Weekend Thread: Equalizer 2 pulls off an upset win over Mamma Mia 2 - 35.83M to 34.44M

[a2k]

JW2 has a good shot at 10m after a strong Thu hold of -7%

 

2.9 (+56%)

4.1 (+41%)

3.0 (-27%)

= 10.0

 

That will give it 383 cume and around 410 dom.

Edited July 20, 2018 by a2k

[KJsooner]

JW2 going to cross 1.2 billion this weekend, and some dudes thought it would do well under 1 billion. 🤣 

 

Anyone see Thyrlos around? He seems awfully quiet lately. I miss his JW2 doooooomed talk.

[baumer]

I was pretty disappointed with Equalizer 2. The trailers were pretty misleading.

[Valonqar]

59 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Quick thoughts (I know, Deadline early estimates, yadda yadda):

 

I can see Mamma Mia crossing $40M when further estimates arrive, but hopefully it goes above Ocean's 8, because I have a club that needs support.

MM2 is gonna demolish O8 OS which didn't care for O8. So even if MM2 dom is on par with O8 or little under, it's still going to outgross it WW by a landslide. 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Valonqar

[MovieMan89]

Awful for Skyscraper. Gonna be the biggest flop ever for The Rock purely on a DOM level. Even Baywatch and Hercules made a significant larger chunk of their budget DOM than SS will. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

MM2 is gonna demolish O8 OS which didn't care for O8. So even if MM2 dom is on par with O8 or little under, it's still going to outgross it WW by a landslide. 

I think it will demolish it DOM too with an OW around 40. Musicals in recent years have had crazy legs if WOM is good among the target audience, which it already sounds like it is. 

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

MM2 is gonna demolish O8 OS which didn't care for O8. So even if MM2 dom is on par with O8 or little under, it's still going to outgross it WW by a landslide. 

Mamma Mia! was always going to do better OS considering how big the first film was OS. Ocean's 8 is still a success and the two aren't really comparable.

[Poseidon]

HR:

$15m/$41m+ Mamma Mia 2

$11m+/$30m+ Equalizer 2 (Don't see that happening with a $8m real friday)
$3m-$5m Dark Web

 

$10m Skyscraper

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-equalizer-2-score-3m-box-office-previews-1128666

[Poseidon]

Variety:

$41m Mamma Mia
$33m Equalizer
$23m Hotel Transylvania 

$15m Ant-Man

$10m Skyscraper

$8m Jurassic Word 2
$4m Dark Web
$4m Purge

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-mamma-mia-equalizer-1202879527/

[Jonwo]

What's the betting Ol Parker is tapped to direct Wicked if Stephen Daldry drops out? 

 

It's interesting that musicals has seen a real resurgence, Mamma Mia! was already a hit a decade ago but at the time, that was the exception but now every studio has musicals in development. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

What's the betting Ol Parker is tapped to direct Wicked if Stephen Daldry drops out? 

 

It's interesting that musicals has seen a real resurgence, Mamma Mia! was already a hit a decade ago but at the time, that was the exception but now every studio has musicals in development. 

 

 

You're exactly right...when Rom Coms receded over the last decade, Musicals rose and took their place.  We'll see in a couple years if that placement will be cyclical or more permanent...

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

You're exactly right...when Rom Coms receded over the last decade, Musicals rose and took their place.  We'll see in a couple years if that placement will be cyclical or more permanent...

Broadway and theatre in general has seen an uptick thanks to things like Hamilton and Dear Evan Hansen so I wonder if there is correlation with why movie musicals are doing well. 

 

Universal should move Wicked from December 2019, where I suspect it'll replaced by Cats and move it to July 2020. A great Wicked movie could be huge. 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2018 by Jonwo

[MovieMan89]

AMATW in for a slightly better hold than AM's third weekend if those projections pan out. Definitely can see it following AM's holds close for the rest of its run. 

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

AMATW in for a slightly better hold than AM's third weekend if those projections pan out. Definitely can see it following AM's holds close for the rest of its run. 

Agreed. I think it will do better than 15M. It may get hurt somewhat by MI:F next week but it should hold really well this week and after the next. I don't know if Disney will put it in $ theaters later but that really extended AM's legs last time. 

[StevenG]

4 hours ago, Webslinger said:

Good starts for Mamma Mia! and Equalizer, even if neither one really broke out. The race for the top spot should be tight.

A 40 million-dollar weekend for a movie musical is not breaking out?

[MrGlass2]

$40M+ would be magnificent for MM2.

[MovieMan89]

Can see Wicked having an outside chance at 300 if the marketing and film delivers. Musicals are definitely hot right now. 

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, StevenG said:

A 40 million-dollar weekend for a movie musical is not breaking out?

For a sequel of one of the most beloved movie around the world of the 2000s that made 186m adjusted for ticket price, it could surprise and leg outs, but 40m OW is not in the high end of the possible for it imo, 55m would have not even surprised me.

 

40m would probably head up for doing less than the 2008 movie did with a 168m in 2018 dollar.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Barnack

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, StevenG said:

A 40 million-dollar weekend for a movie musical is not breaking out?

If it ticks up to 42.1m or higher for the weekend, it will be the second biggest live action musical opening ever. And really the first, because BATB is in a much different category of appeal than a normal musical. 

[MovieMan89]

Btw, with the Academy's bizarre obsession with Daldry, expect Wicked to sweep the Oscars if it does end up a massive commercial success.