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Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

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2 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

There’s no way they’d open this movie a week before The Marvels. Even if you think that movie won’t do well either, there’s no point in sabotaging this film completely by opening it right before another CBM. WB has made some bad choices this year but Aquaman 2’s December date isn’t one of them. Dune 2 on the other hand feels like a movie that could do well in a lot of different slots and will be fine in its November date (and also fine if it gets pushed to next year). 

If they just wrapped up reshoots before the strike the movie probably won't be ready to move up a month and a half up like that. If Dune moves, it's likely moving to Furiosa, which has the best chance of getting a similar exclusivity for IMAX like Dune would lose with a delay.

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What WB does right now to Aquaman is absolutely the best thing they could have done if they 100% knew what a turd this movie will be.

 

- Staying in the best month possible for movies, with all the holidays and legs will help it most.

- Not putting any single marketing campaign this far out to reduce the P&A cost also reducing possible controversy and bad publicity.

- Not delaying it further to maximize the December spot and give enough time to DC reboot.

- Quiet and silent about this to make people forget this exists and WB can just get over with DCEU

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Trailer is coming in a matter of days, apparently

 

Not expecting anything from it´s narrative but i really hope the VFX and production design is amazing like the first one considering the huge budget and the big post production time. Those concept arts are gorgeous 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Even if the movie gets poor reception I still can’t see it having a mega drop. The first one is the highest grossing DC movie despite the somewhat mixed critical and audience reception (as well as the state of the DCEU at the time). I think it at least has a chance of not flopping.

if it gets bad reception it's making Flash numbers worldwide. WB isn't gonna even try marketing this one as hard as they did Flash. It's only prayer is that audiences like it, which if that happens it would have a prayer of crossing Quantumania worldwide.

Edited by Bob Train
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1 hour ago, Speedorito said:

Even if the movie gets poor reception I still can’t see it having a mega drop. The first one is the highest grossing DC movie despite the somewhat mixed critical and audience reception (as well as the state of the DCEU at the time). I think it at least has a chance of not flopping.

But that's only because of China. Obviously Christmas will help again and I expect this one to have shorter runtime (100-110 minutes) but hard to imagine anything less than 25%+ drop WW-China.

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The previous Indiana Jones movie and the first Aquaman movie both made about $800m WW-C. However, Indy 5 only made $380m WW-C. If Aquaman 2 makes that much, and add in optimistically $50m from China, a Worldwide total of $430m would happen.

 

Now, unlike Indiana Jones, there have been a half dozen DCEU movies that were released since Aquaman 1, with bad to terrible audience reception, which have destroyed the last atom of goodwill the DCEU had left. So it could go even lower than that. 

 

The negative goodwill the DCEU has now is unprecedented. Add in the fact that it has had horrible test screenings, extensive reshoots, and a worldwide total under Flash could be possible. I doubt WB bothers marketing it as hard as they did for Flash anyways.

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1 hour ago, Alexander said:

But that's only because of China. Obviously Christmas will help again and I expect this one to have shorter runtime (100-110 minutes) but hard to imagine anything less than 25%+ drop WW-China.

By mega drop I meant like 70%. I think 25% or more is definitely possible.

 

25 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

The previous Indiana Jones movie and the first Aquaman movie both made about $800m WW-C. However, Indy 5 only made $380m WW-C. If Aquaman 2 makes that much, and add in optimistically $50m from China, a Worldwide total of $430m would happen.

 

Now, unlike Indiana Jones, there have been a half dozen DCEU movies that were released since Aquaman 1, with bad to terrible audience reception, which have destroyed the last atom of goodwill the DCEU had left. So it could go even lower than that. 

 

The negative goodwill the DCEU has now is unprecedented. Add in the fact that it has had horrible test screenings, extensive reshoots, and a worldwide total under Flash could be possible. I doubt WB bothers marketing it as hard as they did for Flash anyways.

I know this movie has a bazillion factors against it and I don’t expect it to be as big as Aquaman 1 (even if you take out China), but I don’t think a 15 year old sequel that starred an 80 year old man is the best comparison.

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13 hours ago, Speedorito said:

Even if the movie gets poor reception I still can’t see it having a mega drop. The first one is the highest grossing DC movie despite the somewhat mixed critical and audience reception (as well as the state of the DCEU at the time). I think it at least has a chance of not flopping.

Remember China is no longer a major factor. It's defintely not making anything near $300M in China. Best case scenario, $80M in China and that would already be a 25 drop WW. Add that with eroding interest in DC and CBMs and I think we could be looking at a 50%+ drop. 

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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