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Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4

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23 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Last w/e US had a 3.268 multi - if the same it would hit $15.52m

The Friday increase will already be ten percentage points more than the previous Friday's increase, so the multiplier is obviously not going to be the same. Deadline might be under predicting the Friday as well. The early Friday number for last weekend was barely $9,000,000. 

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1 minute ago, TMP said:

say no more

 

Actually, i know its for jokes but imagine saying in the thread title: Shazam sucks. Wait for Endgame. I dont think we should place statements like that in thread titles.

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2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Disney’s Captain Marvel takes 5th with $14.2M, -31% in weekend 5, for a running total by end of Sunday of $375.6M.

STX’s opener The Best of Enemies is seeing $2M today, for a 3-day of $5.9M.

@Barnack Still think my 30s% drop prediction in the Wednesday thread is "living in a parallel universe" ?

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Re: CM Over WW. I think that crediting EG and IW for CM success is selling CM short. Bumps don't work past OW cause once a movie's seen it creates its own WOM. If a movie's an utter trash nobody's gonna say "this was trash but go see it cause upcoming movie XY has some tiny connection to it." they're gonna say "skip it." So CM WOM is its own and there's no doubt that it clicked with audience especially OS much more than WW and not just because of Marvel brand (or every Marvel movie would have boxoffice this big). That's why I think that WW fans should be cautious about predicting WW84's boxoffice. it could blow up enough for over 1B or even over CM but it could also have a small increase a la GOTG Vol 2 (which many of us tipped for 1B and it fell well short of). CM simply connected more with OS audience and about the same with dom one.

Edited by Valonqar
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38 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Btw, I would like to apologize to some comments I made toward @langer in the... Monday?... thread, about CM’s legs from here.

 

My argument was based on the unexamined premise that if CM received an AEG bump it would be of approximately the same magnitude as BP’s bump, but that is actually unjustified for 2 reasons:  

1) BP had already sold 650M by this weekend, vs CM’s 375M. More people having already seen it means fewer who see it for the first time in the couple weeks before Avengers out a need to catch up   

2) I thought the amount of hype for Endgame in the couple of weeks before release would be about on par with IW, but it now seems clear that is not the case.     

 

I’m on the 410-420 train for now, but you don’t have to do anything particularly unreasonable mathematically to get it over Catching Fire.

Pretty good analysis.  I'll see you at the finish line my friend!  

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40 minutes ago, JB33 said:

April in general is going to be really light until the Avengers: Endgame explosion. Shazam! will open so low that even if it holds really well the raw numbers won't be very big by the time the April 26-28 weekend rolls around.

 

It'll be interesting to see how Breakthrough opens on Easter Weekend. Could be another I Can Only Imagine.

The Breakthrough is probably going to perform pretty great. Isn't Steph Curry in it? It will play to a range of audiences. 

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4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Re: CM Over WW. I think that crediting EG and IW for CM success is selling CM short. Bumps don't work past OW cause once a movie's seen it creates its own WOM. If a movie's an utter trash nobody's gonna say "this was trash but go see it cause upcoming movie XY has some tiny connection to it." they're gonna say "skip it." So CM WOM is its own and there's no doubt that it clicked with audience especially OS much more than WW and not just because of Marvel brand (or every Marvel movie would have boxoffice this big). That's why I think that WW fans should be cautious about predicting WW84's boxoffice. it could blow up enough for over 1B or even over CM but it could also have a small increase a la GOTG Vol 2 (which many of us tipped for 1B and it fell well short of). CM simply connected more with OS audience and about the same with dom one.

The point is would Captain Marvel really have opened that big with over 150M without the connected universe? Captain Marvel would have been a hit whatever the case but i think it being part of a highly loved franchise is what sets it apart majorly from Wonder Woman.

 

And yes Wonder Woman 84 getting over a billion is more a hope for me rather than a prediction, to do that it would need to break out much more overseas than the first one and that would be hard to predict now. I do think it can gross over 400M in the US again. But all in all much will depend on how good the movie and its WOM is.

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These next few weeks will be just the calm before the storm (Endgame), kind of like the weeks before TFA's and TLJ's OW (the weeks before IW actually had some dezent-sized films).

 

Thats also a chance, of course, for the holdovers to get some good legs before they are demolished.

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3 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Did I misinterpret this?

 

Capture

Well obviously, how does one know if Captain Marvel would have not done -27/-28% instead of -30% if there was no new release ? It is a bit trivial, but less competition always mean better hold imo, it is almost impossible for it to not be the case.

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