Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

At this point its obvious. Youre just @Charlie Jatinder's alt.

[AlexMA]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

As said last post though, I doubt they've spent 1b upfront.  It's the 250m rights fee going down the drain which would hurt, as well as the upfront costs that happen at the start of a series.  That'd still be a lot of cash, but I tend to think if they need to pull the plug they can do it without having to write off the whole 1b in total.

This right here, they've only committed to 2 seasons so only about half a billion would go down the drain if they pulled the plug early because maybe it sucks or something. Sure, it wouldn't be a 1 billion flop, but it's not like half a billion is pocket change, even for Amazon.

[RamblinRed]

So TLK is headed for 550-600M. 

 

FFM getting to 400M is much more unlikely after this weekend. Could be gone completely by next weekend. 

 

OUaTiH should open to right around 40M. Not a great preview to OW ratio. With audience scores continuing to fall - now down to 74% on RT and the OW ratio i'm expecting it likely is not going to have a great multiple. Probably sub 3X. IB had a 49% 2nd weekend drop. I'm thinking OUaTiH will more more like 55% and then had Labor Day weekend in weekend 3. Maybe a 100-110M finish. We'll see how much H&S hurts it next weekend.

 

TS4 is really chugging along. Should hit at least 430M. Can it have a higher daily on Tuesday than FFH? By next weekend they could be in a dead heat in terms of dailies. 

 

One note. Sunday drops this weekend may be a little higher than last weekend. Looking at last year the avg drop for Sunday was 5% higher than the weekend before - 22.3% vs 17.6%. Next weekend's Sunday drops were higher as well -26.7% vs -22.3%. 

 

 

 

[TMP]

1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

now down to 74% on RT

Y'all put too much faith in these RT audience score ratings

[AlexMA]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Y'all put too much faith in these RT audience score ratings

It's another metric for viewer satisfaction, which can then lead to good or not so good word of mouth. The higher that score, the more likely that person is to recommend the movie to his friends, thus better legs for the film in question.

Edited July 28, 2019 by AlexMA

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Y'all put too much faith in these RT audience score ratings

It correlates with the Cinemascore. Not surprised that this one isn't as loved as Django Unchained and Inglorious Basterds. Audience reception seems much closer to Jackie Brown which wasn't liked much by even Tarantino fans when it released (because it was different from Pulp Fiction even though imo, it is a much better film than Pulp Fiction). 

[Geo1500]

The lion king is once again the victim of extreme and severe low-balling just like last week. With actuals it comes in minimum 85M

[narniadis]

Seems Tuesday definitely capped the high mark for the weekend. 

Almost makes me feel vindicated for all the crap I was given for saying it would land between 75 and 85 with under 80 being more likely. Obviously with the high Tuesday I adjusted up some for low 80s but was still originally right. The previews always need to be taken into account. 

Same with Hollywood, if it makes 40m after actuals, the next weekend will be around 17/18ish if not lower. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

The lion king is once again the victim of extreme and severe low-balling just like last week. With actuals it comes in minimum 85M

What? No. Won't even come close Charlie and Rth gave us numbers. Real numbers. Would need 33M Sunday after a 30M Saturday.

 

Or, maybe I completely my missed a joke. Hard to say with your posting history.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

The lion king is once again the victim of extreme and severe low-balling just like last week. With actuals it comes in minimum 85M

Geo, I am trying to be nice here but shut up. 85 will not happen, cannot happen as it would require the Sunday actual to increase from Saturday. Your obsession with a lack of reality is just plain bad. 

Even if they under report, 80m itself will be difficult as an 8m+ addition is just not in the room, its overall gross is too small for more than 1 or 2m. 

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

What? No. Won't even come close Charlie and Rth gave us numbers. Real numbers. Would need 33M Sunday after a 30M Saturday.

 

Or, maybe I completely my missed a joke. Hard to say with your posting history.

If only it was a joke. 

[wildphantom]

There’s no way to tell what kind of multiplier Hollywood will have yet. 

What would the audience score have been for some of his other movies? We’ll never know. This is a new thing having the relatively new RT audience score relating to his films. 

There are going to be youngsters seeing the movie for the stars that would never normally watch this type of movie. They’re much more likely to use RT than the older audiences it’s made for who would never login and use that site. 

 

Personally I see it doing solid business for the next few weeks as older audiences continue to check it out. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

If only it was a joke. 

Yeah. Not thinking it was... Same poster had Aladdin doing 60M+ second weekend and Toy Story 4 doing 50M OW.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

There’s no way to tell what kind of multiplier Hollywood will have yet. 

What would the audience score have been for some of his other movies? We’ll never know. This is a new thing having the relatively new RT audience score relating to his films. 

There are going to be youngsters seeing the movie for the stars that would never normally watch this type of movie. They’re much more likely to use RT than the older audiences it’s made for who would never login and use that site. 

 

Personally I see it doing solid business for the next few weeks as older audiences continue to check it out. 

I see it barely crossing 100M DOM.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I see it barely crossing 100M DOM.

Would love to see it leg out above Basterds, but as frontloaded as the weekend was I dont see it as a possibility. With the lack of films for 2 more weeks it does have time to make some solid ground as it will be over 70m this time next week at a minimum. 

[Alli]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I see it barely crossing 100M DOM.

my club wasn't so far fetched, after all

[Bagatelle31]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I see it barely crossing 100M DOM.

LOL 2,5x OW for a Tarantino in the summer with labor day in a month. Sure.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

That’s not good for TLK...  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It should’ve been dropping 80% instead.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Would love to see it leg out above Basterds, but as frontloaded as the weekend was I dont see it as a possibility. With the lack of films for 2 more weeks it does have time to make some solid ground as it will be over 70m this time next week at a minimum. 

I mean would too, easily my favorite anything by Tarantino since Jackie Brown. Just think for a slew of reasons, folks won't be as satisfied. Very different from Django and Basterds.

[The Futurist]

Tarantino made this Hollywood movie for him and his cult but not much more.

Movie is so niche it hurts ans will resonate with very few people.