Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[Ryan Reynolds]

So AEG passing Avatar WW record is under 50% now without a major re-release?

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Before today, Fandango saw King of the Monsters advance ticket sales ahead of Kong: Skull Island.

Ahead of a 61M opener from over 25 months ago, gosh Deadline, what a data point 🙄

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That will mean 24-30mn weekend. Ugh.

 

Is it too late to start a Rocketman OW > Dark Pheonix OW club?

[Minnale101]

If you told me May 1st 

 

that after endgame gigantic opening week it wouldn’t pass avatar 

 

both detective Pikachu and Godzilla doing under 450 million WW

 

aladdin doing 800 + million 

 

I would think you were drunk 

 

June 1st all this will happen 

 

the unpredictability of box office is so addicting I love this hobby because 90% time everyone is wrong 😂

Edited June 1, 2019 by Minnale101

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, justvision said:

I actually googled "Ghidoomsdorah", and the almighty Google can find only one reference. Where did it bring me? Back to your post.

Google could not live with their own failure. Where did that bring them? Back to me.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That will mean 24-30mn weekend. Ugh.

 

Like I said, that number is almost entirely out of my ass.  I'm not applying any sort of real rigor to it.

 

But, well, 606/1160 = .5224.  .5224 x 6.3 = 3.3m.

 

===

 

All sorts of faulty logic in the above, really.  Honestly I'm not sure what to expect for Dark P.  But I'll tell you this.  When I did a quick count a few days ago of seats sold in Sacto, the comps against CBMs were ugh-ly:

 

On 5/26/2019 at 12:36 PM, Porthos said:

Didn't keep the quick look as a spreadsheet so I can't go down and dirty on adj's or anything like that.  But as of right now, Dark Phoenix has sold 457 tickets region wide.

 

At T-11 (Sat Night checks) I had:

May Movies:

KotM at       762 seats sold.

Aladdin at   901 seats sold. (3.55m)

Pika Pika at 618 seats sold. (4.21m - matinee and few PLF)

 

Other comps:

FB2 at        1772 seats sold. (2.35m - FB2 over-performed in Sacto)

JW:FK at     1606 seats sold. (4.35m)

Solo at       3404 seats sold. (1.89m - SW is notoriously pre-sale heavy)

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at       18601 seats sold. (1.47m)

CM at        4085 seats sold. (2.32m)

DP2 at       2808 seats sold. (3.02m - DP2 did not have 3D)

IW at         7873 seats sold. (2.26m)

 

Everything FB2 and before is a little off due to extra sources of tracking, but that'd just lower the comp, not raise it, as there were a handful of tickets sold at the theater that now has reserved seating.

 

=====

 

Just eyeballing it, the Fan Event showings locally are not doing well.  At all.  The TrueIMAX theater in town has one and it's sold 34/376 tickets (not including wheel chair assist). The other two ONFEs in the region have sold 4 (out of 199) and 19 (out of 207) tickets respectively.

 

As for regular showings, one at Century Arden is doing very well as is another at Century Blue Oaks.  But aside from that it's scattered sales everywhere else.

===

 

Now that's just one day.  And without any sort of adj's for different tracking sources.  For all I know it's gained ground in the five days or so.  

 

But, gotta tell ya, I ain't hopeful right now. 

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So AEG passing Avatar WW record is under 50% now without a major re-release?

Under 10% tbh. 

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, TMP said:

It’s tracking terribly, and a lot of China OW predictions ended up being way too high, so I can’t see it doing better by “quite a margin”

That's more to the fact, that Shazam was low not DP will do great. 

 

Edit:

Alright, checked Chinese pre-sales. They are awful. So yeah, not by a margin, but shall beat Shazam still.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Cappoedameron]

I'd cast Tom Holland as Red, I know big controversial right there. But it's a way to give us Spideypool.

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[danhtruong5]

4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So AEG passing Avatar WW record is under 50% now without a major re-release?

I only care if it can pass $2.750B or not

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Not that big a force overseas...?! The Force Awakens made more than $1 billion overseas! If you want to say, "a bigger domestic draw than international, compared to other franchises," ok, but words matter, Star Wars is HUGE everywhere. It's just not as huge as some other properties in random non-English speaking countries. 

TLJ made about 700 OS, TROS could fall. It’s not small, but it’s not HUGE.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So AEG passing Avatar WW record is under 50% now without a major re-release?

We need to see the numbers first. The weekdays OS-C were great, so I think that as long as it manages to hold close to Endgame as it gets closer, it will end up happening without a re-release. With Gojira and DP going DOA, it could use some expansion tho.

 

We are in a sort of odd situation with Gojira. It’s not usual for a wide release to flop this hard, and then there is DP next week. 

[Minnale101]

Godzilla kotm will have lower domestic total than 1998 Godzilla without inflation 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Google could not live with their own failure. Where did that bring them? Back to me.

FWIW, Google also came to you.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

I only care if it can pass $2.750B or not

That is happening. I’m pretty sure that @Charlie Jatinder thinks $2.8B is done, but I’m personally not so sure.

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So AEG passing Avatar WW record is under 50% now without a major re-release?

Speaking of this - what did Avatar do on its re-release internationally? I know it's listed on BOM as 10M DOM.

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

We need to see the numbers first. The weekdays OS-C were great, so I think that as long as it manages to hold close to Endgame as it gets closer, it will end up happening without a re-release. With Gojira and DP going DOA, it could use some expansion tho.

 

We are in a sort of odd situation with Gojira. It’s not usual for a wide release to flop this hard, and then there is DP next week. 

unless it will blow away the record i think it is over, Disney is not going to push over the finish-line to record by a million or two, when it will beat their now record Avatar, what is the point

[Sam]

For a touted big comic event like Dark Phoenix, the movie just seems so small scale from the looks of trailers (that I can’t escape seeing at theaters)

 

X-Men is notoriously front-loaded, excluding Deadpool, I don’t think any X-movies had legs going much past 2.6x since the original X-Men (2000). So if DP open to something like 40-50m, it’s gonna be ugly.

[justvision]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

FWIW, Google also came to you.

Well, that is the only reference, so Google bring back to his post.

[Legion Again]

Just realized I joined like 15 months ago. 320 posts a month, >10 a day.   

 

Whoops.        

 

But the BP-FFH 1 franchise, 6 movies, 9B BO, 18 month corridor is simply historic, maybe I can regain some restraint once it passes.