BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Quake]

Come on thats incredible Numbers for JW2 people said 100-120 then 130 now its 145 million. No one was expecting zeitgeist numbers 

[Brainbug]

The rise wont stop there! 150M+ weekend looking really good at the moment @MovieMan89

 

Though my 500M club for I2 and JW is in massive jeopardy now. I2 is locked to do it, but Fallen Kingdom would need something like a 150M OW and then a 3,32 multi, and i dont think its legs will be as good as JW's. So it needs something like a 160M OW and 3,13 legs or ofc an even slightly bigger OW than that for 500M. Thats all in theory, ofc, the much more likely outcome for the DOM total is now 400M+.

[Zakiyyah6]

9 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah, but if the film's WOM is more like Europe than Asia I could see it dropping off. Avengers had a 3x multi but AOU had a 2.4x.

Please stop comparing the Jurassic movies to comic book movies. If it performed like comic book movies then it wouldn't be headed for 145mil opening. It would have been more front loaded.

[lab276]

Perhaps I'm just being crazy, but maybe they just waited too long. 2015 feels like a completely different time to me compared to now. Much more different than 2012 was from 2015 somehow. Or maybe JW left not much of an impression on me?

Edited June 23, 2018 by lab276

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Please stop comparing the Jurassic movies to comic book movies. If it performed like comic book movies then it wouldn't be headed for 145mil opening. It would have been more front loaded.

I made the comparison because both TA and JW were 200M+ openers with 600M+ finishes and similar legs. I think 2.5x for JW2 is doable but 2.4x wouldn't shock me.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Mekanos

[YLF]

This forum is interesting. After Incredibles 2 first weekend people were claiming it would make well over 700M and same with infinity war without seeing second weekend drops. For infinity war people were going as high as 800M LMFAO 🤣😂 

 

Get over it folks Black Panther is going to be #1 dom for the year no matter your wishful thinking. 700M dom is still a rarity.

[stephanos13]

Great opening weekend for JW2!!!

[vc2002]

3 minutes ago, YLF said:

This forum is interesting. After Incredibles 2 first weekend people were claiming it would make well over 700M and same with infinity war without seeing second weekend drops. For infinity war people were going as high as 800M LMFAO 🤣😂 

 

Get over it folks Black Panther is going to be #1 dom for the year no matter your wishful thinking. 700M dom is still a rarity.

 

Over-reaction is a common game that every internet forum users play.

[Mekanos]

20 minutes ago, YLF said:

This forum is interesting. After Incredibles 2 first weekend people were claiming it would make well over 700M and same with infinity war without seeing second weekend drops. For infinity war people were going as high as 800M LMFAO 🤣😂 

 

Get over it folks Black Panther is going to be #1 dom for the year no matter your wishful thinking. 700M dom is still a rarity.

700M or more for IW was not necessarily wishful thinking, it exploded way past tracking and had amazing Saturday/Sunday holds, even if it was a bit premature/movieman-ish. I agree though that the numbers thrown out for Incredibles 2 were pretty ridiculous, people were letting the A+ Cinemascore go to their head.

 

I don't get the "get over it" part. Very few people were actually rooting against Black Panther. It's not a slight against that movie.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Mekanos

[a2k]

After AIW did a record breaking 258 ow, was thinking 2.25-2.35x for 580-610. And still makes sense to think that after that huge upfront demand and history of the sequels that opened huge in MCU, it would behave like IM3, AOU, CA3 (2.35x, 2.40x, 2.29x) or a tad worse!

[Mekanos]

IW performed on the high end of what I expected for multipliers, 2.3-2.6x. I just didn't think OW would go over 230M. The fact that it overperformed on opening weekend and still had very healthy legs for a threequel teamup movie proves just how insane WOM/repeat viewings were.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Mekanos

[bladels]

I don't get why people laugh at others' predictions they're only slightly off. They're called predictions for a reason.

$700M vs $600M+ is not that far off.

It's not like those people who are LOL-ing haven't been wrong before.

[a2k]

58.4 OD is 3.81x the previews. JW1 did 4.43x.

Needs 9.81x to hit 150 OW. JW1 was 11.29x.

[Joyous Legion]

22 minutes ago, YLF said:

This forum is interesting. After Incredibles 2 first weekend people were claiming it would make well over 700M and same with infinity war without seeing second weekend drops. For infinity war people were going as high as 800M LMFAO 🤣😂 

 

Get over it folks Black Panther is going to be #1 dom for the year no matter your wishful thinking. 700M dom is still a rarity.

Nobody was saying that 700 was locked for IW or I2, merely that it was on the table. And it was. So not really sure I understand your point.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Moviefanatic]

All things considered that is a decent number for JW2. All the shade and very low OW predictions so many people were hoping for were wishful thinking. Will come in at the high end of tracking. 

 

I2 had bigger jump than i expected so that’s really really nice to see. Thought it would at least hit 90 million tho. Looks like JW2 and I2 are hurting each other. Black Panther or AIW won’t be challenged by I2 but it can still make a run at 600 million maybe.

 

FANTASTIC hold for DP2. Really glad this movie has been able to stabilize after its 2nd weekend drop. Hoping it can reach 325-330 million. Excellent run

 

Solo....should drop less than 50 percent so that’s nice.

 

AIW took a big hit but that was expected. Should crawl to 680-682 million. 

[Firepower]

49 minutes ago, a2k said:

Maybe TLJ 'messing up the legacy' got it extra ire?

FK messing up the legacy too, people just don't care here because the frachise is average Joe driven and JP fan base is completely different from SW, mostly, and will eat absolutely anything, even movie this bad.

[MCKillswitch123]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

After AIW did a record breaking 258 ow, was thinking 2.25-2.35x for 580-610. And still makes sense to think that after that huge upfront demand and history of the sequels that opened huge in MCU, it would behave like IM3, AOU, CA3 (2.35x, 2.40x, 2.29x) or a tad worse!

It is pretty baffling, in all honesty (and this is coming from an MCU fan myself). It's really not a movie that should be having healthy legs ESPECIALLY after a gigantic nearly-260M OW, and yet, it's gonna have the best multiplier out of any MCU sequel except The Winter Soldier and possibly GOTG 2. Despite the brutal way the movie comes to an end, despite the insane fan rush on OW alone, despite the competition..... it's a good performance. That's why, when @Thrylos 7 says that he doesn't like to sugarcoat IW's run, it's transparent that he doesn't really understand how box office works, because his "expectations" weren't realistic, they were just straight up delusional (seriously, you expected a Black Panther-style drop on 2nd weekend for a movie that had no business going sub-50%? Its 1st week performance was just spillover from OW). That being said, 700 was more than realistic, and it probably would've done it if DP2 hadn't opened smack-dab in the middle of its run. Let's see what happens with the 4th one, since it won't have that kind of competition.

 

As far as JW2, keeps increasing in estimates, which is good. The tune cannot change about it being a disappointment compared to JW1, but as far as the expectations going into it, it's hitting the high end or higher of them, so good on it.

[Istealnames]

It's a tragedy that this morally insensitive and puerile garbage is getting the numbers it is. 

[YLF]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Nobody was saying that 700 was locked for IW or I2, merely that it was on the table. And it was. So not really sure I understand your point.

People legit said it was locked. Im not going to go back to prove a point though. For infinity war specifically there were a few 800M predictions that were not from movie man.

Edited June 23, 2018 by YLF

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Firepower said:

FK messing up the legacy too, people just don't care here because the frachise is average Joe driven and JP fan base is completely different from SW, mostly, and will eat absolutely anything, even movie this bad.

 

8 minutes ago, Istealnames said:

It's a tragedy that this morally insensitive and puerile garbage is getting the numbers it is. 

 

Keep beeing so incredibly bitter and butthurt over an awesome movie, it makes its success even more satiesfying