Weekend Thread: DHD Friday #'s (p.14) ~ The Megalogross 17M, Slenderman 4-5M, BlacKkKlansman 3.8-4M

[Shawn Robbins]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A version of Venom that was even fresh on RT would have a Suicide Squad OW. Huge buzz, popular character, good release date, right star. As it stands, I'm predicting about 65-70 OW with a score in the teens on RT and "worst movie of the year" kinda buzz.

Even as a huge Spideyverse and Venom fan, I'm scratching my head a bit on the Suicide Squad comps to the movie. He's more niche popular than mainstream popular than Joker and Harley, in my opinion. Maybe I'm wrong though.

[Premium George]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Even as a huge Spideyverse and Venom fan, I'm scratching my head a bit on the Suicide Squad comps to the movie. He's more niche popular than mainstream popular than Joker and Harley, in my opinion. Maybe I'm wrong though.

The only data we are basing this on are crazy views and likes.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Our job isn't to rely strictly on absolute comparisons. It's to weigh the pros and cons, and rely on actual data more than personal opinion as much as possible. Sometimes that doesn't work as well as other times, but it's preferable to pulling numbers out of thin air, IMHO.

The actual data says that Venom trailer has 67 million views on the main channel with more likes than any other comic book movie ever besides both Infinity War trailers. The second trailer will cross 30 million views on the main channel very soon with more likes than most of comic book movies, including Deadpool 1-2 trailers. Social media activity is also very very strong. A Marvel-based movie in 2018 with this kind of buzz numbers can't open 30-50 mln max, that's ridiculous, even with bad RT. Those ridiculously low trackings is the result of the same mistake as when first Deadpool was released: many people were stating that Deadpool is too niche, not very popular, so numbers won't be big, which turned out to be BS as I was talking back then. The same situation with Venom, people again seriously underestimate how famous and popular the character is, and those huge numbers of views/social media activity only prove it.

28 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 He's more niche popular than mainstream popular than Joker and Harley, in my opinion.

Venom is much more popular than Harley, she's not even close. He's one of the most famous cbm villlians, including among average Joes.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Firepower

[Shawn Robbins]

4 minutes ago, Premium George said:

The only data we are basing this on are crazy views and likes.

Interesting... Maybe it'll pan out for this one. I usually feel pretty confident on most comic book movies when it comes to OW (Panther notwithstanding), but Venom is definitely one I can see going hard in either direction right now. The sentiment scores don't jive with the level of discussion in a very positive way.

 

If it can manage to these massive Logan/Strange/Guardians numbers or higher though, at least that will mean an excellent two straight months at the box office overall. October looks pretty strong even without an overperformance from Venom.

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Venom is much more popular than Harley, she's not even close. He's one of the most famous cbm villlians, including among average Joes.

2

 

(Also @Shawn , if you're still reading this: You increased the tracking by 12% for Crazy Rich Asians.  Do you see it going any higher?  Maybe I'm just hanging out in niche parts of the internet, but it seems like it's gonna blow past tracking?  Thoughts?)

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, Firepower said:

The actual data says that Venom trailer has 67 million views on the main channel with more likes than any other comic book movie ever besides both Infinity War trailers. The second trailer will cross 30 million views on the main channel very soon with more likes than most of comic book movies, including Deadpool 1-2 trailers. Social media activity is also very very strong. A Marvel-based movie in 2018 with this kind of buzz numbers can't open 30-50 mln max, that's ridiculous, even with bad RT. Those ridiculously low trackings is the result of the same mistake as when first Deadpool was released: many people were stating that Deadpool is too niche, not very popular, so numbers won't be big, which turned out to be BS as I was talking back then. The same situation with Venom, people again seriously underestimate how famous and popular this character is, and those huge numbers of views is the result of it.

Venom is much more popular than Harley, she's not even close. He's one of the most famous cbm villlians, including among average Joes.

 

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

 

I would just be happy to see MEG hit 100 mill.  I'm pretty sure it will but I don't see how it comes anywhere close to HT3.  That would be a huge multiplier.  Don't see it happening.

I think, unless WOM is atrocious (and having not seen it, maybe it is) that $100M is probably an easy goal to reach.  Many reasons, but one of the biggest is the current tightness of most midsize to smaller theaters.  Most only allocated 1 screen (or 2 smaller ones) to Meg, and they are trying to play "catch up to demand" this weekend (I mean, I just checked one of my tracked locals, and there's almost no seats left for today, especially no good ones)...so it's not just the dog days and Labor Day that could help push its legs, but the fact that theaters really didn't plan for this to go that big...

 

But, I could be totally wrong...I know you saw the movie, so your gut might be better:)...

[Shawn Robbins]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

 

(Also @Shawn , if you're still reading this: You increased the tracking by 12% for Crazy Rich Asians.  Do you see it going any higher?  Maybe I'm just hanging out in niche parts of the internet, but it seems like it's gonna blow past tracking?  Thoughts?)

I think you're probably right. We aim to low-ball anything that's more difficult to get a read on than other films, and that's a good example of one (as is Venom).

[Firepower]

11 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

When cbm movie with Harley in it will make 900 mln WW, then we'll talk. Birds of Prey/Gotham City Sirens will barely make a half of what Venom will make alone.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Firepower

[baumer]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think, unless WOM is atrocious (and having not seen it, maybe it is) that $100M is probably an easy goal to reach.  Many reasons, but one of the biggest is the current tightness of most midsize to smaller theaters.  Most only allocated 1 screen (or 2 smaller ones) to Meg, and they are trying to play "catch up to demand" this weekend (I mean, I just checked one of my tracked locals, and there's almost no seats left for today, especially no good ones)...so it's not just the dog days and Labor Day that could help push its legs, but the fact that theaters really didn't plan for this to go that big...

 

But, I could be totally wrong...I know you saw the movie, so your gut might be better:)...

 

I think a 2.5X in a dead August is reasonasble.  Off of a 40 opening, I'm hoping for closer to 110.

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, Firepower said:

When cbm movie with Harley in it will make 900 mln WW, then we'll talk. Birds of Prey/Gotham City Sirens will barely make a half of what Venom alone will make.

You know what, I will take that bet.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

You know what, I will take that bet.  

 

I would too.

[Firepower]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

You know what, I will take that bet.  

I already prepared Denzel gif for non-believers when Venom OW numbers come in.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Firepower said:

 Birds of Prey/Gotham City Sirens will barely make a half of what Venom will make alone.

I’ll take this in reverse.

[Firepower]

Spider Man movie with Venom and mixed reception - $890 mln WW unadjusted

Joker-hyped movie with Harley, some big celebrities and mixed reception - $745 mln WW

 

Venom makes almost 2 times more than Birds of Prey

Edited August 11, 2018 by Firepower

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Firepower said:

Spider Man movie with Venom and mixed reception - $890 mln WW unadjusted

Joker-hyped movie with Harley, some big celebrities and mixed reception - $745 mln WW

 

Venom makes almost 2 times more than Birds of Prey

Spider-Man movies w/o Venom did $800m WW +

 

The forced ham handed poorly done inclusion of Venom was a large part of the reason reviews and WOM were mixed.

[Yandereprime101189]

Venom's gonna do fine but it won't do Deadpool numbers.

[Firepower]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Spider-Man movies w/o Venom did $800m WW +

 

The forced ham handed poorly done inclusion of Venom was a large part of the reason reviews and WOM were mixed.

Spider Man 2 made 783 mln WW. Spider Man 3 wouldn't have made almost 900 mln WW without Venom, he was the main hook for the movie, many people anticipated him in it. With Spider Man 2 level quality it would have crossed 1 bln WW.

[MrGlass2]

It isn't only the YouTube views; Venom is a superhero movie in 2018, it isn't going below $100M DOM or even $200M. AntMan2 is the lowest in the last two years and it will still end around $220M.

 

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think a 2.5X in a dead August is reasonasble.  Off of a 40 opening, I'm hoping for closer to 110.

Agreed but first let's see if The MEG can get to $40M OW, or if it was frontloaded.

[Legion Again]

I've literally never encountered this idea that we should somehow credit Venom with the success of Spider-Man 3. It's absolutely bonkers.    

 

Spider-Man 2 was elevated by its villain, and Spider-Man 3's numbers are down a lot to Spider-Man 2. Venom was part of what caused the movie to have bad legs, he's not a big draw even in a movie with spider, let alone one without.