Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[darthdevidem01]

13 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

So, Star wars will drop more than 50% this weekend. 

After opening lower 50%+ drop is not justified. 

This movie does not have good WOM. How is this surprising?

[ViewerAnon]

I’m still a little perplexed at using 2013 as such a solid baseline. In 2013, a number of movies increased on Thursday. Based on Jat’s numbers, everything but FROZEN II dropped today. 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

so  is 1 Billion still on the table?

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I’m still a little perplexed at using 2013 as such a solid baseline. In 2013, a number of movies increased on Thursday. Based on Jat’s numbers, everything but FROZEN II dropped today. 

What else would you have us use?

[ViewerAnon]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

What else would you have us use?

Call me crazy, but if my model contradicts the data I’m being presented, I don’t try to jam the data into that model.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Call me crazy, but if my model contradicts the data I’m being presented, I don’t try to jam the data into that model.

Okay, well that’s a nice soundbite, but you 100% dodged my actual question. 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[ViewerAnon]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Okay, well that’s a nice soundbite, but you 100% dodged my actual question. 

Maybe there isn’t an applicable model and we’ll all just have to - shock! gasp! horror! - wait until we have some data tomorrow.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Maybe there isn’t an applicable model and we’ll all just have to - shock! gasp! horror! - wait until we have some data tomorrow.

Well I mean you can always just wait 72 hours and have actuals. I feel like you’re still kind of missing the point here. Many people like to, as a mental exercise, try to guess what numbers will be before we have them. Somehow, I feel like you actually do know that, and are jut being kind of dense about it.   
 

Now, when people are doing that, they like to use the best models they can. Obviously, those will not be perfect. If you can’t actually offer any suggestions as to what would be a better way to predict than looking at 2013, I am forced to conclude that you agree it is the best available (quite reasonably). And then I rather wonder what the point of your last 3 or 4 posts here had been, except that it looks like TROS is heading for a lowish weekend and you don’t like that.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Maybe there isn’t an applicable model and we’ll all just have to - shock! gasp! horror! - wait until we have some data tomorrow.

You're right, but a lot of what people do here, myself included, is "Fun with numbers". Most of us who make posts like my last one know full well we don't have all the information (as I noted) but we'll jot down numbers anyway. I probably came across a little knee-jerkish -not exactly feeling myself today - but I do realize that key's data doesnt yet tell the whole story and the picture could very well look much better tomorrow morning.

 

I will say, though, I dont think even a number like 84 is THAT great. It's not horrible either, but the way the calendar is set up this year my personal feeling is that it was capable of doing more (something like 35/35/26/96).

 

EDIT: @Arendelle Legion already covered it.

Edited December 27, 2019 by JB33

[JB33]

For the record, I didnt catch JJ's 30.5 number. My bad. 

[Bart Allen]

7 hours ago, FilmBuff said:

Just realized that TROS might not even reach the worldwide OW Endgame hit at 1.2 billion dollars. 

Where do you see The Rise of Skywalker's international box-office ending?

 

1. Avengers: Endgame ($1.9 billion)

2. The Lion King ($1.1 billion)

3. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($741 million)

4. Joker ($730 million+) without China 🥰🥰

5. Frozen II ($719 million +)

6. Captain Marvel ($701 million)

7. Toy Story 4 ($639 million)

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Hoping it can bounce to 88

[Madhuvan]

14 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Where do you see The Rise of Skywalker's international box-office ending?

 

1. Avengers: Endgame ($1.9 billion)

2. The Lion King ($1.1 billion)

3. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($741 million)

4. Joker ($730 million+) without China 🥰🥰

5. Frozen II ($719 million +)

6. Captain Marvel ($701 million)

7. Toy Story 4 ($639 million)

Lower than all. Add Alaadin also. It's OS total will be less than Aladdin. 

Total 8 movies this year are going to have larger OS total than Tros. That's crazy whichever way you look at it. 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lower than all. Add Alaadin also. It's OS total will be less than Aladdin. 

Total 8 movies this year are going to have larger OS total than Tros. That's crazy whichever way you look at it. 

+Ne Zha and Wandering Earth 😉

[Bart Allen]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lower than all. Add Alaadin also. It's OS total will be less than Aladdin. 

Total 8 movies this year are going to have larger OS total than Tros. That's crazy whichever way you look at it. 

Whoops, Aladdin's OS total is #7 ahead of Toy Story 4 at $695 million ~

 

That's utterly insane, Madhuvan, I mean I know I always praise Joker - and rightfully so, of course - but imagine an R-rated film which the media suggested could lead to violence and possible death surpassing Captain Marvel, The Rise of Skywalker (the last film of the Skywalker Saga as they keep reminding us) and Aladdin's OS total 🤯😲 The biggest surprises of the year are Endgame, Joker and The Rise of Skywalker, the latter of which for all the wrong reasons ~

Edited December 27, 2019 by Bart Allen

[Liiviig 1998]

25 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Where do you see The Rise of Skywalker's international box-office ending?

 

1. Avengers: Endgame ($1.9 billion)

2. The Lion King ($1.1 billion)

3. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($741 million)

4. Joker ($730 million+) without China 🥰🥰

5. Frozen II ($719 million +)

6. Captain Marvel ($701 million)

7. Toy Story 4 ($639 million)

Not  even coming close to any of these. It will be lucky to even sniff anywhere near 600m.  Daily OS numbers already on par with or just under domestic.

[xiazhi]

13 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lower than all. Add Alaadin also. It's OS total will be less than Aladdin. 

Total 8 movies this year are going to have larger OS total than Tros. That's crazy whichever way you look at it. 

sw han't been able to attract new audience outside Western countries since 1977?

[JonathanLB]

1 hour ago, darthdevidem01 said:

This movie does not have good WOM. How is this surprising?

It has great word of mouth, so that’s bullshit. But I think you know that already. 

[Liiviig 1998]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

It has great word of mouth, so that’s bullshit. But I think you know that already

I think we should wait for third weekend post holiday frame.

Wom seems fine but Great!! .This is no where near TFA WOM tbh.

[Andreas]

1 hour ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

so  is 1 Billion still on the table?

C'mon now... it's locked.