Legion Again Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, RealLyre said: a 40-50 opening can lead to 150M domestic total no? if reception is good and there's no much competition. I think OS is DOA but domestically this can come close or do on par with Shazam/Ant-man (the former more than the latter obv). A 50 could, in theory, though I think BoxOfficePro is right on the money with 2.75 legs in their most recent long terms forecast. A 40, not so much. 40*2.75=110 is roughly what I’m feeling atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 27 minutes ago, a2k said: With prod budget being only 85 Isn't the budget $97mn. There will be a release cost of $100mn Approx easily. Will need $300mn atleast worldwide, with a high Dom ratio. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: Isn't the budget $97mn. There will be a release cost of $100mn Approx easily. Will need $300mn atleast worldwide, with a high Dom ratio. It's 97 mil without the 12 mil California tax incentives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: Isn't the budget $97mn. There will be a release cost of $100mn Approx easily. Will need $300mn atleast worldwide, with a high Dom ratio. $85m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: It's 97 mil without the 12 mil California tax incentives. BoP felt more like a 120M-150m budget movie, WB are getting better at handling their prod budgets. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, RealLyre said: BoP felt more like a 120M-150m budget movie, WB are getting better at handling their prod budgets. I miss the days of a $300m movie that looked like a mockbuster for the Avengers 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martasnos Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Alright, I'm from a smaller country and haven't been following box office for a while so this doesn't mean much but I thought I'd still share. It's actually not doing THAT bad here, at least not where I'm checking. It's doing better than Shazam so far, which isn't saying much but it is what it is. It comes out today so I only have the ~1pm and ~3pm and 4pm sessions to compare/look at, but it's not very common to see movies with more than 20/30 seats sold before 7pm during weekdays, which this is doing (including a 3:50pm session that only had the front rows left), because everyone's at work, which makes me think this is very teenage group heavy, especially because it seems it's mostly walk ups and the seat pattern clearly indicates it's a bunch of 5-7 people groups. It's also selling well at a cinema near a university that is empty 90% of the time. Literally where I go to when I want to watch movies in peace. That being said, it's doing usual CBM business after 8pm and the bigger screens are half full, which, 99% of the time, means this is gonna end up at at least 80% capacity. Just as an example - the 3:50pm session that almost sold-out had exactly 2 tickets sold this morning (this one is very anecdotal - it's a smaller screen, with around 140 seats, but I think it sold more in comparison to the bigger one because it's Dolby ATMOS). Also feel the need to add that marketing has been awful (I have gotten 1 single Instagram ad) here and they finally did the bare minimum - put up posters on the subway - yesterday. Now, if this doesn't sell out the afternoon session on Saturday, at the cinema the teenage groups all flock to, then it better have some amazing Joker-type legs or it's DOA. It's almost tradition for that to happen - even Shazam sold that one out and it was the worst performing CBM in a while. Sorry for the long text guys, just wanted to share 😊 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny G Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) People need to understand that a mid budgeted movie cannot have the same marketing campaign as a $150M+ movie. Otherwise it’s defeats the whole point of making a mid budget movie. They need to recoup every dollars they spend on marketing. Edited February 6, 2020 by Manny G 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Honestly, I don't think the France OD is as bad as it seems compared to Shazam (lower than Catwoman is still awful) because it seems like Shazam also had previews while it seem like BoP had none. According to a pretty respected French user on r/boxoffice, it could still leg out Shazam with a similar OW because of holidays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fielding Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 10 hours ago, Valonqar said: Margot is not a star OS. Despite the insane hype, so many of today's "stars" are simply nowhere near as popular as they or their acolytes think they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 In France we can expect 400K admissions opening week and something between 1M and 1,5M admissions with holidays coming soon not less not more http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The early overseas numbers are bad for BOP,just no way to get around it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Italy Thurs OD -24% Shazam Wed OD, -~20% Shazam Thursday Day 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 (edited) Figure people will want this for reference. Shazam: 15.7M Thurs cume 28.7M OS-C Fri cume Initial est 71M OS-C Sun cume actual 72M OS-C Sun cume afaik markets should be identical, both have Japan later and everything else day and date? Went to about 176M OS-C-J finish, x2.44. Now, Shazam got Endgamed, I think Birds can do x2.6+ though obviously OS reception will be a determinant as well. Btw, expect a lot of comparisons to Shazam, Ant-man, and Captain America:The First Avenger(!) in the deadline writeups Edited February 7, 2020 by Arendelle Legion 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said: Btw, expect a lot of comparisons to Shazam, Ant-man, and Captain America:The First Avenger(!) in the deadline writeups Deadline: It's projected to beat Aquaman because we are hearing great evening night performance 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Deadline: It's projected to beat Aquaman because we are hearing great evening night performance 17 people in Naples Florida bought some pizza and really loved it. 3 Billie confirmed 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said: 17 people in Naples Florida bought some pizza and really loved it. 3 Billie confirmed With the billies you make it sound like a james cameron comment tbh 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martasnos Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Little update: yesterday morning it had sold 20 tickets total for the entire day at one cinema. Today it's at 55. It's obviously not a lot in total (it's still 11am here so, not surprised), but it does mean it's selling at over 2x the pace today, I guess. Last night the bigger screen didn't sell out BUT that is due to there being 2 9pm screenings - one at 9:20 and one at 9:50. Usually, there's more competition so movies only have 1 screen. Can't even remember a movie having 2 screens at the same cinema during its 1st week. I didn't count the totals but I did look at them and the smaller screen (136 seats) had 5 or 6 random seats left and the bigger screen (363 seats) was around 60% full (I checked around 9pm, could have some good walk up business and do better). Which does look like if it was just 1 screen it would have almost sold-out around 9pm. It really doesn't look as bad as it's sounding around the rest of Europe. So, there's 3 options: 1) I'm overestimating the performance here (like I said, haven't been following BO for a while, so it's the most likely option); 2) Portugal is over performing compared to other countries for some reason; 3) The other European countries that we have numbers from have confirmed cases of the Corona virus and we don't. Maybe it's affecting the West more than we think? Seems very unlikely but no clue. I'm gonna try to keep track of sales for the rest of the week and give updates 😊 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martasnos Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 (edited) Sorry for the double post. Didn't think I'd have time to check the numbers but I did! Here are yesterday's numbers vs today's. They were both counted between 11am and 12pm. This is from the 2 biggest cinemas/theater chain in the capital, all screens, all screenings, for today (07/02). ATMOS (3 screens; 15 screenings) - 31 vs 129 total sold (0.08% vs 0.34% of total) IMAX (1 screen; 5 screenings) - 18 vs 41 total sold (1.16% vs 2.65%) Edited February 7, 2020 by martasnos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said: Figure people will want this for reference. Shazam: 15.7M Thurs cume 28.7M OS-C Fri cume Initial est 71M OS-C Sun cume actual 72M OS-C Sun cume afaik markets should be identical, both have Japan later and everything else day and date? Hooooly shit, 7.8M 2-day cume https://deadline.com/2020/02/birds-of-prey-opening-weekend-warner-bros-dc-global-international-box-office-coronavirus-1202853998/ Deadline Quote Ahead of the weekend, the industry was seeing a $60M-$70M offshore launch frame; the film is likely to come in at the lower end of that range Edited February 7, 2020 by Arendelle Legion 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
