Official Oct 5 to Oct 7 Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Venom - 80M (205M WW OW); A Star is Born - 42.6M

[DAJK]

Musicals have been on a freaking roll lately haven't they. La La Land "won" best picture for 3 minutes, Beauty and the Beast made 500M domestic (almost 1.3B WW), Mama Mia 2 retained a respectable amount of its audience and made nearly 400M WW, and now a Star Is Born is likely gonna make something like 200-300 domestic.

 

Even the ones that initially flop (ahem Greatest Showman) go on to be like "nah lemme just earn a fuckin 20 multiplier and blow all your minds"

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Musicals have been on a freaking roll lately haven't they. La La Land "won" best picture for 3 minutes, Beauty and the Beast made 500M domestic (almost 1.3B WW), Mama Mia 2 retained a respectable amount of its audience and made nearly 400M WW, and now a Star Is Born is likely gonna make something like 200-300 domestic.

 

Even the ones that initially flop (ahem Greatest Showman) go on to be like "nah lemme just earn a fuckin 20 multiplier and blow all your minds"

No wonder Spielberg is remaking West Side Story! 

 

 

[MattW]

Antman 2's opening day was 2.9x its previews in July.  Black Panther OD was 3.0x previews in February.  Other superheroes all have higher opening day multis I believe.  I think Venom should be doing 18+ today, then +15% Saturday and -40% Sunday puts it over 60.

 

10+21+24+14=69

[John Marston]

Crap. Now they are going to green light more of these villain movies 

[Brainbug]

Just now, John Marston said:

Crap. Now they are going to green light more of these villain movies 

 

Meanwhile, im still waiting for my Anna Kendrick Squirrel Girl movie.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

    

 

Sony’s awful spideyless-spideyverse is probably moving forward with a preview like that, unless it manages to totally collapse over the next 10 days or so.

[Rumpot]

You guys can't be serious about Venom losing Saturday or Sunday to ASIB.  This isn't summer, kids are in school.  This movie is made for them and matinees are gonna be full.  

 

Frontloaded blah blah, RT score blah blah. None of that matters.  And predictions of 60M or lower are silly at this point.  

 

I'm watching both Venom and ASIB this weekend and think both will do great, but Venom has a much wider potential audience and anyone who thinks RT effects more than a fringe group of people for a movie about a gooey monster that eats people and talks about it is just plain wrong

[a2k]

Paranormal Activity 3 did 8 previews and 52.57 ow. That 6.57x multi gives Venom 65.71 ow.

Paranormal Activity 3's OD was 3.29x it's previews. That gives Venom 32.9 OD.

 

Can't get much front-loaded than that in October. It has been 7 years of exploding preview business though.

Edited October 5, 2018 by a2k

[Jonwo]

Just now, a2k said:

Paranormal Activity 3 did 8 previews and 52.57 ow. That 6.57x multi gives Venom 65.71 ow.

Paranormal Activity 3's OD was 3.29x it's previews. That gives Venom 32.9 OD.

 

Can't get much front-loaded than that in October.

$65-70m seems about right, while it's not a sequel, it's going to be very frontloaded. 

[CoolioD1]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Crap. Now they are going to green light more of these villain movies 

if this is the only way i'm gonna finally get Kraven in a movie then so be it.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Just waiting on the Hydro-Man announcement from Sony.

[dxmatrixdt]

-new Venom - 63.82 - 73.82

-new Star/Born - 45.14 - 49.69

-55% Night School - 11.71

-47% Smallfoot - 11.71 - 39.57

-48% House/Clock - 6.53

-45% Simple Favor - 3.58

-50% The Nun - 2.73 - 113.49

-50% Crazy Rich - 2.05 - 169.13

-48% Hellfest - 2.03 

-61% Predator - 1.49

-67% White Boy Rick - 0.79 - 23.53
-64% Peppermint - 0.64
+73% Christopher Robin - 0.59
-65% The Meg - 0.36 - 142.59
-42% Mission 6 - 0.36
-67% Searching - 0.32 - 25.52
-61% Little Women - 0.26 - 1.26
-66% Unbroken 2 - 0.17 - 6.00
-67% Black Klansman - 0.15
 

[Jonwo]

I'm surprised Spider-Woman hasn't been considered unless she's off-limited. 

 

 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I'm surprised Spider-Woman hasn't been considered unless she's off-limited. 

 

 

I think there are shared rights with the character between Sony and Disney. Something like that. 

[Johnny Tran]

Can't Sony use Spider-Man if they want to?  I haven't read any reviews on Venom.  I don't think it's possible for reviewers to be fair and balanced with comic book movies anymore so I will just go see it sometime this weekend with some buddies and pray that it's entertaining. 

[Empire]

10M previews is a great start for Venom. Think it will do 75M+. 

 

ASIB should do over 50M. 

[MrGlass2]

For Venom, I wonder if opening against a $40M+ movie means that the legs after the OW will be a bit better than expected.

 

ASiB is sure to have great legs, even if the OW seems to include two days of previews (that will lower the measured multiplier).

[Welfin]

Venom cannot fail. 

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

For Venom, I wonder if opening against a $40M+ movie means that the legs after the OW will be a bit better than expected.

 

ASiB is sure to have great legs, even if the OW seems to include two days of previews (that will lower the measured multiplier).

Anyone with moderate knowledge of box office though will include the fact that the 4.55M previews were really including the 1.35 from Tuesday/Wednesday. The weekend multi should really be looked at as coming off of 3.2M previews. So if anyone complains that previews/OD ratio was front-loaded and uses the 4.55 number I'd say they just really haven't done enough research. 

[TalismanRing]

54 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'm surprised Spider-Woman hasn't been considered unless she's off-limited. 

 

 

I think it's some weird thing where they can use the title but not a specific character.   The main first Spider-Woman Jessica Drew isn't a spin off SM character - she got her powers through HYDRA and there are differences and she didn't start as a SM supporting character.   So that the MCU can use Jessica Drew but maybe not her Spider-Woman title.  While Sony can use the title (there have been other SW and girls) but not Drew.