to have been held together by pure cherry-picking and confirmation bias

Edited April 30, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Although it would be a shame if Avatar's dom goes I care more about Titanic's 2.17b worldwide.

 

It's pretty frustrating seeing everyone taking turns to take a shot at the king while he just sits back waiting.

heck they even get another turn next year with IW2... I always had a dream of the top spots being A5,A4,A3,A2,Avatar but it seems the tent-poles are catching up to Avatar so I'll have to settle for the 4 sequels being the top 4.

 

To be honest the higher films like this go the more potential Avatar 2 has.

 

In other words I don't think Avatar's worldwide can hold from none Avatar film until 2025

Edited April 30, 2018 by IronJimbo