Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[JimiQ]

Well acording to MagnarTheGreat’s table, eg is behaving a lot like ragnarok and that one didn’t have summer days. Multi 2.57 would mean 917. So 875-900 should happen

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

MCU franchise sequel (domestic)	Day 10 Cume Multiplier	Added B/ Days 10-17	Day 17 Cume Multiplier	Added After Day 17	Final Multiplier	90% of Gross On Day	Release Month
Avengers: Endgame*	1.74	0.29	2.03	TBD	TBD	TBD	Apr.
Ant-Man and the Wasp	1.76	0.42	2.18	0.68	2.86	31	Jul.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier	1.67	0.44	2.11	0.62	2.73	30	Apr.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	1.70	0.36	2.06	0.60	2.66	30	May
Avengers: Infinity War	1.76	0.37	2.13	0.51	2.63	30	Apr.
Thor: Ragnarok	1.73	0.29	2.01	0.55	2.57	29	Nov.
Iron Man 2	1.65	0.31	1.96	0.48	2.44	27	May
Thor: The Dark World	1.69	0.27	1.96	0.45	2.41	24	Nov.
Avengers: Age of Ultron	1.64	0.31	1.95	0.45	2.40	26	May
Iron Man 3	1.64	0.30	1.94	0.41	2.35	25	May
Captain America: Civil War	1.65	0.29	1.94	0.34	2.28	23	May
average	1.69	0.33	2.02	0.51	2.53	28
median	1.69	0.32	2.01	0.49	2.50	28
* Day 17 numbers are not final / based on estimates

 

See also: Comparisons of MCU 3rd/2nd weekend drops

As I said few days back, Iron Man 3 is very good comp from 2nd weekend dailies. 0.41 will add to $870mn Approx, that's where I have the film.

 

[cdsacken]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

As I said few days back, Iron Man 3 is very good comp from 2nd weekend dailies. 0.41 will add to $870mn Approx, that's where I have the film.

 

Did u factor in a small bump around weekend 10-12 for FFH?

[RamblinRed]

AE's Sunday could be slightly over estimated.

With the longer runtime I expect it to have a drop slightly larger than IW, just like last weekend.

I'm thinking 30%. But actuals could be slightly higher other days so I think its final number is within 100K of the estimate.

 

I think it will squeak by Avatar WW primarily on Intl. As Baumer said, probably another 130-135M domestic. I think it will fall a little behind IW's weekdays this week, but outgross it next weekend.

 

Pika I bet goes down close to a 1M with actuals. They are being way too generous with a sub 20% Sunday drop. They just wanted to be able to say 58.

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Us inching toward that Get Out DOM total. It's going to pass it, no?

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

AE's Sunday could be slightly over estimated.

With the longer runtime I expect it to have a drop slightly larger than IW, just like last weekend.

I'm thinking 30%. But actuals could be slightly higher other days so I think its final number is within 100K of the estimate.

 

I think it will squeak by Avatar WW primarily on Intl. As Baumer said, probably another 130-135M domestic. I think it will fall a little behind IW's weekdays this week, but outgross it next weekend.

 

Pika I bet goes down close to a 1M with actuals. They are being way too generous with a sub 20% Sunday drop. They just wanted to be able to say 58.

 

 

EG is a very conservative estimate not an aggressive one.

[TalismanRing]

25 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

[Krissykins]

Maybe Endgame will have a sub 55% drop next weekend. 

 

Solid for Pikachu

 

STX are bomb after bomb just now. 

 

The Intruder surprisingly held just as well as Long Shot, despite a gigantic difference on RT lol. 

 

Solid for The Hustle, which is probably being underestimated. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Krissykins

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

AE's Sunday could be slightly over estimated.

With the longer runtime I expect it to have a drop slightly larger than IW, just like last weekend.

I'm thinking 30%. But actuals could be slightly higher other days so I think its final number is within 100K of the estimate.

 

I think it will squeak by Avatar WW primarily on Intl. As Baumer said, probably another 130-135M domestic. I think it will fall a little behind IW's weekdays this week, but outgross it next weekend.

 

Pika I bet goes down close to a 1M with actuals. They are being way too generous with a sub 20% Sunday drop. They just wanted to be able to say 58.

 

 

Hope I'm wrong but I agree regarding Pika. Thinking closer to 56 with actuals. I think the EG numbers are legit though. Actually thinking it'll come in maybe at 64.

[Zakiyyah6]

I see Endgame going down from Estimates. DP as well. DP was probably my most over predicted movie this year which is fine. You win some, you lose some. Don't get why Endgame would have a better Sunday Mother's Day drop than Infinity War. It didn't last weekend. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[Avatree]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Us inching toward that Get Out DOM total. It's going to pass it, no?

another $1.6million after a $249k weekend is asking for too much.

[SweeneySwift]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Us inching toward that Get Out DOM total. It's going to pass it, no?

Genuinely didn't know it was still playing

[Avatree]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Maybe Endgame will have a sub 55% drop next weekend. 

 

Solid for Pikachu (domestically, overseas looks really poor). 

 

STX are bomb after bomb just now. 

 

The Intruder surprisingly held just as well as Long Shot, despite a gigantic difference on RT lol. 

 

Solid for The Hustle, which is probably being underestimated. 

what is the OS number for pikachu? the 43m on mojo is from friday not weekend

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Avatree

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Maybe Endgame will have a sub 55% drop next weekend. 

 

Solid for Pikachu (domestically, overseas looks really poor). 

 

STX are bomb after bomb just now. 

 

The Intruder surprisingly held just as well as Long Shot, despite a gigantic difference on RT lol. 

 

Solid for The Hustle, which is probably being underestimated. 

A 20% jump from Saturday to Sunday is unlikely to be an underestimate:)...

[ScareLol]

 

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Maybe Endgame will have a sub 55% drop next weekend. 

 

Solid for Pikachu (domestically, overseas looks really poor). 

 

STX are bomb after bomb just now. 

 

The Intruder surprisingly held just as well as Long Shot, despite a gigantic difference on RT lol. 

 

Solid for The Hustle, which is probably being underestimated. 

50% imo for next weekend

[baumer]

29 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Pokémon is overestimated and endgame underestimated. Endgame worldwide at 2.490 million with actuals.

I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you on that one. Why do you think end game is under estimated?

[Minnale101]

Just now, ScareLol said:

 

More than the 160 million that was predicted 

[svetlana99]

35 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Looks like Black Panther wasn’t the top grossing superhero-film for long.

Considering people thought 300 million domestic was a reach before Black Panther released, does it really matter? It shattered every expectation and then some. Nothing takes away from the incredible box office run of that film. As a standalone original entry nonetheless which makes it even more remarkable.

 

 

 

Decent hold for Endgame this weekend. If that Sunday hold for Pikachu transpires, solid outing for it as well.

Edited May 12, 2019 by svetlana99

[cdsacken]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I see Endgame going down from Estimates. DP as well. DP was probably my most over predicted movie this year which is fine. You win some, you lose some. Don't get why Endgame would have a better Sunday Mother's Day drop than Infinity War. It didn't last weekend. 

Guess we'll see. A 29% drop isn't a soft one. I disagree.