BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[a2k]

Am glad JW2's Sat didn't come down. It really did show a ~15% bump from true Friday (49.70/43.27).

JW1's Mon-Thu holds were -55.7%, -4%, -18.3%, -10.4%

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

LOLLERSKATES. 150 ‘not very impressive’ when this clown predicted a sub 100 mil ow. 

Literally it ranks 20th on the OW charts. For some movies that would be impressive. For a sequel to a #1 opener it is absolutely not that impressive.

[TwoMisfits]

JW:FK - I think we all agreed likes 95 pages ago that something close to $150M (and $148M qualifies) would be a good opening...so, let's keep with the agreement, it's definitely a good opening.  It also definitely puts $400M in play (although I want to wait and see how the next 2-3 weeks play out before saying "it's certain" or "it's never happening" - I've seen some divisive reactions, just from you posters to my "should I see it" question, and you all seem to feel pretty strongly, so if you are indicative, well, maybe it's gonna not be too easy to get a decent multiplier:)...

 

But, how much more can you ask at the DOM BO from a not-greatly-reviewed fifth-quel about dinosaurs opening only one week after a Pixar juggernaut than what JW:FK delivered?

 

  

[sfran43]

WB literally gave us an early morning revised weekend estimates for O8 and Tag, and then apparently went on a sabbatical before updating with actual numbers!

[manny1234]

42 minutes ago, Nova said:

Not gonna lie but after DP2 IM on its OW and it’s second weekend drop, if you had told me it could reach a 2.5x I’d have laughed in your face and yet it got some good late legs so I think it’s important not to write off either I2 and JW2 ability to get good multipliers especially with the only big competition coming up is Ant-man 

Do you think it is possible when Ant-Man 2 comes up it will face another 50 percent or more drop?

[Talkie]

1 hour ago, Moviefanatic said:

That was because Disney made a fool of themselves by repeatedly saying things like 100 million OD is within reach and actuals constantly coming in lower than estimates. 

 

They learned from that though. Now they purposely underestimate there blockbusters 

 

Did Marvel say AOU could make $100M on its first day or did that come from people here? This place is infamous for making hyperinflated predictions and then getting hysterical when they don't pan out.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, manny1234 said:

Do you think it is possible when Ant-Man 2 comes up it will face another 50 percent or more drop?

Which movie are we talking about? Lol 

[manny1234]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Which movie are we talking about? Lol 

Deadpool 2 since they are both CBM.

[Wonder Midget]

Just saw FK. That was the best dumb fun I've had at the movies in awhile. 

 

 

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, Talkie said:

 

Did Marvel say AOU could make $100M on its first day or did that come from people here? This place is infamous for making hyperinflated predictions and then getting hysterical when they don't pan out.

Rth said it. It was one of the most glorious moments of this forum when it failed to top DH2. 

 

 

[a2k]

One way I see 400 for JW2 :

 

148 OW

17.0 (-57%) + 16.5 (-3%) + 12.5 (-24%) + 11 (-12%) = 57 Mon-Thu

17.2 (+56%) + 22.7 (+32%) +17.1 (-25%) = 57 2nd Weekend (-61.5%)*

Gives 148+57+57 = 262 10-day

 

Adding 2.35x** the 2nd weekend to it's cume gives

262 + 57*2.35 = 396

 

*JW1 fell 49% but it's Father's Day Sunday on 2nd weekend fell 2%, else would have been low-50% drop. Plus this is a sequel.

**JW1 also added 2.35x the 2nd weekend which makes the same tough for JW2, but like mentioned above JW1's 2nd weekend was inflated by Father's Day.

 

That's only 396 you say...not 400. Well, take a fudging guess.
 

Edited June 25, 2018 by a2k

[Nova]

12 minutes ago, manny1234 said:

Deadpool 2 since they are both CBM.

Hmm not sure. It held much better than I thought it would against JW2 despite losing a bunch of theaters so I don’t want to say that a 50%+ drop will def happen but if it does I wouldn’t be surprised but I’m hoping for a 45% drop if not better but it’ll all depend on it’s theater count imo 

[dxmatrixdt]

just saw the actuals.  all I can say is horrible horrible number for JW.  2m below estimates, Monday will probably dip way below 20m, time to redo predictions.

[dxmatrixdt]

I put 7.25 in the derby for TAG and the actual was 8.25.  It seems like that was a very good hold for TAG.  random R-rated action comedy in the face of Jurassic World and making 8.25m after ~14.75 OW.

 

as for JW, I feel it hit some of the 90s Star Wars nerds that I imagine.  That is, people who work all day and get off work and go see the new movie alone because it fits right into their schedule because the advancement of the plot is just as important as anything else in their daily lives.  It is like they have a busy life, they forget it is Jurassic Word 2's opening day but once they hear about it, they get out their phone and set a time and then see it after work and wait years to see another one and don't take further plot advancements for other films as serious other than Jurassic Park and Star Wars.

[MovieMan89]

Lol, just noticed WB is following in Disney's noble footsteps with WiT by beginning a 100 fudge campaign for Rampage. Geez, these studios this year are being flat out shameless with the chocolate. 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, just noticed WB is following in Disney's noble footsteps with WiT by beginning a 100 fudge campaign for Rampage. Geez, these studios this year are being flat out shameless with the chocolate. 

FFS for the umpteenth time - THIS IS NOT NEW, this is regular business for studios to hit monetary incentives with $100m & $200m for TV and streaming sales.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

FFS for the umpteenth time - THIS IS NOT NEW, this is regular business for studios to hit monetary incentives with $100m & $200m for TV and streaming sales.

Yeah, and in the past studios will fudge if a movie gets within like 1m on its own, with a few notable exceptions. But this year they've started fudging like 3-4m away from milestones. It's coming off pretty desperate. I guess 95 is the new 100 because if a movie hits that, apparently studios aren't going to leave it alone anymore. 

[aabattery]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, and in the past studios will fudge if a movie gets within like 1m on its own, with a few notable exceptions. But this year they've started fudging like 3-4m away from milestones. It's coming off pretty desperate. I guess 95 is the new 100 because if a movie hits that, apparently studios aren't going to leave it alone anymore. 

 

God forbid these billion dollar corporations come off as desperate to a couple of box office followers.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

God forbid these billion dollar corporations come off as desperate to a couple of box office followers.

I'm sure they don't care. Just an observation. And good to know for predicting B.O. in the future. If we project a movie is going to get within 5m of a century milestone, we know it will be pushed there. 

[Chewy]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, and in the past studios will fudge if a movie gets within like 1m on its own, with a few notable exceptions. But this year they've started fudging like 3-4m away from milestones. It's coming off pretty desperate. I guess 95 is the new 100 because if a movie hits that, apparently studios aren't going to leave it alone anymore. 

 

Nah it's always been like this. Who can forget Superman Returns