Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[CJohn]

My mid 40s OW prediction for Godzilla is coming true. Only the internet geeks wanna see a parade of monsters fighting each other.

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Pikachu looks DOA, it’s hard to build on a film that struggles to break even and flopped in core markets (Japan, China)

Pikachu will make a profit (should be able to cover distribution fees with ancillaries also) and didn't flop in core markets, especially not those two lol. 90 mil in China is good and 30 mil in Japan is a very, very good gross for a western adaptation. There is potential for growth in both markets considering the movie was very leggy in both of them (meaning good legs).

 

Also, Godzilla can recover if GvK (the most important movie in the franchise right now) delivers. They fucked up with Godzilla 2014, they can't fuck up with this.

[Valonqar]

42 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Weaker Aladdin hold than I was expecting tbh.

 

WB losing money on another tent pole this year... this and Pokémon were supposed to be big franchise starters.

Aladdin hold will be decided today cause it's a Saturday player. I expect a great rebound, however, considering that new movies are neither a direct competition nor they are breaking out. it also lost some lucrative screens to Zilla if I'm not mistaken so somewhat harder Friday drop was in play. 

Edited June 1, 2019 by Valonqar

[syntaxerror]

2019 obviously a massive a year for Disney, but I’m more interested in what comes after. 2020 will be weak relative to past years (though it’ll still have Milan, Pixar, Disney Animation, 2xMarvel) considering it is a post-Avengers, post-SW transition, but that makes it all the more exciting. Really want to see what they have up their sleeve, especially when they’ll have to launch some new franchises. With Fox they need to at least up their output to WB/ Universal levels of ~18 films a year.

[Brinatico]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

WB has had the shittiest luck this year, despite their slate being pretty cool. Lego 2 lost them money, Shazam! and Pikachu will be just by an inch money makers and Godzilla has 400M WW in peril. It: Chapter 2 and Joker will surely turn things around, and I hope Annabelle 3 does good as well, but....... yeah, not a great year for WB so far, sadly.

 

Meanwhile, fucking Disney laughs at everybody who made fun of them for the bombages of Solo, A Wrinkle In Time and Nutcracker + the underperformances of Mary Poppins, Dumbo and possibly Maleficent, because Aladdin blew away expectations, Captain Marvel hit the high end of expectations, Endgame might become the highest grossing film of all time (or miss that by a minuscule margin), and Toy Story, Lion King, Frozen and Star Wars will all be huge as well. And the Fox movies may do decently for what their worth. When I looked at their 2019 slate, it hit me that they had all of their flagship franchises opening: Avengers for Marvel, Star Wars for Lucasfilm, X-Men for Fox, Toy Story for Pixar, Frozen for WDAS and Lion King for Disney proper. They really went out of their way to overbook 2019, and instead of backfiring and blowing up in their face, they're gonna spunk all over the previous studio yearly record..... which they held, btw. Sometimes the world can be a bitch.

If you see every studio slate, you know why Disney need overpay FOX badly. 

The need to add properties, because in 2 years the will be dry.

Is no the case for WB, who have the most extensive library of all Hollywood, but the problem with these is, they need to make better movies.

 

 

[syntaxerror]

13 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

If you see every studio slate, you know why Disney need overpay FOX badly. 

The need to add properties, because in 2 years the will be dry.

Is no the case for WB, who have the most extensive library of all Hollywood, but the problem with these is, they need to make better movies.

 

 

It stuns me how much better WB is at licensing IP from third parties that other companies. Universal, Sony, Paramount (all in need of more franchises) should all have been in play for stuff like Pikachu, Barbie etc. and yet they all ended up falling to WB.

 

WB’s problem tho IMO is 1) quality and 2) too much of their stuff is distribution only. Disney succeeds in part because most of their releases are in-house. Makes it much easier to monetize from merchandise and cross-platform synergies.

Edited June 1, 2019 by syntaxerror

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

Is no the case for WB, who have the most extensive library of all Hollywood, but the problem with these is, they need to make better movies.

 

Shazam and LEGO 2 both had critical acclaim and both ended up under-performing. 

[The Futurist]

Disney buying Marvel was the deal of the decade.

[YM!]

18 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Mario

Illumination.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

If you see every studio slate, you know why Disney need overpay FOX badly. 

The need to add properties, because in 2 years the will be dry.

Is no the case for WB, who have the most extensive library of all Hollywood, but the problem with these is, they need to make better movies.

 

 

Dry is a pretty relative term given stuff like Guardians, Black Panther, Strange, Captain Marvel have one or two movie in their trilogies remaining. These will not make Avengers numbers but will all make huge money DOM/OS/WW. Strange especially will get a huge boost.

 

Not to mention, Pixar is doing fine with original properties and sequels to said properties. WDAS also doing well. 

 

They haven't even rolled out their new SW trilogy either. Which has huge potential.

 

And, still quite a few live action remakes of beloved animated flicks out there too. 

 

Like you said, now they have FF, X-Men and Avatar too. But, even before that, they were looking pretty great.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Oh, yeah, Disney has Indy too.

[THUNDER BIRD]

Still think Godzilla meeting with Kong will have better appeal than Godzilla having a throwdown with few unknown (mostly) monsters. 

 

Although KG is Godzilla's biggest rival but in terms of mainstream media, it and others were basically new. Godzilla & Kong will get better awareness.

[Brinatico]

8 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

It stuns me how much better WB is at licensing IP from third parties that other companies. Universal, Sony, Paramount (all in need of more franchises) should all have been in play for stuff like Pikachu, Barbie etc. and yet they all knew falling to WB.

 

WB’s probably tho IMO is 1) quality and 2) too much of their stuff is distribution only. Disney succeeds it part because most of their releases are in-house. Makes it much easier to monetize from merchandise and cross-platform synergies.

Disney Boxoffice overperform is in the last 3-4 years. 

Before was a normal one. The Marvel, Pixar and Star wars franchise help building the empire. 

But all get to a final unless we see the remake over and over again.

Anyway Disney is the king of the Boxoffice right now. End

Edited June 1, 2019 by Brinatico

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

Still think Godzilla meeting with Kong will have better appeal than Godzilla having a throwdown with few unknown (mostly) monsters. 

 

Although KG is Godzilla's biggest rival but in terms of mainstream media, it and others were basically new. Godzilla & Kong will get better awareness.

I couldn't agree more. My only fear is that they clutter that one with too many other monsters. GA wants Kong v. Godzilla. Everyone and I mean everyone knows those two. The others... Yeah, I like them. Some even great. But, come on, all you really need is pulp fantasy yarn that pops with those two rumbling in the most epic way put to screen.

[filmlover]

Pretty rough for Godzilla, no way around it. And here I thought my $63M prediction seemed reasonable. I feel like the 5 year gap between movies ended up hurting it more than the rather eh response to the first did tbh. That's just too long to make a sequel to anything in this day and age unless you're a real pop culture institution (ala Star Wars, the Disney/Pixar animated sequels). The weak reviews didn't help either.

 

Rather solid numbers for Rocketman, if a bit on the lower end of expectations. It should manage solid legs to $75-80M total (and will be profitable thanks to the budget being only $40M), but it's pretty clear that Bohemian Rhapsody's massive overperformance was more of an anomaly than a rule for musician biopics. Meanwhile, Ma is looking at pretty good numbers and is already in the black after its first day. Go Octavia! And Aladdin is looking at a fine drop considering it's coming off of a 4-day holiday opening.

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 Godzilla is bombing here and is gonna open well below the already weak opening of G14. Probably around half of what Kong did 2 years ago.

 

And don't get me started on Rocketman HOLY FUCKING SHIT what a disaster. Aladdin is easily gonna win. Hell, Pets special shows today might be 2nd for the entire weekend lmao.

[Maximum Avery]

29 minutes ago, CJohn said:

My mid 40s OW prediction for Godzilla is coming true. Only the internet geeks wanna see a parade of monsters fighting each other.

But i want to see that on a big screen too!! Like specifically THAT...biggest  screen possible! Do i need to see saoirse and timmothy chalamet walking on a sidewalk in chicago there for 10 bucks tho? Big screen sets a certain mood i admit(same for all movies tho with same ticket price), but between high ticket prices and sometimes pretentious distractions like arthouse cinema, all the while the world is slowly burning, for me its easier to criticize _them_, than pure escapism like godzilla or SH genre..

 but in the end its essentially the same so both sides are like little caged lab rats with a ribbon..

Days of pretentios filmloving elistists are over!! XD Everyone has access to everything.. no more gatekeeping..Why and how that happened? Internet!

..because we know what you are and how you operate...there is nowhere to hide now when there are 7 kinds of subspecies of humans all revealed on social media.. what? You going to invent warm water? Let go of that anchor of ego, accept spectacle is spectacle and try to enjoy it.. if not try to understand those people you see running around on basketball courts, beaches, schools or malls really prefer big epic distractions than small pretentious ones .. thats how it is..

 

TTVOMJ

Edited June 1, 2019 by Maximum Avery
Typos

[excel1]

Godzilla was one of those on-the-bubble films that needed good reviews to convince people to see it; didn't happen so oh well

[excel1]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That's the same release date which has seen multiple movies have huge BO, many potter films, New Moon, Catching Fire etc. Justice League and Fantastic beasts were not good enough to make bank. Release date is not the problem.

 

IT broke out Yuge in September. We have had breakouts almost every month. So release date is not a problem unless you are releasing around a uber event like endgame.

Twilight would have exploded anywhere

 

8 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I blame WB for atrocious release strategy. You need to take care of your resources, absolutely ridiculous.

Yes

9 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

New Moon, Deathly Hallows 1, Breaking Dawn 1, and Breaking Dawn 2. Boom!

Twilight and legit Potter aren't fair comparisons and you don't know how much better they may have done in summer

9 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

That's more to do with the quality of the films being released there than anything. You put a film people want to actually see on that date like WW84 or Aquaman 2 it'll do well.

thats only part of the equation though. Shazam was good 

[syntaxerror]

14 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Disney buying Marvel was the deal of the decade.

Masterstroke, but I think the Fox deal has even more potential. Think of all the unmined IP, existing franchises (some of which are in need of a reboot but if anyone knows how to do that well it’s Disney). And then the fact that it adds a silo that Disney has been lacking for ages: more adult content, R-rates movies, horror genre etc. In the last few years horror have been big winners for Universal and WB. Fox has expertise in that area and could play that role for Disney, making it a true 4-quadrant company. Alan Horn and co seem to have the same idea as they’ve shopped away several of Fox’s in-development films to prioritize rated-R fare. Not to mention, some franchises/third parties may be more inclined to hop on the Fox ship than they would traditional Disney. Disney can then be more competitive on bidding for projects outside their in-house studios.

Edited June 1, 2019 by syntaxerror