BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[dxmatrixdt]

predicting 17.4 JW and 12.4 Incredibles.

 

here is a simple weekday chart

Spoiler

Jurassic World - 17.4 + 19.5 + 14.8 + 13.3 - 65.00 - 213.00

Incredibles 2 - 12.4 + 14.9 + 10.7 + 9.9 - 47.9 - 397.70

Oceans 8 - 1.6 + 2.0 + 1.6 + 1.5 - 6.7 - 106.98

TAG - 1.2 + 1.5 + 1.1 + 1.0 - 4.8 - 35.22

Deadpool 2 - 0.74 + 0.90 + 0.74 + 0.70 - 3.08 - 307.25

Solo: Star Wars - 0.61 + 0.73 + 0.61 + 0.61 - 2.56 - 205.20

Hereditary - 0.59 + 0.71 + 0.59 + 0.52 - 2.41 - 37.23

Superfly - 0.48 + 0.56 + 0.42 + 0.40 - 1.86 - 17.18

Infinity War - 0.35 + 0.45 + 0.35 + 0.35 - 1.50 - 671.07

Book Club - 0.21 + 0.27 + 0.24 + 0.21 - 0.93 - 65.62

Adrift - 0.12 + 0.15 + 0.12 + 0.12 - 0.51 - 29.60

(-56%) Jurassic World - 17.4 / 165.42 

(-50%) Incredibles 2 - 12.4 / 362.19

(-51%) Oceans 8 - 1.6 / 101.88

(-52%) TAG - 1.2 / 31.62

 

(-53%) Deadpool 2 - 0.74 / 304.91

(-54%) Solo: Star Wars - 0.61 / 203.25

(-45%) Hereditary - 0.59 / 35.41

(-53%) Superfly - 0.48 / 15.80

 

(-54%) Infinity War - 0.35 / 669.92

(-30%) Book Club - 0.21 / 64.90

(-47%) Adrift - 0.12 / 29.21

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

next weekend predix...

 

(-436) 435 - Adrift - $810 - 0.35 - 29.95

(-224) 448 - Book Club - $1,278 - 0.57 - 66.19

(+200) 548 - Neighbor - $3,150 - 1.73 - 6.91

(-200) 266 - Gotti - $1,359 - 0.36 - 4.06

(-900) 1,320 - Superfly - $1,148 - 1.51 - 18.69

(-500) 956 - Infinity War - $1,620 - 1.55 - 672.62

(-800) 1,202 - Hereditary - $1,485 - 1.78 - 39.01

(-600) 1,738 - Solo: Star Wars -$1,629 - 2.83 - 208.03

(-500) 1,920 - Deadpool 2 - $1,728 - 3.32 - 310.57

(-400) 2,982 - TAG - $1,836 - 5.47 - 40.69

(-300) 3,356 - Oceans 8 - $2,520 - 8.46 - 115.44

(new) 3,000 - Sicario - $4,580 - 13.74 - 15.00

(new) 2,600 - Uncle Drew - $3,572 - 9.29 - 10.00

(----) 4,410 - Incredibles 2 - $11,016 - 48.58 - 446.28

(----) 4,475 - Jurassic World 2 - $13,500 - 60.41 - 273.41

[dxmatrixdt]

any Monday numbers been posted yet?

[stripe]

It's been a great weekend. Thanks to it, we will see June record get broken this year.

 

July schedule seems solid, but not record breaker. Five of the openers should cross 100M mark

 

August has potential with Christopher Robin, Spy who dumped me, the Meg... It can't be worse than last year, that's for sure

[BK007]

9 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

FFS for the umpteenth time - THIS IS NOT NEW, this is regular business for studios to hit monetary incentives with $100m & $200m for TV and streaming sales.

I was accused of being anti-Disney the last time round, but it's the same here again. 

I wonder who down the line is getting screwed over by false numbers. 

It doesn't really matter that it's nothing new, it's bad practice because it's creative accounting. 

If the studios did not get any incentive out of it, then they wouldn't do it because no one but BO nerds cares about which films made $100m. Or maybe it might look good on some corporate shareholder's notes but really it isn't important whatsoever. Therefore, if they are getting a financial incentive out of it, it means someone else is paying that extra. What is so hard to see about that? 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

boy those old T-rexes sure have a bite.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, BK007 said:

I was accused of being anti-Disney the last time round, but it's the same here again. 

I wonder who down the line is getting screwed over by false numbers. 

It doesn't really matter that it's nothing new, it's bad practice because it's creative accounting. 

If the studios did not get any incentive out of it, then they wouldn't do it because no one but BO nerds cares about which films made $100m. Or maybe it might look good on some corporate shareholder's notes but really it isn't important whatsoever. Therefore, if they are getting a financial incentive out of it, it means someone else is paying that extra. What is so hard to see about that? 

 

It's such common knowledge that we know about it.  Do you think TV stations and streaming don't know about it?   Most of these TV stations and streaming services that pay these milestone fees are owned by movie studios or owned by corporations that also own movie studios.  ABC, NBC, FOX etc know about it   Hulu which is co owned by Disney, Comcast and Fox knows about it.  Do you think Netflix or Amazon are in the dark?   Or O/S TV stations and streaming distributors?   If they wanted to dispute it, or not pay it, or show some other movie they would.

[dxmatrixdt]

as god is my witness, I shall stay awake for months to see to it that Jurassic World makes it to 400

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

as god is my witness, I shall stay awake for months to see to it that Jurassic World makes it to 400

I think as high as 60-62% 2nd weekend drop will keep hopes of 2.67x multi alive which gives 395+.

jw1 fell 49% with 2nd Sunday falling only 2% due to FD. so the 3rd weekend didn't show much improvement for it and fell 49% again.

jw2 falling 60-62% in 2nd weekend and 49-51% in 3rd weekend is doable imo.

edit: though realistically am expecting 380+ finish.

Edited June 26, 2018 by a2k

[Jake Gittes]

10 hours ago, Chewy said:

Completely normal grosses, find a new slant

 

665	Pacific Rim	WB	$101,802,906	2013
666	Journey to the Center of the Earth	WB (NL)	$101,704,370	2008
667	Gone in 60 Seconds	BV	$101,648,571	2000
668	Maverick	WB	$101,631,272	1994
669	Sleeping with the Enemy	Fox	$101,599,005	1991
670	The Equalizer	Sony	$101,530,738	2014
671	This is the End	Sony	$101,470,202	2013
672	Eagle Eye	P/DW	$101,440,743	2008
673	The Prince of Egypt	DW	$101,413,188	1998
674	Scream 2	Dim.	$101,363,301	1997
675	Stir Crazy	Col.	$101,300,000	1980
676	Eraser	WB	$101,295,562	1996
677	Noah	Par.	$101,200,044	2014
678	Unforgiven	WB	$101,157,447	1992
679	The Cat in the Hat	Uni.	$101,149,285	2003
680	Con Air	BV	$101,117,573	1997
681	Sleepy Hollow	Par.	$101,071,502	1999
682	Collateral	DW	$101,005,703	2004
683	Contact	WB	$100,920,329	1997
684	Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle	Sony	$100,830,111	2003
685	The Pelican Brief	WB	$100,768,056	1993
686	Vanilla Sky	Par.	$100,618,344	2001
687	Arrival	Par.	$100,546,139	2016
688	Due Date	WB	$100,539,043	2010
689	The Rugrats Movie	Par.	$100,494,675	1998
690	Million Dollar Baby	WB	$100,492,203	2004
691	Airport	Uni.	$100,489,151	1970
692	Jumanji	Sony	$100,475,249	1995
693	Step Brothers	Sony	$100,468,793	2008
694	Evan Almighty	Uni.	$100,462,298	2007
695	Fifty Shades Freed	Uni.	$100,407,760	2018
696	A Wrinkle in Time	BV	$100,382,220	2018
697	Casper	Uni.	$100,328,194	1995
698	Shakespeare in Love	Mira.	$100,317,794	1998
699	Bad Teacher	Sony	$100,292,856	2011
700	Ocean's 8	WB	$100,282,222	2018
701	Yogi Bear	WB	$100,246,011	2010
702	Cowboys & Aliens	Uni.	$100,240,551	2011
703	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	Fox	$100,234,838	2017
704	Edge of Tomorrow	WB	$100,206,256	2014
705	The Hunchback of Notre Dame	BV	$100,138,851	1996
706	Seven	NL	$100,125,643	1995
707	Parenthood	Uni.	$100,047,830	1989
708	You Don't Mess with the Zohan	Sony	$100,018,837	2008
709	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$100,014,699	2016
710	Die Hard: With A Vengeance	Fox	$100,012,499	1995

 

 

Eh plenty of those movies did indeed get there in a completely normal way. PR, Journey, Equalizer, Eagle Eye, Noah, Cat in the Hat, Collateral, Due Date, Step Brothers, even Cowboys & Aliens and Kingsman 2 didn't require any fudging. Others like Million Dollar Baby and Edge of Tomorrow got there with the help of just one standard small expansion. Meanwhile Olympus Has Fallen, Green Hornet, Date Night, Meet the Robinsons, Yes Man, Public Enemies were all allowed to stop short of 100m without their distributors attempting anything out of the ordinary. But Olympus was probably the last such movie and that was over 5 years ago. 

[GraceRandolph]

150m is a good number objectively. But not when looking at the actual franchise. I mean the first one did over 200 million. That’s a 50 million decline!  It’s a worrying decline. And BOTs hypocrisy shines through again - MCU would have been lynched for a drop like this. 

[That One Girl]

10 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

150m is a good number objectively. But not when looking at the actual franchise. I mean the first one did over 200 million. That’s a 50 million decline!  It’s a worrying decline. And BOTs hypocrisy shines through again - MCU would have been lynched for a drop like this. 

 

No, the MCU would’ve been spun by all the fanboys as “lol it still made 150M, it’s a massive success”

[Bishop54]

11 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

150m is a good number objectively. But not when looking at the actual franchise. I mean the first one did over 200 million. That’s a 50 million decline!  It’s a worrying decline. And BOTs hypocrisy shines through again - MCU would have been lynched for a drop like this. 

The first one overperformed due to nostalgia, how many times must people ignore that fact?

[SteveJaros]

8 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

The first one overperformed due to nostalgia, how many times must people ignore that fact?

 

Eh, sure there was some nostalgia involved, but there was also the memory of how a great initial movie had petered out into the dull 1997 sequel and its even duller 2001 follow-up. There was baggage their too..

 

The main reason JW did what it did was that it was really good for what it was. It was just about perfect summer entertainment.

[SteveJaros]

23 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

150m is a good number objectively. But not when looking at the actual franchise. I mean the first one did over 200 million. That’s a 50 million decline!  It’s a worrying decline. And BOTs hypocrisy shines through again - MCU would have been lynched for a drop like this. 

 

I think you misspelled "DCU"? That would go through the wringer for a 25% drop, unfairly too, as is criticism of this film's box office. 

[John Marston]

28 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

150m is a good number objectively. But not when looking at the actual franchise. I mean the first one did over 200 million. That’s a 50 million decline!  It’s a worrying decline. And BOTs hypocrisy shines through again - MCU would have been lynched for a drop like this. 

 

 

 

I think it’s because movies like Star Wars and Marvel set up sequels and have loose ends therefore we expect more people to want to rush out to the sequel. Jurassic World was a self contained story and tr sequel was just “more dinosaurs”. Most of the general audience probably didn’t even know Fallen Kingdom was happening until marketing started 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Kind of difficult to slight a $148M+ OW DOM. While I wish JWFK would've went full on Jurassic Park or full on Carnosaur 2 instead of a mishmash of half measures, it's summer blockbuster season. The weekdays will be very, very healthy. WOM seems mixed but certainly not negative. JWFK will approach a 3.0 multiplier.

 

I2 should continue to have strong legs and easily earn a 3.0 or better multiplier. 

 

And, given the early buzz, I'd be shocked if AMatW doesn't open to at least $85M+ DOM and approach a 3.0 multiplier as well.

[Firepower]

35 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

The first one overperformed due to nostalgia, how many times must people ignore that fact?

That's just an excuse, other movies in similar positon don't drop this much.

[Krissykins]

Universal seem happy with it, their second biggest opening weekend ever. 

 

Wont be long until it’s another billion grosser. 

 

Full steam ahead with the sequel! 

[Rebeccas]

This kind of sequel drop isn't really as worrying as the TLJ one tbh. This is a series that anyone can watch at any point and basically get the point (dino destruction). Star Wars is a franchise that's really storyline driven so if your audience drops off at any point, it could definitely have some bearing going forward.