CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

[Daxtreme]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Tell your friend to go again so that they can explain why the movie is pure SJW trash. And then after they do that tell them to watch it again so they can give you specific scenes as evidence 

 

 

 

I'm out of likes

Edited March 8, 2019 by Daxtreme

[Deep Wang]

59 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I warned you not to set your expectations too high about the presales. Marvel movies are becoming very presales heavy, simply because they are doing a really good job in getting people excited about this franchise. Not because of superhero fatigue, not because people are hating Captain Marvel.

 

Presales showed us this was going to make a lot of money.  Guess what?  It is making a lot of money.

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Am I missing something? Are people actually expecting CM to beat TLJ or is that a joke? Because so far, if I was to guesstimate its final WW gross, it'd probaby be something like $930m ($380m DOM & $550m OS).

It’ll probably be closer to TLJ than 930, though over TLJ is quite the stretch at this point.

[lorddemaxus]

21 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I didn't know opening was set to be that high, regardless I stand by my point that "locked" is used too much aroudn here. if it opens to 350M ww for example then 1B is in no way locked.

I think it will be quite domestic heavy also.

But 450 mil is very likely. The movie is looking to make at least 150 mil in the US, at least 90 mil in China. The rest of the world would just need 240 mil which isn't going to be difficult considering that a few other international. The movie already made 44 mil OS on Thursday.

[HouseOfTheSun]

What social aspect was really even touched on the movie. I can only think of 1 and it wasn’t even a major part of the movie 

[Porthos]

So I'm guessing those massive amount of showings in Sacramento caused it to over-perform in my town ever so slightly.

 

Ah well, 20.7 is still an excellent number and would have been on the high end of my 19-21 thoughts just four days ago.

 

So congrats for the good number (if not my data ;)).  Let's see where the weekend goes from here.  

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 It’ll probably be closer to TLJ than 930, though over TLJ is quite the stretch at this point.

I don't see that happening. Although more than a billion is confirmed at this point, I don't see more than 1.13 billion (which would be closer to TLJ than 930 mil) happening.

[LexJoker]

CW and AQM should be the target. Its not doing TLJ numbers.

[Fullbuster]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Presales showed us this was going to make a lot of money.  Guess what?  It is making a lot of money.

 

Poor Napoleon took a beating ^^"

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So I'm guessing those massive amount of showings in Sacramento caused it to over-perform in my town ever so slightly.

 

Ah well, 20.7 is still an excellent number and would have been on the high end of my 19-21 thoughts just four days ago.

 

So congrats for the good number (if not my data ;)).  Let's see where the weekend goes from here.  

Your data has actually been really spot on for these movies. Its crazy how you were able to build up an archive like the one you have and use it to compare current movies being released. The great part is that the data you provide is really really close to what the Thursday numbers end up being. Your range for CM has been in the $19-21M range and that's where it opened for Thursday previews. So thanks for all the work that you do as I am sure it's not easy. 

 

But I think we both know what the next logical step is. Start asking Deadline to pay you for your estimates. Your estimates are closer to actuals than what they typically provide 

[jedijake]

2 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

CW and AQM should be the target. Its not doing TLJ numbers.

What about Hunger Games: Catching Fire domestic numbers?

[ThomasNicole]

40 minutes ago, Avatree said:

less guaranteed. BP could not do 0.5A, no way captain marvel can.

 

1B is not guaranteed for a start so lets not get ahead of ourselves too much.

it's coming for a $ 450M - 490M worldwide debut, i mean, even BvS legs would put CM around $ 950 - 1B

 

i don't think this will pass BP / TLJ or even come closer to then... but $ 1B is pretty much guaranteed with this debut

[Porthos]

Also, I can't purely blame my town for going nuts on show times, as I was also looking the Fandango bump the last three days as supporting evidence.

 

Should have stuck to my guns with the 19-21 predict I had for weeks.

 

So congrats to Captain Marvel for going past 20.  A sign of a very strong debut. 👍

 

 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Poor Napoleon took a beating ^^"

[Legion Again]

Very optimistic but within reason would be beating I2’s 1.24 to make top 5 SH movies WW. Pessimistic but realistic falling short of TDKR but above TDK and being #10. Either way insane for a Solo first entry.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Thursday skewing 60/40 male likely bodes well for a good multiplier off that 20.7 for the opening weekend.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What about Hunger Games: Catching Fire domestic numbers?

assuming CM will debut around $ 155M, a 2.75x multiplier is enough to pass Catching Fire, which is possible since WOM seems really good and it doesn't have so much competition...  i personally think it'll fall between THG and CF

[HenryK81]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also, I can't purely blame my town for going nuts on show times, as I was also looking the Fandango bump the last three days as supporting evidence.

 

Should have stuck to my guns with the 19-21 predict I had for weeks.

 

So congrats to Captain Marvel for going past 20.  A sign of a very strong debut. 👍

 

 

Wait, so what were your OW #'s for CM again?

[Lordmandeep]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Thursday skewing 60/40 male likely bodes well for a good multiplier off that 20.7 for the opening weekend.

 

Personally think this has way more of a MCU fanbase competent compared to a film like Wonder Woman. 

 

Still should be good legs. 

[Porthos]

Just now, HenryK81 said:

Wait, so what were your OW #'s for CM again?

My OW?  I have long said I'm crap at predicting OW.   Was thinking for weeks around 150 to 160 until I bumped it up to 175 when I saw CM perform strongly on Fandango on Tue and Wed.

 

So with the 20.7, I'm thinking my 150-160 range is probably correct after all.  Let's say 160 since that's the number I was using.