AVENGERS: ENDGAME WEEKEND THREAD l Actuals: $357.115M | $866.526M OS, $1.223B WW l Russos true box office kings l *** NO SPOILERS - Even Tagged ***| SALE NOW LIVE: 50% Off Gold Montly, 25% Off Gold Annually

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This. Which is what? $258?

 

I just looked and adjusted Infinity War is 248 and Force Awakens is 257. What the fuck? What did I miss?

Mojo always does this, it will go back up, for whatever reason they put ticket prices for the current year lower than the previous year for awhile. So it always trends the inflation adjustments down for the year after.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I really didn't think we'd see a movie DOM reach the level of TFA hype maybe ever, but this is there. It matches up pretty well, from the insane, record-shattering presales, to the fantastic reviews topping it all off.

The feeling is exactly like TFA when it comes to pre-sales.

 

Where it actually ends up, who knows. I know I "IN'ed" on CJohn's club, but still kinda doubtful on 300. 

 

====

 

When it comes to TFA's preview record, the one thing that is giving me pause is some of my comps locally might point to a low 50s opening.

Actually, truth be told more of my comps currently point to a low 50s opening if EG sells the exact same number of tickets locally as IW did in its last three days (locally it's been more or less matching IW [when the same sources of tracking info are used] for a few days now).

 

The two comps that don't?  IW and BP.

 

I haven't done tonight's check, obv, but if EG sold the exact same amount of tickets locally as IW did on Tue, Wed, and through the end of my tracking on Thr:

 

2.5336x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.                       [63.85m]
1.5597x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [60.83m]

4.4586x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp at stop of tracking.            [51.27m]
3.2967x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.                    [50.44m]
3.5467x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                                     [50.01m]
2.5245x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.                          [46.96m]

(The CM comp is under a different system as I have more sources of tracking info for it - and I haven't gamed out a scenario for it)

((I also have a Venom comp, but that's more complicated as it has one extra source of tracking info but not the two I had for CM))

 

I've mentioned that the DP2 comp should pretty much be ignored since it over-performed here and didn't have 3D sales. 

 

So there are two broad possible worlds: IW and BP are the indicators or those three 50m movies are. I personally think the insane amount of showings nationwide point to World One.  However, a case might be able to be made that the growth of pre-sales points to World Two.

 

Of course, if it sells much more than IW did over the last three days, the chances of TFA going down increase dramatically.

 

---

 

When it comes right down to it, it's probably more: Projections break down at the extremes.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Ethan Hunt]

There has been a change in the winds

 

 

 

I read the David Ehrlich tweet 

 

 

 

I am now... Excited for Avengers Endgame

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Going by tickets TFA sold almost 1mil more than IW. The adjuster isn't for inflation rate it's just for ticket prices.

Okay. In that case, that's the true goal. Be the #1 ticket seller OW DOM. After that, it's all gravy.

[Sam]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

There has been a change in the winds

 

 

 

I read the David Ehrlich tweet 

 

 

 

I am now... Excited for Avengers Endgame

Truly a millennials.

 

Edit: wait, you’re even younger than a millennials. Woo boy.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Sam

[MattW]

It's close to TFA's level but I still don't think it's quite there.  TFA did $565m in the first 10 days adjusting to 2018.

A 300m opening for Endgame with a slightly better 2nd weekend hold than IW gets it to about $535m after 10 days.

Edited April 24, 2019 by MattW

[TwoMisfits]

57 minutes ago, Menor said:

That article has no analysis lol, it just uses the arbitrary claim that there's a hard cap on weekends which doesn't make much sense to me

There is a hard cap...just one much higher than we've seen...BUT...

 

I expected Endgame to get 75-80% penetration at smaller theaters (12-14s and below)...right now, in my entire metro, it's running about 55%-60% for the weekend (FSS)...at that kinda penetration, you are gonna have theaters with lots of empty seats at all their other screens (b/c holdovers will sell, but not come close to selling out), so you are talking about a cap more in line with total box office that has come before (than what is actually possible)...

 

It's gonna make $300M an uphill climb.  Add in that there's no Moviepass to fill the worst seats in the house, and you may have screens go with some extra single and front row seats at every showing...and it's gonna be tough (but not impossible) for $300M just b/c of theater sets and realities...

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

There is a hard cap...just one much higher than we've seen...BUT...

 

I expected Endgame to get 75-80% penetration at smaller theaters (12-14s and below)...right now, in my entire metro, it's running about 55%-60% for the weekend (FSS)...at that kinda penetration, you are gonna have theaters with lots of empty seats at all their other screens (b/c holdovers will sell, but not come close to selling out), so you are talking about a cap more in line with total box office that has come before (than what is actually possible)...

 

It's gonna make $300M an uphill climb.  Add in that there's no Moviepass to fill the worst seats in the house, and you may have screens go with some extra single and front row seats at every showing...and it's gonna be tough (but not impossible) for $300M just b/c of theater sets and realities...

 

No your argument makes sense (not sure if I agree, but it's thought out). I was talking about the article which just arbitrarily picked the highest grossing weekends and claimed they were the single weekend cap.

[MrGlass2]

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

It all led up to this finale of epic proportions.

 

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

These are the characters they grew up with. The ones they experienced all of their highs and lows with. For them, this is their Deathly Hallows 2. This is their Return of the King. This is their finale.

Not a finale.

[rerga]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

It's close to TFA's level but I still don't think it's quite there.  TFA did $565m in the first 10 days adjusting to 2018.

A 300m opening for Endgame with a slightly better 2nd weekend hold than IW gets it to about $535m after 10 days.

Sure, but don't forget it was Christmas.

 

Since then, every SW has dropped (Solo, TLJ and Solo) whereas this is rising from IW. Furthermore, the MCU has been consistent quality and performance wise...

[Jonwo]

I'm curious to see what Marvel has planned, I imagine we won't have a new Avengers movie for a while, probably 2023 or 2024 at the earliest. 

[B J]

Here in Anchorage It is easily outpacing TFA's (was record holder by a mile) final pre-sales tally with two more days of pre-sales and showings  still being added. Pre-sales record holder before TFA was Potter7.2 (was more than doubled by TFA).  I thought TFA was untouchable for years to come, EG will crush the record.

 

[Ozymandias]

with all 6 stones i can simply snap my fingers and crush all BO records

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I'm curious to see what Marvel has planned, I imagine we won't have a new Avengers movie for a while, probably 2023 or 2024 at the earliest. 

Hard to say I mean there will be 7-8 MCU movies before the next Avengers even if it's in 2022. And FFH is already upping the ante for expanding the universe from the trailer. The scale isn't increasing sure but the depth is. 

[FlashMaster659]

China midnight ¥185m+ according to Olive

[JB33]

Yeah we definitely don't need another Avengers film for another 5 years or so. I mean, we will have gotten the two biggest ones in back to back years so...

 

Spend the next several years building up the next grand saga with new characters, settings and storylines and flesh out the newer but already established characters like Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Captain Marvel etc. Also, with the Infinity Saga being over, there's a lot of blank slate to seriously build up Spidey's world, which we know is massive. Bring me that Sinister Six!!!

[Mulder]

We don't need another Avengers movie for a while. Wait 5-10 years at least, make them feel special again.

[JB33]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

China midnight ¥185m+ according to Olive

So about $27.5M. What's the record in China?

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, JB33 said:

Yeah we definitely don't need another Avengers film for another 5 years or so. I mean, we will have gotten the two biggest ones in back to back years so...

 

Spend the next several years building up the next grand saga with new characters, settings and storylines and flesh out the newer but already established characters like Doctor Strange, Black Panther, Captain Marvel etc. Also, with the Infinity Saga being over, there's a lot of blank slate to seriously build up Spidey's world, which we know is massive. Bring me that Sinister Six!!!

The issue with Spider-man hasn't changed, Sony still owns basically everything about the character. We get X-men and F4 and their related stuff. Maybe Disney can bend Paramount over and get Solo rights back for Hulk and Namor. 

[Mulder]

Just now, JB33 said:

So about $27.5M. What's the record in China?

Way below that. 😄