Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

Aladdin will be closer to TLK's final dom than TLK will be to AEG's. Didn't see that happening.

360 --- 230 --- 590 --- 270 -- 860

 

AEG could end up a couple below and TLK could technically hit 600 but will still leave it closer to Aladdin.

Arithmetic mean of Aladdin and Endgame is 610, but I’d argue the geometric mean of 556 is more appropriate as a halfway point here. So it could come down to the wire, especially if Aladdin get Labor Day play.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Is Rocketman gonna make 100m? Paramount can't do double features with Dora?

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Arithmetic mean of Aladdin and Endgame is 610, but I’d argue the geometric mean of 556 is more appropriate as a halfway point here. So it could come down to the wire, especially if Aladdin get Labor Day play.

TLK did 312 in 1994.

Incredibles did 261 10 years later in 2004.

 

TLK2019 falling below I2 is surprising. I2 showed unrealistic growth from I : I1's goodwill, pent-up demand and CBM era. TLK2019's photo-realism is not entirely new thanks to TJB2016. Also BATB2017 was a big-bang live-action remake of a beloved 2D animation from the 90s, and TLK2019 is not novel in that regard too.

[The Dark Rock]

22 minutes ago, a2k said:

TLK did 312 in 1994.

Incredibles did 261 10 years later in 2004.

 

TLK2019 falling below I2 is surprising. I2 showed unrealistic growth from I : I1's goodwill, pent-up demand and CBM era. TLK2019's photo-realism is not entirely new thanks to TJB2016. Also BATB2017 was a big-bang live-action remake of a beloved 2D animation from the 90s, and TLK2019 is not novel in that regard too.

 

 

Given the reviews and average wom it's not that surprising. I2 had much better reviews and wom in comparison. TLK2019 would have done even worse if not for the goodwill of TLK. TLK2019 had so much potential at bo if not for being so serviceable and average affair. Huge success nonetheless but it had potential to be so much more.

[The Futurist]

I2's perfomance DOM never made sense to me.

I know all the arguments why it did this good.

Still doesn't make sense.

[Gamora]

Finally got around to seeing Iron Man Jr, uh I mean Spider-Man, and all I gotta say is I'm glad I had a free ticket.

[wildphantom]

Lion King 2019 is a one and done kind of movie. Worth seeing once, but I never saw it getting the repeat viewing that I2 clearly had.

At the end of the day most people going to TLK have already seen it tons of times over 25 years. It’s exactly the same film. 

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

I2's perfomance DOM never made sense to me.

I know all the arguments why it did this good.

Still doesn't make sense.

It has cs A+. GA LOVE it.

[AndyK]

3 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Lol holy shit 25% sales tax on products O_o. I live in Manitoba (Canada) and our sales tax is 13% lol

TBF, our sales tax (VAT) is mainly on luxuries. Essentials, like food are mostly zero rated. Energy supplies are 5%.

 

I think it's fair that people should pay for what they consume.

[BadAtGender]

The recent Pixar entries are all interesting to examine. They've all done gonzo business. All gotten pretty good to great reviews. And all have basically generated no conversation. Like, "Hey, here's this thing I liked with a sequel. Yep, still good. Peace out." The last one that really got into the cultural conversation was Inside Out. Even Coco, with all the accolades and people loving it got quiet soon after release.

[Porthos]

 

[xiazhi]

1 minute ago, ElsaRoc said:

The recent Pixar entries are all interesting to examine. They've all done gonzo business. All gotten pretty good to great reviews. And all have basically generated no conversation. Like, "Hey, here's this thing I liked with a sequel. Yep, still good. Peace out." The last one that really got into the cultural conversation was Inside Out. Even Coco, with all the accolades and people loving it got quiet soon after release.

That’s how family movies are, less online discussion. That doesn’t mean people have lower interest than other genres.

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Lol holy shit 25% sales tax on products O_o. I live in Manitoba (Canada) and our sales tax is 13% lol

Often not on all things.

Germany for example has 19% overall, but there is a lower one (7%) for Food, beverages, milk, books (only on paper, e-books will be 19% until 1st January of next year when they will change to 7% too), public transportation (short distances),  concerts and a few other things.

 

Though if you eat in a restaurant you pay 19% because you aren't paying for the food but for the service, unless you say you want to take it home and not eat there than its only 7% because you buy food.

 

Also with a 30M saturday, the highest saturdays this year would be as following:

Endgame: 109.26M

Endgame: 61.53M

TLK: 61.01M

RTOS?

Captain Marvel: 52.87M

Frozen 2?

It?

Toy Story 4: 39.52M

Spider-Man: FFH: 34.22M

Aladdin: 30.01M

TLK: 30M

Captain Marvel: 29.42M

Endgame: 27.54M

 

 

Us: 25.38

Toy Story 4: 23.04M

How to Train Your Dragon 3: 22.29M

Pikachu: 20.37M

 

So only one non Disney movie.

I guess Frozen and RTOS will both get a 1st saturday above TS4, so Disney will have the 6 biggest Saturdays this year and then probably #9&10 too and what non Disney movie will even get a 30M Saturday apart from It (that will most likely be the highest non Disney Saturday and be the reason why TS4 will be in #8 and not in #7).

 

 

Edited July 28, 2019 by Taruseth

[terrestrial]

Its OT, but the amount does surprise me:

 

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 2 hours ago

More

Amazon is dropping an estimated $1 billion on the LORD OF THE RINGS TV series prequel—easily the most expensive endeavor in the history of television. They do know there’s like 5 GAME OF THRONES spinoffs, right? I just hope we’ll all still have free shipping if this tanks...

[Spidey Freak]

36 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

The recent Pixar entries are all interesting to examine. They've all done gonzo business. All gotten pretty good to great reviews. And all have basically generated no conversation. Like, "Hey, here's this thing I liked with a sequel. Yep, still good. Peace out." The last one that really got into the cultural conversation was Inside Out. Even Coco, with all the accolades and people loving it got quiet soon after release.

TBF Coco did generate a lot of excitement OS. The (still strong) but smaller DOM numbers were reflected in its overall muted response DOM as well. Though it piqued on a few more people's radars after the Oscars.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Its OT, but the amount does surprise me:

 

Exhibitor Relations Co.‏ @ERCboxoffice 2 hours ago

More

Amazon is dropping an estimated $1 billion on the LORD OF THE RINGS TV series prequel—easily the most expensive endeavor in the history of television. They do know there’s like 5 GAME OF THRONES spinoffs, right? I just hope we’ll all still have free shipping if this tanks...

I just don’t understand how someone could have possibly OK’ed that. What is it even being used for? That’s like 3 Endgame’s of budget!

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Its OT, but the amount does surprise me:

Somewhat old news.  As I understand it, a decent chunk of the money is an upfront fee to the Tolkien estate. 

 

Part of the problem is though, the b word has been loosely thrown about with very little sourcing, just everyone parroting everyone else.:

 

Amazon according to "insiders" bid $250m for the rights from the Tolkien estate.

 

There is going to be five seasons.  It is "estimated" by "experts" that this will drive up the price to "north of" a billion dollars.

 

My main problem is though is that this is all very thinly sourced.

 

Still, let's take the figure of 750m as reasonably accurate.

 

10 episodes a season (guesstimate).  5 seasons.  That's 50 episodes.  We're now talking about 15m per episode (750/50 = 15).  Pretty high but not obscenely high, according to some recent other high profile TV shows.

 

For instance, that might be close to the price tag for individual episodes of of the new SW Live Action TV series, The Mandalorian.

 

Quote

In addition, the article also indicates Disney+’s lavish first live-action “Star Wars” series “The Mandalorian” is also clocking in at a budget of around the same amount – nearly $15 million an episode. It has a confirmed eight-episode run.

 

Launching a service flagship show requires big bucks. The first season of CBS All Access’ “Star Trek: Discovery” came in at $125 million, a little over $8 million an episode across a 15 episode first season.

Netflix launched its originals with the relatively cost-effective “House of Cards” at $4.5M an episode – but have since spent much more on shows like “The Crown” ($13M), “The Get Down” ($11M), “Sense8” ($9M), “Marco Polo” ($9M) & “Altered Carbon” ($7M).

 

HBO famously spent big on “Band of Brothers” ($12.5M), Rome” ($9M) and recently paid $15 million per episode for the final season of “Game of Thrones”. All these records could easily be decimated by Amazon Studios’ proposed “The Lord of the Rings” series which they’ve already spent $250 million on just to acquire the rights to develop.

 

====

 

So, yes.  1b is an eye popping number.  When the rights fee is subtracted and an entire 5 year's worth of shows factored in, not quite as much.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I just don’t understand how someone could have possibly OK’ed that. What is it even being used for? That’s like 3 Endgame’s of budget!

40 to 50 hours worth of big budget TV adds up, you know (8 to 10 episodes per season).

 

Check the math in the last post and it more or less checks out.  The gamble is the 5 years, not the price tag.

 

I also reckon that they can pull the plug at any time.  It's not like 1b is being spent up front after all.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Makes some good headlines too and shows everyone how serious and committed they supposedly are to this show. It ain't gonna be a lazy effort. 

[Legion Again]

Imagine spending 1B on 5 seasons of a show and finding out halfway through season 1 that people don’t like it much    

 

Not sating that *will* happen, but what a nightmare ‘twould be

Edited July 28, 2019 by Thanos Legion