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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

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https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-space-jam-a-new-legacy-escape-room-2-weekend-box-office-1234794452/

 

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Sony launched its horror sequel Escape Room: Tournament of Champions early yesterday at 3PM making $1.2M in previews at 2,382 theaters.

 

What’s the comp here? Given the funkiness of the pandemic we can only look at recent genre stats, and the nearest title is Universal/Blumhouse’s The Forever Purge which did $1.33M in Thursday previews at 2,550 theaters from showtimes which started at 7PM. Granted, Escape Room 2 is PG-13 and Forever Purge is R, respectively catering to two different demos: females under 25 and guys over 25.  A Quiet Place Part II‘s Thursday ($4.8M) is too big a brand, and New Line didn’t hold previews for Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Deadline will not budge from both Black Widow wins the weekend and Space Jam 2 makes under $20M...they are either gonna look brilliant or stubborn in about 24 hours...

 

Black Widow at $4.9M Thurs is not a great sign for it keeping the win:)...

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I think depend on the SAT drop of SJ2 if any. PS occupancy are too high to get 3x PSm. I think $8-9M OD may be it for SJ2.

 

Unless SJ2 go 9+ on Friday I think BW is winning weekend

 

 

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I think 9+ is happening for sure. There was an issue with MTC1 $ value for shows with ticket price like 8.89. I fixed it and so average ticket price is not as bad as I put it. BW will be down 70%+ today from last friday. 

 

That said SJ2 could be frontloaded and that should help BW. Also showcount for SJ2 is low and its family audience who would rather watch it on HBO Max. Let us see how things go. Only thing for sure is SJ is winning friday comfortably. Current ticket sales levels have SJ2 > 3x BW 2nd friday. 

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

$1.2m gets it to $11.5m with The Forever Purge’s multiplier. 
 

Solid. Budget was $15m. 

What about starting it at 3pm? Wouldn’t that add extra showing a bit, hell, it’s almost a full day rather than a preview.

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Now that Canada is mostly open (albeit under capacity restrictions), an interesting way to test how much of an effect HBO Max has is to compare the Canadian BO to the domestic BO. Canada typically accounts for 10-11%(?). If WB titles have a significantly higher share in Canada than usual, where HBO Max is unavailable, then maybe we could conclude that it has a significant effect. 
 

@charlie Jatinder thoughts?

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10 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What about starting it at 3pm? Wouldn’t that add extra showing a bit, hell, it’s almost a full day rather than a preview.

Yeh I thought Purge would be reasonable since it had a big Sunday drop because of the holiday. Thought that might balance out. 
 

Hoping for over $10m though. 

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If Escape Room 2 follows the first, looks like 3.9-4M Friday and 9.5M for the weekend. I guess that’s... ok?

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7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If Escape Room 2 follows the first, looks like 3.9-4M Friday and 9.5M for the weekend. I guess that’s... ok?

January vs July could make a difference. 
 

Hoping for $5m Friday 

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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

$1.2m gets it to $11.5m with The Forever Purge’s multiplier. 
 

Solid. Budget was $15m. 

When did Forever Purge start previews? This started at 3pm, which would lower the multi.

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

When did Forever Purge start previews? This started at 3pm, which would lower the multi.

Films had bigger Sunday drops because of the holiday the weekend the Purge opened. So I’m guessing the few hours difference in previews could maybe balance out over the weekend. 

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Awful for Escape Room 2. People don't gonna back. Stop forcing them to do otherwise.

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43 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

When did Forever Purge start previews? This started at 3pm, which would lower the multi.

 

Purge was a 7pm start, as opposed to essentially a full day of previews for ER2. I'd be surprised with a Friday over 4m inc previews.

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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Isn't WB doing VOD for Max releases in Canada.

 

I guess, but there is illegal piracy impact too but yeah some indication sure.

Space Jam it is still being offered as a premium rental and also being released in theatres. I don’t know about future movies though. 

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I think SJ2 wins Friday but whether it wins the weekend remains to be seen. As others pointed out, Saturday is now in BW favor. 

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

January vs July could make a difference. 
 

Hoping for $5m Friday 

Would be the other way around. Previews are usually stronger in the summers than in January.

 

Honestly I think even 4M could be a stretch. Thinking it’ll end up with 3.8-3.9

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3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think SJ2 wins Friday but whether it wins the weekend remains to be seen. As others pointed out, Saturday is now in BW favor. 

Is Saturday in BW's favor? Assuming 8 mil Friday for BW and 13 mil for Space Jam 2, an average 20% increase for the former and 10% drop for the latter would still put Space Jam 2 ahead of BW.

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