Weekend Thread: Estimates ~ CRA 25.235M, The Meg 21.15M, M22 13.62M, M:I-F 10.5M, Alpha 10.5M, DCR 8.862M, BK 7M, SM 4.965M, HT3:SV 3.675M, MM!HWGA 3.385M

[sfran43]

@baumerLooks like  you were right! JW will most likely pass $1.3B within a few weeks or sooner!

1	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,045.8	$678.6	33.2%	$1,367.2	66.8%
2	Black Panther	BV	$1,346.8	$700.1	52.0%	$646.8	48.0%
3	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	Uni.	$1,290.0	$411.8	31.9%	$878.2	68.1%
4	Incredibles 2	BV	$1,120.9	$594.1	53.0%	$526.8	47.0%
5	Deadpool 2	Fox	$733.6	$318.3	43.4%	$415.3	56.6%
6	Ready Player One	WB	$582.0	$137.0	23.5%	$445.0	76.5%
7	Operation Red Sea	WGUSA	$579.2	$1.5	0.3%	$577.7	99.7%
8	Detective Chinatown 2	WB	$544.1	$2.0	0.4%	$542.1	99.6%
9	Mission: Impossible - Fallout	Par.	$501.4	$180.7	36.0%	$320.7	64.0%
10	Ant-Man and the Wasp	BV	$465.6	$208.4	44.8%	$257.2	55.2%

[Chaz]

$5.9 million is standing between Incredibles 2 and $600 million. $605 million looks likely.

[Jake Gittes]

The Wife opened pretty well in limited release. If it squeezes out a few million maybe SPC will push Glenn Close for awards. 

[MaxAggressor]

@Jake Gittes & @MrPink Paramount is assuming that MI:6 will drop 37% on Sunday. They could very well be wildly off target there and the drop is probably going to be closer to 30% or just under. Then the overall weekend figure will be close to (10.9-11)m.

[filmlover]

The Meg is also looking at $125-130M total. The one-two punch of that and Crazy Rich Asians must be music to WB's ears after what's been a mostly quiet year for them so far aside from Ready Player One and Ocean's 8.

[MrPink]

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

@Jake Gittes & @MrPink Paramount is assuming that MI:6 will drop 37% on Sunday. They could very well be wildly off target there and the drop is probably going to be closer to 30% or just under. Then the overall weekend figure will be close to (10.9-11)m.

 

I think it'll probably be more around 33-34%. More schools going back in tomorrow so Sunday drops could be as ugly as Paramount are expecting. If it did climb to 11m somehow, then I'd say 215 is a tossup at that point.

Edited August 19, 2018 by MrPink

[Jake Gittes]

Let's give MI6 an optimistic 30% Sunday drop, so we get a 10.8 actual weekend and a 181 cume, and then give it the same multiplier RN had from this point on... that would result in a 216.4 total. It's likely to come down to the wire. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

Edited August 19, 2018 by sfran43

[Alli]

52 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

what is gitesh smoking? 750M is outta question. the target should be 700M.  It only has china to open

[Valonqar]

57 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The weekend multiplier for Crazy Rich Asians indicates it's in for a very long run. I can see $125M happening and potentially higher too.

 

Yep, WOM is great. Sequels are coming.  I just need them to announce CRG officially.

 

BK is shockingly a Saturday movie with good Sunday holds. I hope it doesn't go under 7M. Great mix of fun and importance. 

 

The Meg is a beast. That's all. 

 

 

[Jonwo]

31 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Meg is also looking at $125-130M total. The one-two punch of that and Crazy Rich Asians must be music to WB's ears after what's been a mostly quiet year for them so far aside from Ready Player One and Ocean's 8.

Rampage was pretty successful as well even if it didn’t quite hit $100m domestic 

 

Things with likely ramp up with The Nun and Smallfoot in September 

[Xavier]

21 minutes ago, Alli said:

what is gitesh smoking? 750M is outta question. the target should be 700M.  It only has china to open

China, Italy and Greece.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Rampage was pretty successful as well even if it didn’t quite hit $100m domestic 

 

Things with likely ramp up with The Nun and Smallfoot in September 

Things are looking up for them for the rest of the year between those two, A Star is Born, Fantastic Beasts, and Aquaman. Could see all them reaching $100M+ (Smallfoot actually looks funnier than Lego Ninjago or Storks ever did).

[Boxofficerules]

Slender Man is still the only movie available to most people on moviepAss

[Mojoguy]

Why no The Darkest Minds weekend numbers?

The theater drop has to be massive, but there some showtimes when I do a search so it's not like it's completely gone.

Is FOX trying to make everyone forget that the movie exists?

[Yandereprime101189]

Fox probably forgot it exists by now

[Blaze Heatnix]

The Equalizer 2 is definitely going to make 100 million domestic.

 

It's at 123 million worldwide now, with tons of new markets yet to get the movie. The Equalizer 3 is happening.

[Jonwo]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Things are looking up for them for the rest of the year between those two, A Star is Born, Fantastic Beasts, and Aquaman. Could see all them reaching $100M+ (Smallfoot actually looks funnier than Lego Ninjago or Storks ever did).

I'm not sure how Smallfoot will do because Storks wasn't successful but WB is already promoting it with the Smallfoot yeti village and being the first kids film in ages will also help. I do want to be successful because it'd be good for WAG to have a original animated film succeed. 

 

Given A Star is Born is doing the festival circuit, it does strike me that WB is very confident on its chances.

[Webslinger]

Crazy Rich Asians had a really good opening. Warner Bros did a great job of building and capitalizing upon hype for the film's release. It should have no trouble staying atop the box office through Labor Day and surpassing $100 million.

 

The Meg held up decently enough and should finish with a domestic total around $125 million or thereabouts. Factoring in the overseas gross, it will ultimately be a winner for Warner Bros despite the assumptions of gloom-and-doom leading up to its release.

 

Mile 22 did okay. It looked too generic to really break out.

 

Alpha's opening is a pyrrhic victory: it didn't do as badly as anticipated, but it's still a far cry from an opening that would have put it in line to be in good shape against its budget. I guess the decision to abandon the more serious tone of the earlier trailers in favor of a light, family-friendly ad campaign (despite the PG-13 rating) helped it to some extent.

 

Mission: Impossible's holds the last two weekends haven't been bad, but they've been sharper than what I was anticipating after that really good second weekend hold. We'll see whether its legs can kick in next weekend, but at this stage, it may have to settle for falling a few million shy of becoming the highest domestic grosser in the series.

 

Christopher Robin stabilized nicely after last weekend's rough drop. We'll see whether its late legs (and some possible fudging shenanigans) can carry it over $100 million.

 

BlacKkKlansman held up pretty well. It should enjoy strong staying power going forward.

 

Looks like Hotel Transylvania 3 is going to make a serious run at topping its predecessor as the top grosser in the series.