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Jamiem

Birds of Prey 113.4m OS 195.8m WW

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Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

I mean, I do still think this is more likely than not, but... far from assured.

What? Sorry I haven’t had the chance to pay a lot of attention and I just jumped into this thread.....but ummm 😐

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5 minutes ago, Nova said:

What? Sorry I haven’t had the chance to pay a lot of attention and I just jumped into this thread.....but ummm 😐

Well a few days ago Deadline was on:

50-55 DOM

60-70 OS  

 

Now Deadline OS OW estimates are a bit... so-so. It’s possible that a well-informed range at the time would have been 80-90, and so even coming in below with like 65 locks up a global 100. But their range could be too high too, in which case 100 would be a goner.  

 

If we take their ranges as is, then I think it’s quite possible for DOM to do just ~40 (5x8 or 4.7x8.5 or smth). Then OS could come in just 5% below the deadline low end vs 20% DOM and we’d be missing 100M global open.    
 

Another way to look at it is that Shazam opened to 71M OS-C-J, so being 20% below that across the board would be 57M, puts 100 WW in some jeopardy.   
 

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32 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

This is dead on arrival territory 

they can always blame coronavirus. :Gaga:

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15 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Well a few days ago Deadline was on:

50-55 DOM

60-70 OS  

 

Now Deadline OS OW estimates are a bit... so-so. It’s possible that a well-informed range at the time would have been 80-90, and so even coming in below with like 65 locks up a global 100. But their range could be too high too, in which case 100 would be a goner.  

 

If we take their ranges as is, then I think it’s quite possible for DOM to do just ~40 (5x8 or 4.7x8.5 or smth). Then OS could come in just 5% below the deadline low end vs 20% DOM and we’d be missing 100M global open.    
 

Another way to look at it is that Shazam opened to 71M OS-C-J, so being 20% below that across the board would be 57M, puts 100 WW in some jeopardy.   
 

Just did a quick read through this thread and it seems like it’s presales are below that of Shazam pretty much everywhere. I hope that WOM can help it get a decent total but it seems like unless domestic over performs on OW then an opening less than Shazam (even without China) is pretty much happening. Hopefully the good reviews can give it the bump it needs domestically. My biggest fear though is the good reviews won’t give it that big of a push similar to how good reviews didn’t give Shazam that big of a push either. I guess we shall find out soon enough. 

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Good reviews alone don't boost a movie, if people aren't that interested to begin with. 

 

Sure, there are many people interested, but I see no average joe talking about it. Suicide Squad's marketing was insane. Even my grandpa ( who barely watches movies ) was talking about it.

 

 

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Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

Good reviews alone don't boost a movie, if people aren't that interested to begin with. 

 

Sure, there are many people interested, but I see no average joe talking about it. Suicide Squad's marketing was insane. Even my grandpa ( who barely watches movies ) was talking about it.

 

 


There's a bubble online and even studios bought into it. Reviews matter when a movie is high profile. It's not the other way around. Reviews won't make a movie high profile.

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It also depends on what the reviews highlight. not everything that reviews think is a must-see element is really a must-see for GA. Whatever they highlighted about Shazam clearly didn't have essential viewing effect. we'll see how BoP goes.

Edited by Valonqar

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3 hours ago, Nova said:

I wouldn’t call a movie that’s looking to open north of $100M WW DOA. But as I mentioned in its main thread, this movie’s BO will depend on WOM now since WB didn’t do a good job of marketing it. Seems like presales all over, not just in the USA, are below that of Shazam! which imo is inexcusable with a film starring Harley Quinn. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it makes less than 100M OW WW with results like that.

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

they can always blame coronavirus. :Gaga:

They'll blame evil white males as always with those movies.

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I don't like the direction  BoP's box office is looking to go but if anything this further  proves that marketing & IP power is way stronger & more important than a movie's quality and audience reception. 

 

Suicide Squad made 740M because of how well it was advertised (despite the film being so-so) and Birds Of Prey is looking to make less than half of that.  

 

we've also seen it happen with Venom against Shazam.

 

 

 

 

 

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I've seen all sorts of marketing and ads for BOP. It's not marketing if it underperforms. It is because there isn't much interest

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Just now, John Marston said:

I've seen all sorts of marketing and ads for BOP. It's not marketing if it underperforms. It is because there isn't much interest

I have to agree with this, I really don’t feel like the marketing has been bad for this movie. I can’t speak for anyone else but i thought more people would be interested in seeing Harley again after SS. I know the weekend isn’t over yet so things can still be “fine“ but presales are lower then I expected as well. 

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3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I've seen all sorts of marketing and ads for BOP. It's not marketing if it underperforms. It is because there isn't much interest

 

Well it depend on what the marketing was giving to work it, Suicide Squad had a one line resume possible:

 

Band of misfit criminal is put together to carry an important mission together for the goverment.

or

Think DC darker version of Guardian of the Galaxy

 

Maybe that wasn't possible for this movie, but with what I saw from the marketing I am not sure how I will describe that movie in a sentence (or even with a paragraph), I have some "who" but no idea what it is about, what will be the goals, etc... and cannot attach it to a well known archetype easily either. That is not necessarily an issue if it look great but wihtout it, they are not the easiest sale.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Firepower said:

They'll blame evil white males as always with those movies.

They don’t usually have any financial impact though lol

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Unfortunately this will suffer in Asia where the coronavirus is active - countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong,Thailand, Indonesia and Philipines are all looking at their respective worst weekends of the year last weekend at the box office; everyone is staying home and avoiding the cinemas - fear of coronavirus; especially Avoiding in a room with strangers for 2 hours.

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34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

They don’t usually have any financial impact though lol

FilmTwitter? It's true, I'd go even further and say if you try really hard to appeal to filmtwitter by scaring general audience it rarely ends well. I feel like that's what happened with Birds. Something about it and its marketing was off for general audience and some fans.

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2 hours ago, Firepower said:

FilmTwitter? It's true, I'd go even further and say if you try really hard to appeal to filmtwitter by scaring general audience it rarely ends well. I feel like that's what happened with Birds. Something about it and its marketing was off for general audience and some fans.

And how was this movie marketed towards film Twitter? You keep speaking out of your ass lol. I doubt it's going below a 100 mil opening too. 

Edited by lorddemaxus

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