SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[KJsooner]

26 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Maybe my math is off but I don’t think 1 billion is in any way guaranteed, think some have been misled by the China number which admittedly is big but is not indicative of other OS markets. DOM looks to be flat imho. If so will have to pull 480 OS - China and I dont think that’s assured.

Lmao 🤣 

[Jim Shorts]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

Homecoming made 154 mill after 6 days.  Pretty sure this is going to be ahead of that.  No reason to think it won't get over 300 mill and come close to or exceed a billion.  Not every MCU film has to shatter the gross of the last film.  I think some of you have gotten greedy and expect too much now.  The MCU universe is the only universe that seems to be making bank with every film they release.  The panic and misinformed vitriol here is really strange.  

 

Just doing a quick check in the Summer game and the average prediction for FFH on the first page of predictions is about 340 million.  That looks to be a good number to shoot for.  So it's kind of doing what people thought it would...to quote Dennis Green...." FFH is who we thought it was!"

 

Not sure what you guys were expecting but I think a lot of you went cockoo for cocoa puffs when Charlie said it would do 50 million at 7AM PST of OD.

I love your old man wisdom. 

[Eric Prime]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movies always drop hard on the 4th. This would be different because?

Not really. 

 

This is the 4th last year

Rank*	Title	Monday 7/2	Tuesday 7/3	Wednesday 7/4	Thursday 7/5
1	JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM Universal 4,485	$8,580,225 -56.5% / $1,913 $274,279,755 / 11	$11,891,170 +38.6% / $2,651 $286,170,925 / 12	$11,501,395 -3.3% / $2,564 $297,672,320 / 13	$7,085,345 -38.4% / $1,580 $304,757,665 / 14
2	INCREDIBLES 2 Buena Vista 4,410	$7,664,705 -49.2% / $1,738 $448,265,980 / 18	$10,278,385 +34.1% / $2,331 $458,544,365 / 19	$9,646,015 -6.2% / $2,187 $468,190,380 / 20	$7,171,034 -25.7% / $1,626 $475,361,414 / 21
3	THE FIRST PURGE Universal 3,031	N/A	N/A	$9,305,875 -- / $3,070 $9,305,875 / 1	$4,600,070 -50.6% / $1,518 $13,905,945 / 2
4	SICARIO: DAY OF THE SOLDADO Sony / Columbia 3,055	$2,151,814 -59.7% / $704 $21,159,380 / 4	$2,583,670 +20.1% / $846 $23,743,050 / 5	$2,577,639 -0.2% / $844 $26,320,689 / 6	$1,681,381 -34.8% / $550 $28,002,070 / 7
5	UNCLE DREW Lionsgate/Summit 2,742	$1,815,214 -53.9% / $662 $17,057,995 / 4	$2,493,506 +37.4% / $909 $19,551,501 / 5	$2,177,946 -12.7% / $794 $21,729,447 / 6	$1,594,173 -26.8% / $581 $23,323,620 / 7
6	OCEAN'S 8 Warner Bros. 3,426	$1,374,089 -47.4% / $401 $116,378,931 / 25	$1,828,119 +33% / $534 $118,207,050 / 26	$2,093,164 +14.5% / $611 $120,300,214 / 27	$1,166,014 -44.3% / $340 $121,466,228 / 28
7	TAG Warner Bros. (New Line) 3,176	$995,117 -47.2% / $313 $42,128,656 / 18	$1,215,327 +22.1% / $383 $43,343,983 / 19	$1,201,586 -1.1% / $378 $44,545,569 / 20	$680,112 -43.4% / $214 $45,225,681 / 21
8	WON'T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR? Focus Features 654	$403,070 -52.7% / $616 $8,022,127 / 25	$521,425 +29.4% / $797 $8,543,552 / 26	$769,090 +47.5% / $1,176 $9,312,642 / 27	$479,085 -37.7% / $733 $9,791,727 / 28
9	DEADPOOL 2 Fox 1,850	$608,632 -46.4% / $291 $311,082,941 / 46	$703,757 +15.6% / $336 $311,786,698 / 47	$681,243 -3.2% / $368 $312,467,941 / 48	$403,459 -40.8% / $218 $312,871,400 / 49
10	SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY Buena Vista 1,654	$485,731 -43.5% / $294 $208,159,516 / 39	$637,351 +31.2% / $385 $208,796,867 / 40	$666,040 +4.5% / $403 $209,462,907 / 41	$397,190 -40.4% / $240 $209,860,097 / 42
11	SANJU FIP 357	$486,905 -46.9% / $1,368 $3,210,563 / 4	$602,987 +23.8% / $1,694 $3,813,550 / 5	$621,784 +3.1% / $1,742 $4,435,334 / 6	$292,245 -53% / $819 $4,727,579 / 7
12	AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR Buena Vista 890	$288,063 -41% / $324 $672,913,479 / 67	$393,874 +36.7% / $443 $673,307,353 / 68	$385,514 -2.1% / $433 $673,692,867 / 69	$236,607 -38.6% / $266 $673,929,474 / 70

 

2017 saw stuff staying steady, so sure things "dropped hard" compared to the usual discount Tuesday results, but let's also look at 2016.

 

Rank*	Title	Monday 7/4	Tuesday 7/5	Wednesday 7/6	Thursday 7/7
1	FINDING DORY Buena Vista 4,305	$9,619,207 -27.6% / $2,234 $381,785,985 / 18	$8,203,206 -14.7% / $1,906 $389,989,191 / 19	$6,382,911 -22.2% / $1,483 $396,372,102 / 20	$5,857,141 -8.2% / $1,361 $402,229,243 / 21
2	THE LEGEND OF TARZAN Warner Bros. 3,561	$8,054,549 -31.7% / $2,262 $46,582,405 / 4	$6,002,639 -25.5% / $1,686 $52,585,044 / 5	$4,302,487 -28.3% / $1,208 $56,887,531 / 6	$3,910,181 -9.1% / $1,098 $60,797,712 / 7
3	INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE Fox 4,091	$4,962,960 -15.5% / $1,213 $77,838,999 / 11	$2,544,830 -48.7% / $622 $80,383,829 / 12	$1,811,079 -28.8% / $443 $82,194,908 / 13	$1,600,674 -11.6% / $391 $83,795,582 / 14
4	THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR Universal 2,796	$4,624,185 -39.2% / $1,654 $36,139,295 / 4	$4,338,705 -6.2% / $1,552 $40,478,000 / 5	$3,187,895 -26.5% / $1,140 $43,665,895 / 6	$2,744,380 -13.9% / $982 $46,410,275 / 7
5	THE BFG Buena Vista 3,357	$3,941,459 -27.4% / $1,174 $22,716,809 / 4	$3,431,185 -12.9% / $1,022 $26,147,994 / 5	$2,659,678 -22.5% / $792 $28,807,672 / 6	$2,327,090 -12.5% / $693 $31,134,762 / 7
6	CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Warner Bros. (New Line) 3,166	$2,892,706 -30.3% / $914 $94,842,133 / 18	$2,102,139 -27.3% / $664 $96,944,272 / 19	$1,755,496 -16.5% / $554 $98,699,768 / 20	$1,500,570 -14.5% / $474 $100,200,338 / 21
7	THE SHALLOWS Sony / Columbia 2,962	$1,751,050 -35.4% / $591 $36,779,887 / 11	$1,719,197 -1.8% / $580 $38,499,084 / 12	$1,370,653 -20.3% / $463 $39,869,737 / 13	$1,155,542 -15.7% / $390 $41,025,279 / 14
8	FREE STATE OF JONES STX Entertainment 2,781	$1,162,043 -19.3% / $418 $16,368,264 / 11	$633,384 -45.5% / $228 $17,001,648 / 12	$506,973 -20% / $182 $17,508,621 / 13	$428,087 -15.6% / $154 $17,936,708 / 14
9	NOW YOU SEE ME 2 Lionsgate/Summit 1,788	$744,859 -24.2% / $417 $59,443,068 / 25	$570,392 -23.4% / $319 $60,013,460 / 26	$461,933 -19% / $258 $60,475,393 / 27	$353,820 -23.4% / $198 $60,829,213 / 28
10	THE CONJURING 2 Warner Bros. (New Line) 2,008	$680,730 -43% / $339 $95,950,251 / 25	$671,519 -1.4% / $334 $96,621,770 / 26	$575,216 -14.3% / $286 $97,196,986 / 27	$431,346 -25% / $215 $97,628,332 / 28
11	SWISS ARMY MAN A24 636	$258,995 -40.5% / $407 $1,828,034 / 11	$235,776 -9% / $371 $2,063,810 / 12	$209,920 -11% / $330 $2,273,730 / 13	$165,471 -21.2% / $260 $2,439,201 / 14
12	OUR KIND OF TRAITOR Roadside Attractions 373	$225,208 -28.8% / $604 $1,209,906 / 4	$110,779 -50.8% / $297 $1,320,685 / 5	$97,903 -11.6% / $262 $1,418,588 / 6	$94,548 -3.4% / $253 $1,513,136 / 7

 

Well what do you know, stuff held really well on the 4th. On a Monday, no less!

 

And when it comes to the same calendar configuration...

Rank*	Title	Monday 7/1	Tuesday 7/2	Wednesday 7/3	Thursday 7/4
1	DESPICABLE ME 2 Universal 3,956	N/A	N/A	$35,010,665 -- / $8,850 $35,010,665 / 1	$24,546,980 -29.9% / $6,205 $59,557,645 / 2
2	THE LONE RANGER Buena Vista 3,904	N/A	N/A	$9,651,118 -- / $2,472 $9,651,118 / 1	$9,853,043 +2.1% / $2,524 $19,504,161 / 2
3	THE HEAT Fox 3,181	$5,325,789 -51.4% / $1,674 $44,440,832 / 4	$5,382,437 +1.1% / $1,692 $49,823,269 / 5	$5,268,590 -2.1% / $1,656 $55,091,859 / 6	$6,403,429 +21.5% / $2,013 $61,495,288 / 7
4	MONSTERS UNIVERSITY Buena Vista 3,739	$7,898,760 -41.6% / $1,973 $178,331,953 / 11	$7,573,068 -4.1% / $1,891 $185,905,021 / 12	$5,404,009 -28.6% / $1,445 $191,309,030 / 13	$5,228,602 -3.2% / $1,398 $196,537,632 / 14
5	WORLD WAR Z Paramount 3,405	$4,387,159 -52% / $1,216 $128,084,078 / 11	$4,106,417 -6.4% / $1,138 $132,190,495 / 12	$4,034,822 -1.7% / $1,185 $136,225,317 / 13	$4,355,358 +7.9% / $1,279 $140,580,675 / 14
6	WHITE HOUSE DOWN Sony / Columbia 3,222	$3,053,125 -53.7% / $948 $27,905,383 / 4	$2,922,546 -4.3% / $907 $30,827,929 / 5	$2,666,733 -8.8% / $828 $33,494,662 / 6	$3,512,101 +31.7% / $1,090 $37,006,763 / 7
7	MAN OF STEEL Warner Bros. 2,965	$3,044,020 -52.2% / $737 $251,621,616 / 18	$2,784,230 -8.5% / $674 $254,405,846 / 19	$2,353,137 -15.5% / $794 $256,758,983 / 20	$3,015,170 +28.1% / $1,017 $259,774,153 / 21
8	KEVIN HART: LET ME EXPLAIN Lionsgate/Summit 876	N/A	N/A	$4,773,916 -- / $5,450 $4,773,916 / 1	$2,586,788 -45.8% / $2,953 $7,360,704 / 2
9	THIS IS THE END Sony / Columbia 2,104	$1,520,670 -45.6% / $561 $76,202,506 / 20	$1,236,408 -18.7% / $456 $77,438,914 / 21	$1,224,149 -1% / $582 $78,663,063 / 22	$1,141,090 -6.8% / $542 $79,804,153 / 23
10	NOW YOU SEE ME Lionsgate/Summit 1,606	$939,335 -44.9% / $366 $105,732,193 / 32	$742,501 -21% / $290 $106,474,694 / 33	$497,591 -33% / $310 $106,972,285 / 34	$673,127 +35.3% / $419 $107,645,412 / 35
11	STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS Paramount 660	$354,877 -49.1% / $343 $220,945,947 / 47	$262,982 -25.9% / $254 $221,208,929 / 48	$222,447 -15.4% / $337 $221,431,376 / 49	$323,187 +45.3% / $490 $221,754,563 / 50
12	FAST & FURIOUS 6 Universal 686	$348,750 -52.6% / $225 $233,700,515 / 39	$278,985 -20% / $180 $233,979,500 / 40	$222,950 -20.1% / $325 $234,202,450 / 41	$212,660 -4.6% / $310 $234,415,110 / 42

 

Wow, even some pretty dramatic increases. The only one I can say dropped hard was DM2, but that was because yesterday was OD, and take out its previews, it was only a drop of about 19%. Yeah I know it was six years ago, but when even recent results see stuff on the 4th holding okay, I don't think your theory holds much water. And no, I'm not saying  FFH is gonna stay flat or anything, but it'll probably only drop about 15% or something from the 3rd to the 4th than "drop hard" like you're suggesting.

[baumer]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movies always drop hard on the 4th. This would be different because?

 

Not entirely true.  We've never really had a movie open with the same pattern as FFH.  Most films that fall on the 4th do so because they have the 4th fall on a Monday or a Sunday.  

 

For example, Hancock had the 4th fall on a Friday and it went up 8%.

And if you want to look at a comparable...The Legend of Tarzan made 56 mill after 6 days and went on to make 126 mill, or a 2.2X.  If FFH does 170 after 6 days and follows the same path, it gets to 374 million.

 

Even if you follow Terminator Genisys, it still gets to 335 million.  

 

So I don't where all the doom and gloom is.  Just more over reaction from this site like usual.  

 

Transformers 3 the 4th was a Monday

Spider-man 2 the 4th was a Sunday

War of the Worlds the 4th was a Sunday

Twilight Eclipse was a Monday.

 

So there isn't a lot to go on here.  There is a possibility, and a good one that FFH sees a small increase or a small decrease on Thursday.  

[Cooper Legion]

I’m definitely starting to wonder if the one day difference in July 4s might have a bigger impact that I realized. Anyway, it will all be clear about 90 hours from now, but I still think there’s a good chance to clear 340 or so and avoid really letting me down.     

 

Even if things trend towards a really meh 300+200+450=950 (quote unlikely), that’s still like 165+42+180=387M revenue on a 160 budget!

[a2k]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	Spider-Man: Far From Home	Sony Pictures	$39,250,000		4,634	$8,470	$39,250,000	1
-	(2)	Annabelle Comes Home	Warner Bros.	$2,755,000	+8%	3,613	$763	$36,417,397	7
-	(6)	Men in Black: International	Sony Pictures	$800,000	-15%	3,663	$218	$66,907,511	19
-	(11)	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	Warner Bros.	$150,000	-54%	1,370	$109	$107,141,678	33
-	(14)	Shaft	Warner Bros.	$125,000	-26%	947	$132	$19,144,975	19
-	(15)	The Other Side of Heaven 2:…	ArtAffects	$88,083	-19%	205	$430	$650,853	5
-	(-)	The Last Black Man in San F…	A24	$61,679	-5%	155	$398	$2,124,579	26
-	(-)	UglyDolls	STX Entertainment	$7,430	+59%	82	$91	$20,138,236	61
-	(-)	The Souvenir	A24	$3,398	-16%	27	$126	$960,873	47

 

God KOTM Disc Tue drop ... usually it should be +45-50%

 

[Taruseth]

That would put the Tuesday-Midnight at something like 27-28% above TASM's T-M-OD.

So translation that for the Wend would mean 175m.

 

 

As Spider-Man now holds the Tuesday record (lol, only two movies prior to this ever opened above 20m because no one opens a movie on a Tuesday), that means that TFA now lost all records, when it opened it had Friday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday overall but it still holds Non-OD-records for Tuesday and Wednesday and Friday, which all should be somewhat safe (but on the other hand I thought the same about Monday and Tuesday in general) as Endgame probably had the highest chance to beat Non-OD-records for Tuesday and Friday.

 

Also, this makes Tuesday continue to be the only day that never had a 40+m movie:

 

Friday: 51

Saturday: 47

Sunday: 17

Monday: 2

Tuesday: 0

Wednesday: 5 (All Wednesday Opener, #6 is TFA with 38m)

Thursday: 1 (SW ROTS with 50m, no other movie above 40, highest on-OD are Transformers 2 with 29.1m (2nd day) and TFA with 27.4m (7th day).

 

Furthermore I still find it fascinating that Disney has #1,2 and #4-15 of Saturdays, #3 is Jurassic World and #16 is Catching Fire.

This year I guess TLK, Frozen 2 (that would be insane!) and RTOS have a chance to have a higher Saturday than Catching Fire (52.62m) so Disney would hold #1,2 and #4-17/18.

 

For the Saturday's this year it looks as follows:

Endgame (109.3m)

Endgame (61.5m)

C Marvel (52.9m)

Toy Story 4 (39.5m)

Spider-Man (35m???, 28% above TASM would be 30.3m)

Aladdin (30m)

C Marvel (29.4m)

Endgame (27.5m)

Us (25.4m) highest non-Disney Saturday is a horror movie from mid march

Toy Story 4 (23m)

Pika (20.4m)

 

Which non-Disney movies have a chance at a Saturday above 20/30m apart from Hollywood, Hobbs&Shaw, Jumanji, It (should easily clear 30m), Ad Astra??, Joker?

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by Taruseth

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Jim Shorts said:

I love your old man wisdom. 

This and if Homecoming had this OD would it have managed 39 million? I don't think it would have. So the panic is a bit premature.

[baumer]

@CoolEric258...i think @MovieMan89 means films that open the week of the 4th drop pretty hard, and I refuted that as well.

[poweranimals]

I thought the Endgame factor would have a bigger effect on this since Spidey's actually in the movie unlike with Ant-Man in Infinity War. But maybe 2 months just is too soon?

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Let’s say this. It’s unprecedented for a movie to open midweek on July 2nd. During this week in the calendar, the choice has always been July 3rd for opening day.

[keysersoze123]

There is no way this makes 400m. SM2 grossed 373m off 40.4m OD. It had great WOM, little competition(there was not even a 200m grosser after that). Plus movies played lot fewer screens than these days with humongous releases. I think 330-350m is the target for this movie.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way this makes 400m. SM2 grossed 373m off 40.4m OD. It had great WOM, little competition(there was not even a 200m grosser after that). Plus movies played lot fewer screens than these days with humongous releases. I think 330-350m is the target for this movie.

 

And that's where most people in the summer game had it finishing as well.

[ban1o]

 People are speaking way to soon about the numbers based on a Tuesday opening day where many theatres were selling the tickets for half off. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by ban1o

[Eric Prime]

Just now, baumer said:

@CoolEric258...i think @MovieMan89 means films that open the week of the 4th drop pretty hard, and I refuted that as well.

But even then, when you look at the data, stuff that opened that week still had okay drops. Sicario stayed flat, and Uncle Drew only dropped 13%. Tarzan and BFG did only 32% and 27% respectively, which is fantastic for a Monday. Lone Ranger increased for goodness sake. What I was trying to show is that movies don't drop hard, and that definitely applies to openers.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no way this makes 400m. SM2 grossed 373m off 40.4m OD. It had great WOM, little competition(there was not even a 200m grosser after that). Plus movies played lot fewer screens than these days with humongous releases. I think 330-350m is the target for this movie.

Way too early to be so sure about the gross. We haven't even gotten a day 2 number yet.

[baumer]

LADIES AND GENTLEMAN    

 

NO FUCKING SPOILERS.

 

How many times do you have to be reminded that if you are discussing the plot, an event, something infitissimal that takes place in a film, you are revealing spoilers.  

 

I have hidden one post, the next one that puts any kind of spoiler in the post is getting thread banned for a week.  Enough of this.  Jesus Christ it's like I'm playing cards with my brothers kids.  

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

July 4th is tricky. Let’s split into tiers:

 

Monday-Thur: having the 4th will boost over a typical July weekday

 

Friday-Sunday: weaker than a normal July FSS day, but the difference gets made up in the weekdays surrounding (with the exception of Saturday, that’s a heartbreaker on those weekends as Friday benefits only slightly)

Edited July 3, 2019 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

But even then, when you look at the data, stuff that opened that week still had okay drops. Sicario stayed flat, and Uncle Drew only dropped 13%. Tarzan and BFG did only 32% and 27% respectively, which is fantastic for a Monday. Lone Ranger increased for goodness sake. What I was trying to show is that movies don't drop hard, and that definitely applies to openers.

 

I'm on your side. 

[a2k]

98% on RT Aud with 7.8k votes. Could beat ITSV's 93% Aud score (16.9k ratings).

SMH, Venom, ITSV, FFH ... Sony recovered great with Spiderman's IP post ASM2.

 

FFH, Hollywood, JUM3 gives them a great year.

Zombie2, Charlie's Angels, Angry Birds2 could do well too.