Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[Agafin]

39 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lower than all. Add Alaadin also. It's OS total will be less than Aladdin. 

Total 8 movies this year are going to have larger OS total than Tros. That's crazy whichever way you look at it. 

10 actually, as there's also two chinese movies which will make more.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, Andreas said:

C'mon now... it's locked.

Im paranoid lol

[Krissykins]

Cats daily drops are actually ok (-5% Boxing Day). But it’s just at far too low a level. Will finish with ~$30m probably. 

[a2k]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

AT MTC1 F2 is up around 16% from yesterday. Jumanji is down 20% from yesterday at MTC1. SW9 is down 15.5% in MTC1 and down 11.4% at MTC2.

hmm...would be disappointed if Jum falls again on Fri after -16% Thu (JediJat's 30) even though it's coming off a bigger than expected 12.55 Wed. Hoping for 10 atleast.

 

EDIT: @narniadis pointed out that this is final Thu and not early Fri data.

Edited December 27, 2019 by a2k

[Moviefanfr]

Jumanji and SW will become less presales heavy. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Moviefanfr

[Zakiyyah6]

Whenever I said that Rise of Skywalker had an 80% chance of pulling in lower numbers than The Last Jedi overseas numbers I was scoffed at. I was told that Rise of Skywalker would increase overseas despite the franchise trending downwards. The film is still going to make a lot of money but the lack of a selling point, because the middle film didn't leave it with any, and the poor quality of the Rise of Skywalker itself is bitting the film in the ass.

 

As for domestic, which this thread is about. People panic too much so I'm going to play wait and see again. 

[a2k]

TROS guess

 

Thu	26 Dec 19	30.4	-5.9%	289.7	112.3
Fri	27 Dec 19	30.0	-1.3%	319.7
Sat	28 Dec 19	31.0	3.3%	350.7
Sun	29 Dec 19	24.0	-22.6%	374.7	85.0	-52.1%
Mon	30 Dec 19	18.0	-25.0%	392.7
Tue	31 Dec 19	15.5	-13.9%	408.2
Wed	1 Jan 20	19.5	25.8%	427.7
Thu	2 Jan 20	10.0	-48.7%	437.7	63.0
Fri	3 Jan 20	12.5	25.0%	450.2
Sat	4 Jan 20	17.0	36.0%	467.2
Sun	5 Jan 20	10.0	-41.2%	477.2	39.5	-53.5%

 

Adding 2.1x the Jan 3-5 weekend gives 560 dom.

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by a2k

[lab276]

3 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

I’m still a little perplexed at using 2013 as such a solid baseline. In 2013, a number of movies increased on Thursday. Based on Jat’s numbers, everything but FROZEN II dropped today. 

 

We use 2013 because that's the last time we had this calendar setup, which is to say Christmas Day being a Wednesday, Boxing Day Thursday etc. Next time will be 2024.

Edited December 27, 2019 by lab276

[a2k]

JUM guess

 

Thu	26 Dec 19	10.5	-16.0	139.5
Fri	27 Dec 19	10.0	-4.8	149.5
Sat	28 Dec 19	11.0	10.0	160.5
Sun	29 Dec 19	9.0	-18.2	169.5	30.0
Mon	30 Dec 19	6.5	-27.8	176.0
Tue	31 Dec 19	6.0	-7.7	182.0
Wed	1 Jan 20	8.5	41.7	190.5
Thu	2 Jan 20	4.5	-47.1	195.0	25.5
Fri	3 Jan 20	6.0	33.3	201.0
Sat	4 Jan 20	8.5	41.7	209.5
Sun	5 Jan 20	4.5	-47.1	214.0	19.0 (-37%)

 

Adding 3-3.25x the Jan 3-5 weekend gives 271-276 dom

 

edit: @Jedi Jat has given the Thu Jum number as 11.20.

Edited December 27, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	30.40
Jumanji: The Next Level	11.20
Little Women	6.10
Frozen 2	5.60
Spies in Disguise	4.15
Uncut Gems	3.40
Knives Out	3.20
Cats	1.81
Bombshell	1.58
Richard Jewell	1.00
Ford v. Ferrari	0.61
Queen & Slim	0.51
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	0.48
Black Christmas	0.32
1917	0.19

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Is this for Friday?

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

Is this for Friday?

Thursday updated - real Asgard numbers. Friday numbers will have to wait but you will see guesses based on pre-sales in the tracking thread. 

[Moviefanfr]

No Thursday number. 

Good hold I hope it can increase a little on Friday.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

did you hear about the extended cut for TROS releasing in theaters or something

[fmpro]

32 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	30.40
Jumanji: The Next Level	11.20
Little Women	6.10
Frozen 2	5.60
Spies in Disguise	4.15
Uncut Gems	3.40
Knives Out	3.20
Cats	1.81
Bombshell	1.58
Richard Jewell	1.00
Ford v. Ferrari	0.61
Queen & Slim	0.51
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	0.48
Black Christmas	0.32
1917	0.19

Loving that J3 more and more with every update

[Feanor]

3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

+Ne Zha and Wandering Earth 😉

So TROS is not even gonna make into the top 10 overseas grossers of this year...

Disney/Lucasfilm really needs to work on Star Wars´ international appeal with their future projects.

Because this is really not promising for future Star Wars movies.

[Justin4125]

3 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Whoops, Aladdin's OS total is #7 ahead of Toy Story 4 at $695 million ~

 

That's utterly insane, Madhuvan, I mean I know I always praise Joker - and rightfully so, of course - but imagine an R-rated film which the media suggested could lead to violence and possible death surpassing Captain Marvel, The Rise of Skywalker (the last film of the Skywalker Saga as they keep reminding us) and Aladdin's OS total 🤯😲 The biggest surprises of the year are Endgame, Joker and The Rise of Skywalker, the latter of which for all the wrong reasons ~

 

I'm not attacking you here keep doing what you're doing, but your capacity to act *surprised* about Joker's OS performance is truly remarkable. I fail to see how it is so surprising that Joker will outperform TROS OS when Joker passed the OS total of every previous SW flick except TFA. That's like if I mentioned BP's domestic performance after every big tentpole came in under it. Omg, can you believe a movie with near all black cast and no nostalgia-bait is making more domestically than a SW/TA movie? Wow can you believe it did better than TLK? Who would have thought it would make more domestically than Justice League did worldwide? The numbers speak for themselves, this constant re-contextualizing is wearing thin.

 

Besides, any single film can under-perform. What does it really say that BP dom out-grossed Justice League WW? Its surprising, sure, but its clear the box office numbers betray the true power of the Justice League IP. Singling out under-performers and using them to frame and further boost the success of an out-performer is a near-sighted approach to analyzing film success and the viability of IP. BP's numbers are no more impressive (or Justice League's any less impressive) by framing one with the other. One out-performed and the other under-performed, but the factors surrounding the performance of each film dominate. SW is clearly on the backfoot, but its relatively lackluster performance does not make any other 1bn+ grossers any more impressive, all it says is that TROS film under-performed.

 

I am genuinely curious though, is there an experienced box office tracker on this site who is surprised by TROS's performance? The saga has been on a downward trajectory, and the last film, Solo, outright bombed, providing a clear indication about audiences' feelings towards the franchise at the current moment. The more optimistic forecasts assumed the film would be better received, but the divisive critical reaction caught many off guard and it immediately moderated expectations. The only thing it seems experienced trackers were unsure about was whether this film could help fans reconcile their feelings about the current trilogy. When it appeared that this would largely not be the case, expectations simmered. TROS has more or less everything going against it from critics and fans alike, yet it will still pull 1bn+. SW has maintained a place in our zeit-geist for decades. While TROS is in damage control mode, it does not necessarily spell doom for the IP. Course corrections are required, but such corrections and a few year gap can still re-invigorate the franchise, making a future SW film a leader once again across mature markets (growth markets are a serious concern, but I'm not ready to count the franchise out yet). HP1 - 3 out-performed AOTC and ROTS, but TFA topped HP8 by a wide margin. Franchises should only be partly judged on their under-performers, especially the rare ones like SW that have demonstrated exceptional staying power, and I'm not ready to count SW out due to recent under-performers 

 

 

[Madhuvan]

Jumanji 3 looks like 300m grosser to me. 

If it hold strong next week 350m is also possible. January is pretty much dead for family movies. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 hour ago, Feanor said:

So TROS is not even gonna make into the top 10 overseas grossers of this year...

Disney/Lucasfilm really needs to work on Star Wars´ international appeal with their future projects.

Because this is really not promising for future Star Wars movies.

 

They already tried it with TFA, and then, tried to appeal Asia with Rogue One.

 

In both cases, it only worked in the markets where this franchise was already big, lol.

 

This brand carries a stigma OS, I doubt they will ever be able to appeal to any of the emerging markets, as long as it is associated to SW, people will reject it.

 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

TROS guess

 

Thu	26 Dec 19	30.4	-5.9%	289.7	112.3
Fri	27 Dec 19	30.0	-1.3%	319.7
Sat	28 Dec 19	31.0	3.3%	350.7
Sun	29 Dec 19	24.0	-22.6%	374.7	85.0	-52.1%
Mon	30 Dec 19	18.0	-25.0%	392.7
Tue	31 Dec 19	15.5	-13.9%	408.2
Wed	1 Jan 20	19.5	25.8%	427.7
Thu	2 Jan 20	10.0	-48.7%	437.7	63.0
Fri	3 Jan 20	12.5	25.0%	450.2
Sat	4 Jan 20	17.0	36.0%	467.2
Sun	5 Jan 20	10.0	-41.2%	477.2	39.5	-53.5%

 

Adding 2.1x the Jan 3-5 weekend gives 560 dom.

 

I said over/under Lion King DOM would be a good club pre-open b/c my feeling was it was gonna be $25M over/under that movie...now that I saw it, I'm hoping for under TLK's numbers, but not moving off that general mark in the middle:)...