Weekend Thread: Friday #s - Onward 12.1, Invisible Man 4.3, Way Back 2.6 | Blame It On the Roni

[nghtvsn]

I'm looking forward to checking out Onward. Looked like a pretty original interesting story to me. The 2 million does sound kind of low though. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

Why would they do that? Is the movie bad?

 

You don't do that to a movie unless you think it's not getting good word of mouth. Critics are quite good for this one. No idea what's happening to WB...

It's an older skewing title which wouldn't benefit from previews. The Good Liar didn't have previews either IIRC

 

 

[Legion Again]

Look, clearly overall holdover gross is going to be a better guide than openers anyway. But with where tickets stood Wednesday night, and reception, a 39M debut would be a pretty clear sign of Covid impact to me. And please keep in mind that the first signs aren’t going to be a 50% slash or something, just 5-10% or so.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's an older skewing title which wouldn't benefit from previews. The Good Liar didn't have previews either IIRC

 

 

The Kitchen, The Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn, and Richard Jewell didn't have them either. It's what they do when they're expecting a movie to make little (they probably assumed the same would happen to The Way Back even though reviews are good and Affleck has proven to be a draw in the right movie in the past).

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Look, clearly overall holdover gross is going to be a better guide than openers anyway. But with where tickets stood Wednesday night, and reception, a 39M debut would be a pretty clear sign of Covid impact to me. And please keep in mind that the first signs aren’t going to be a 50% slash or something, just 5-10% or so.

I think (as long as theaters are not closed) we will see very minor decline because of covid impact even when it spreads more cities. of course im assuming this decline is because of people just not willing to go the movies because of fear of getting infected. and not because theaters are closed or anything

 

if theaters in the states start closing down then yeah we will see a real impact imo. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by RealLyre
word

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

The Kitchen, The Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn, and Richard Jewell didn't have them either. It's what they do when they're expecting a movie to make little (they probably assumed the same would happen to The Way Back even though reviews are good and Affleck has proven to be a draw in the right movie in the past).

Affleck's last non superhero film was Live by Night which bombed so I don't blame WB for being cautious. It's a low budget film which probably will earn its keep from streaming and TV airings. 

[grey ghost]

+40 is fine for this. It didn't even look like a Pixar movie. It looks like another Shrek knock off.

 

Under 35 might be an indication of coronavirus fears.

[keysersoze123]

Fell bang in the middle of the range. Thankfully MTC did not over index as much as Sonic did but it did not behave like Call of the Wind. 

 

OD is looking like 10-11m to me. But its really early. Let us see where things are this evening. 

[narniadis]

Cant say I am not a tad disappointed with 2m... 🤷‍♂️ and yes, I get all the usual stuff and would normally be the one reminding about time of year, originality, etc.... but I had hoped it would do better short term since long term is a big ? 

 

Oh well, lets clear 40m+ and see what happens reminds me of when Chicken Little opened and 40m while large was also a disappointment (for the time frame). 

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fell bang in the middle of the range. Thankfully MTC did not over index as much as Sonic did but it did not behave like Call of the Wind. 

 

OD is looking like 10-11m to me. But its really early. Let us see where things are this evening. 

What would be a good Sat bump from true Fri?

 

Edit (updating based on @keyser's reply to this post):

02

11 (13 od)

19.25 (+75%)

13.50 (-30%)

= 45.75 ow

Edited March 6, 2020 by a2k

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

What would be a good Sat bump from true Fri?

 

Guessing

02

09 (11 od)

17 (+89%)

11 (-35%)

= 39 ow

I meant 10-11m true friday. I am thinking 60-70% bump tomorrow and 30% drop on Sunday. Family movies have good holds even during March Sundays. Let us see how things go. I am not taking any COVID-19 impact for now. 

[Madhuvan]

Just want to leave this message before I start trashing this box office run.. 

 

Onward is very touching movie. The ending made me very emotional. Very beautiful message. 

Tom Holland has done fantastic voice work. 

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

What would be a good Sat bump from true Fri?

 

Guessing

02

09 (11 od)

17 (+89%)

11 (-35%)

= 39 ow

Keyser looks at True Friday. That 10-11 excludes previews

[TMP]

$45m would be great for this

[Krissykins]

54 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's an older skewing title which wouldn't benefit from previews. The Good Liar didn't have previews either IIRC

 

 

44 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Kitchen, The Goldfinch, Motherless Brooklyn, and Richard Jewell didn't have them either. It's what they do when they're expecting a movie to make little (they probably assumed the same would happen to The Way Back even though reviews are good and Affleck has proven to be a draw in the right movie in the past).

Neither did Fantasy Island lol

9 minutes ago, TMP said:

$45m would be great for this

That would be the third worst Pixar opening, no? 
 

It would only beat Toy Story $29m (Without 25 years of inflation) and Good Dinosaur ($39m). 
 

Hard to spin $45m for this as “great”. 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It would only beat Toy Story $29m (Without 25 years of inflation) and Good Dinosaur ($39m). 
 

Hard to spin $45m for this as “great”. 

TBF It's their first Spring release, it's uncharted territory for them. 

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

TBF It's their first Spring release, it's uncharted territory for them. 

Lol it begins... surprised the weather isn’t getting brought into it too

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

I find it weird that Spongebob didn't come out with a trailer to attach to Onward. I think it might move.

I know that's a little off topic but the SB thread hardly gets any activity.

[RealLyre]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

That would be the third worst Pixar opening, no?
 

It would only beat Toy Story $29m (Without 25 years of inflation) and Good Dinosaur ($39m). 
 

Hard to spin $45m for this as “great”. 

You don’t need to spin a number that’s in the tracking range,  it’s only bad if it does sub 40M or 35M 

[keysersoze123]

FYI morning PS update

MTC1 - overall 4523 shows 47148/852935 690978.94 578804.58 post 6PM 2153 shows 29108/414060 463716.08 380114.14

MTC2 - overall 4381 shows 47290/696152 502170.27 401219.08 post 6PM 1684 shows 23668/275332 292078.40 207226.89

 

Not bad increase from yesterday night. MTC2 looks like over indexing. As I said earlier looking at 10-11m true friday.