Weekend Thread: Endgame 40.6M Friday, 61-62.5m Sat (per Asgard p.49)

[KJsooner]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This will *barely* have a top 12 Saturday, talk about a letdown 

 

The ‘concern trolls’ aren’t going to be happy!

[Nakamura]

Any update for saturday?

[Sam]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This will *barely* have a top 12 Saturday, talk about a letdown 

Gonna need 61.3M to kick CA3’s ass out of Top 10 domestic Saturday. I’m all for that. 

 

MCU is holding 6 spots out of that Top 10. Gonna be down to 4/10 by end of this year with Lion King and SW9 I guess.

[FlashMaster659]

7 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Any update for saturday?

Charlie said 61-62

[CloneWars]

Looks like it's going to be very close to the 2nd weekend record. Not really a surprise. I think a big drop was to be expected after the monster OW. I expect the drops to stabilize after this weekend. Comparing this to TFA, you realize how huge SW was in 2015. I think TFA's OW could have potentially reached an OW similar to EG,maybe $320M had it opened in May. The whole holidays thing caused it's gross to be spread out, plus, lots of movies get released over the holidays, so it doesn't have as much screens to play on. For those wondering how in the world the hype for this was so much bigger than SW, I don't think it was that much bigger, but conditions allowed EG to open much, much higher.

Edited May 5, 2019 by CloneWars

[Nakamura]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Charlie said 61-62

He can see the data? 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Friday acted like a CBM opening Friday in hourlies. If Saturday act like Opening Week Saturday, Saturday may go higher.

 

However this 61-62 is assuming it will be as frontloaded as 2nd Saturday relatively to 2nd Friday. So let's see.

[Nero]

6 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Looks like it's going to be very close to the 2nd weekend record. Not really a surprise. I think a big drop was to be expected after the monster OW. I expect the drops to stabilize after this weekend. Comparing this to TFA, you realize how huge SW was in 2015. I think TFA's OW could have potentially reached an OW similar to EG,maybe $320M had it opened in May. The whole holidays thing caused it's gross to be spread out, plus, lots of movies get released over the holidays, so it doesn't have as much screens to play on. For those wondering how in the world the hype for this was so much bigger than SW, I don't think it was that much bigger, but conditions allowed EG to open much, much higher.

Cmon now Endgame easily has more hype than Star Wars TFA.. It made 1.2B on OW no Star Wars movie will achieve anything near it.... 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Looks like it's going to be very close to the 2nd weekend record. Not really a surprise. I think a big drop was to be expected after the monster OW. I expect the drops to stabilize after this weekend. Comparing this to TFA, you realize how huge SW was in 2015. I think TFA's OW could have potentially reached an OW similar to EG,maybe $320M had it opened in May. The whole holidays thing caused it's gross to be spread out, plus, lots of movies get released over the holidays, so it doesn't have as much screens to play on. For those wondering how in the world the hype for this was so much bigger than SW, I don't think it was that much bigger, but conditions allowed EG to open much, much higher.

Yeah the full extent of TFA hype was shown in its final gross, less so in its OW. Obviously this is Dom only, Endgame is far more hyped overall

Edited May 5, 2019 by Menor

[CloneWars]

Just now, Nero said:

Cmon now Endgame easily has more hype than Star Wars TFA.. It made 1.2B on OW no Star Wars movie will achieve anything near it.... 

I'm referring to Domestic hype.

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Friday acted like a CBM opening Friday in hourlies. If Saturday act like Opening Week Saturday, Saturday may go higher.

 

However this 61-62 is assuming it will be as frontloaded as 2nd Saturday relatively to 2nd Friday. So let's see.

 

If I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying if it acts like a normal CBM 1st Saturday, then the numbers could go higher, but if it acts that a CBM 2nd Saturday, it'll be 61-62. Does that mean that 2nd Saturdays are more frontloaded? That can't be right. What am I missing here?

Also, thanks as always for the numbers and analysis.

[Sam]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Friday acted like a CBM opening Friday in hourlies. If Saturday act like Opening Week Saturday, Saturday may go higher.

 

However this 61-62 is assuming it will be as frontloaded as 2nd Saturday relatively to 2nd Friday. So let's see.

I assumed you extrapolated EG 2nd Friday based on its opening Friday instead of normal CBM Fridays, thus the overshooting? Would make sense since EG opening Friday was the most impressive day of that weekend, but also the most unlike-Marvel: burned 60M in previews but grossing almost $100M Friday is ridiculous. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

If I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying if it acts like a normal CBM 1st Saturday, then the numbers could go higher, but if it acts that a CBM 2nd Saturday, it'll be 61-62. Does that mean that 2nd Saturdays are more frontloaded? That can't be right. What am I missing here?

Also, thanks as always for the numbers and analysis. 

Am a bit confused by this as well, why wouldn't the opening Saturday be more presale heavy?

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Sam said:

I assumed you extrapolated EG 2nd Friday based on its opening Friday instead of normal CBM Fridays, thus the overshooting? Would make sense since EG opening Friday was the most impressive day of that weekend, but also the most unlike-Marvel: burned 60M in previews but grossing almost $100M Friday is ridiculous. 

Naa, Usually a CBM at 7PM on 2nd Friday is around 15% less frontloaded as 1st Friday is inflated by higher pre-sales. In case of EG, that was just 6% less from 1st Friday.

 

1st Saturday relatively to 1st Friday is about as frontloaded. While 2nd Saturday is around 15% more frontloaded than 2nd Friday as 2nd Saturday has higher pre-sales. I am expecting EG to follow the latter.

[lilmac]

It’s going to fall short of TFA but get close.  $925m-ish. 

[FlashMaster659]

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Sam]

6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Any timely comparative data from either last week or yesterday? 

 

East Coast is done. All up to West Coast now. About 1900+ locations left, with 50M already in the bag, I think it’s still looking good for 60M+

 

Edit: saw your edited post. Yeah, base of last week numbers, 60M+ looking good 

Edited May 5, 2019 by Sam

[La Binoche]

Charlize Theron is true box office poison. Good actress, though! 

[keysersoze123]

not sure how we can extrapolate. All major megaplexes should report to comscore in realtime. All the drive-ins or smaller indie houses probably will not. @RtheEnd should know about this but not sure he would want to provide this information 🙂 I will stick with 60m saturday and 47m sunday.

[KJsooner]

8 minutes ago, Sam said:

Any timely comparative data from either last week or yesterday? 

 

East Coast is done. All up to West Coast now. About 1900+ locations left, with 50M already in the bag, I think it’s still looking good for 60M+

 

Edit: saw your edited post. Yeah, base of last week numbers, 60M+ looking good 

 

I believe it comes in just under that. Like say 59 million. GSW were on tonight I wonder if that will affect west coast numbers.