Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[Eric Prime]

Oh we're not doing this revisionist stuff here. All of y'all were saying this was going to be a megabomb of epic proportions. Everybody was saying that the film was doomed forever because of HBO Max. But now despite all the stuff going against it, we're suddenly about to poo-poo on an opening that most of y'all would say would be above average pre-pandemic? I know part of the reason is because the legs will be nonexistent (seriously, Jason Kilar has no excuse to make Dune and Matrix exceptions), but give me a break.

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

People claim this would be a colossal bomb for years without any significant reason and we have to accept. Now it's possible to do over 40M despite the pandemic and streaming release and we can't celebrate it's success?

 

I'm not even disagreeing with you, i know it didn't reach it's full potential, i know HBO Max is the one to blame. At the same time we can't do nothing about that, only celebrate that despite all this it's pulling great numbers (when you consider the situation).

 

 

First, HBO max is their own wrongdoing. If Dune hit 5.1m under Delta wave, I am ok to call it a good number since pandemic situation is really beyond their control and it is an exogenous factor. But now it is HBO max, an endogenous factor that lead to this 5.1m. and worst of all, I have to listen to this shits like below!

https://www.thewrap.com/we-were-their-lifeline-why-warnermedia-ceo-jason-kilar-believes-hbo-max-saved-theaters/ 

 

Quote

‘We Were Their Lifeline': Why WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar Believes HBO Max Saved Theaters

 

Just when you think Trump said he save America is a bold statement. 

[Cmasterclay]

14 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Oh we're not doing this revisionist stuff here. All of y'all were saying this was going to be a megabomb of epic proportions. Everybody was saying that the film was doomed forever because of HBO Max. But now despite all the stuff going against it, we're suddenly about to poo-poo on an opening that most of y'all would say would be above average pre-pandemic? I know part of the reason is because the legs will be nonexistent (seriously, Jason Kilar has no excuse to make Dune and Matrix exceptions), but give me a break.

Agreed. I'll call myself out - I don't think this was going to be a "bomb" pre-pandemic but I can't imagine predicting really any higher than this. It's a long, slow hard sci-fi movie based on a relatively niche 1960s property with lots of names but no true star.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Cmasterclay

[Barnack]

I can imagine theater saying that, january to May they were by far the biggest distributor I think.

[charlie Jatinder]

WB did save cinemas. No doubt in that. They released films in theaters when no one else did and led the way.

 

$35-40M is very good start for Dune. If you were expecting this to do $200M (full run) in normal times, that's case of being bad at box office predictions/expectations.

 

Dune may be least impacted day and date release film IMO. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Prime]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Agreed. I'll call myself out - I don't think this was going to be a "bomb" pre-pandemic but I can't imagine predicting real any higher than this. It's a long, slow hard sci-fi movie based on a relatively niche 1960s property with lots of names but no true star.

I know I have my biases, but in its old December '20 date, I strongly believed in Tron: Legacy numbers, both in opening and total, was a decent possibility for this, even though everybody else said otherwise. The starrier cast would have also probably helped the movie perform better OS than Tron too. 450-500M WW would be stunning for a franchise starter like this, and with it supposed to reach 300M now, where everybody else was saying it would never reach, I don't think we should just go all "oh it's not that great" for this.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

WB did save cinemas. No doubt in that. They released films in theaters when no one else did and led the way.

 

$35-40M is very good start for Dune. If you were expecting this to do $200M (full run) in normal times, that's case of being bad at box office predictions/expectations.

 

Dune may be least impacted day and date release film IMO. 

I do think GvK's opening made other studios move things to the Summer, so they definitly helped in that regard, but c'mon lmao.

[M37]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm guessing its PLF share was only 50% or so based off the IMAX numbers, so maybe it won't be as frontloaded as we expect?

Venom had just 32% for its Thursday from all PLFs, while BR2049 had 20% of its Thursday gross ($800K/$4M) come from IMAX alone (both per old Deadline articles)

Dune was 30% from IMAX alone, and as you suggest, probably around 50% for all PLFs

 

I'm also not sure I buy that 64% PLF figure put out by Deadline for Venom's OW, given the Thursday ratio and the figures cited here:

Imax, PLFs and 3D are repping 64% of the pic’s gross with Cinemark’s XD seeing the strongest October performance of all-time. Imax reports that Venom 2 drew $9.6M WW, $8.6M of that from 402 screens stateside and the large format exhibitor’s best domestic opening during the pandemic and third-best ever for October.

If IMAX was just $8.6 million of the $90 OW (<10%), that means all other PLFs combined made over $40 million, 5x as much - that doesn't seem realistic IMO

 

tl;dr - Dune is skewing far more to PLF than we've seen in quite a while, and to me, that suggests a more frontloaded pattern

[MrPink]

My expectation pre-pandemic for Dune has been Alita numbers with a higher DOM skew.

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Agreed. I'll call myself out - I don't think this was going to be a "bomb" pre-pandemic but I can't imagine predicting really any higher than this. It's a long, slow hard sci-fi movie based on a relatively niche 1960s property with lots of names but no true star.

About being niche, when it comes to major book franchises that haven't been adapted in decades, Dune has to be one of the biggest properties out there. Sales of the Dune novel prior to the release of this movie are fairly comparable to those of other major franchises prior to their big, modern cinematic adaptations (like LOTR, which, like Dune, had an initial film adaptation around the same time). Maybe its bigger in Switzerland where I live than in the US, but lets not downplay the success of the books (and overall awareness of the property) prior to this film's release (just look at trailer views on YT, the first trailer is sitting at 37m, that's not niche awareness/interest)

Also, no true star? A lot of names is right, I would argue it has one of the most stacked casts of any major theatrical release all year 

The film has a lot going for it and it shows, I just can't buy the niche property/no stars argument. People are hungry for big IP and strong ensembles, both of which this film delivers 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Justin4125

[Justin4125]

I would also point out that the film's performance supports the strength of the IP. The pattern of its performance (very strong in mature markets and weaker in emerging) is highly consistent with other successful adaptations of book series. With a little more digging, I'm sure I can show that the trends in its BO performance largely follow the geographic dispersion of its book sales 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Justin4125

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am more than satisfied with Dune's opening considering the HBO Max release. 

[xiazhi]

Considering TSS is r-rated, 5.1m is not good.

[famicommander]

1 minute ago, xiazhi said:

Considering TSS is r-rated, 5.1m is not good.

The Suicide Squad is a special case.

 

I'm not sure why people are continuously ignoring the fact that TSS was set up above all others to have weak legs due to HBO Max. The lead character of TSS has an ongoing adult animated series on HBO Max. Not to mention HBO Max also got WW1984, Snyder's Justice League, Doom Patrol (ongoing series), Titans (ongoing series), Young Justice (ongoing animated series), and instant access to each new DC Comics direct-to-video animated film.

 

Pretty much the entire DC Comics TV/film fanbase was already subscribed to HBO Max before TSS hit theaters. Warner folded an entire DC-exclusive streaming service directly into HBO Max.

[Eric Prime]

 

[MCKillswitch123]

8 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Considering TSS is r-rated, 5.1m is not good.

 

I mean, The Suicide Squad is also a CBM and a sequel to a 330m DOM, 700m WW movie (that nobody liked, granted) + Birds of Prey which is sort of a cult movie(?). Not exactly a fair comparison with Dune, which is a novel adaptation and fanbase-driven but is still technically new material for a lot of people.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Agreed. I'll call myself out - I don't think this was going to be a "bomb" pre-pandemic but I can't imagine predicting really any higher than this. It's a long, slow hard sci-fi movie based on a relatively niche 1960s property with lots of names but no true star.

I third this agreement.

To be honest, as one of the people who thought Dune was doing around BR2049/Alita, the fact that this is doing a probable 40m OW is nothing to complain about or claim megabomb. Dune is doing better than I thought.

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2021/10/dune-china-uk-korea-opening-international-box-office-1234860686/

 

Quote

Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic Dune hit China today with an estimated RMB 42M ($6.5M) on 28,274 screens and a 34.3% share of the market. While we do not yet have a social score, Friday’s estimate would portend a weekend in the $20M+ neighborhood as we noted coming into the session. Handled in China by Legendary East (via Wanda), the Warner Bros/Legendary title is also opening domestically this frame (where it did $5.1M in Thursday previews), as well as in 39 other markets including the UK, Korea, Brazil and Mexico. The current international box office cume, not including China or other Friday takes, is approximately $137M through Thursday.

 

In China, Dune has a 7.7 critics rating on Douban and is the first major Hollywood movie to enter the market since Disney/20th Century Studios’ Free Guy back in late August. Ticketing platform Maoyan, which regularly updates its estimates, is currently predicting a full run of $31M for Dune, which would handily surpass Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049 and Arrival. The Timothée Chalamet-starrer will face competition next weekend when James Bond heads to the Middle Kingdom in No Time To Die. Early word out of China today is that IMAX screens are accounting for 21% of the opening day total on Dune. The format has been excelling in China overall, but is over-indexing with Dune in other markets.

 

Elsewhere, Dune released in Korea on Wednesday and has now cumed an estimated $1.4M through today. It is facing a soft market as well as the very strong performance of Sony’s Venom 2: Let There Be Carnage. Dune is playing on 17 IMAX screens in Korea which delivered 21% of the opening day grosses on Wednesday, compared with 5%-6% for Shang-Chi And The Legend Of The Ten Rings and No Time To Die.

 

In the UK, the Dune cume through Thursday is $1.5M which includes Monday previews. Opening day Thursday came in just 6% below No Time To Die on the same day in the market. IMAX has 50 screens playing Dune which were good for 21% of the opening Thursday, versus 8% for No Time To Die and 9% for Shang-Chi.

 

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

A decent enough day but still off the pace of NTTD locally.  Plugged in some rudimentary guesstimates for what SMG is capping at, otherwise the comps would be worse.  About 10% more PLFs locally for Dune versus NTTD (that was 43.77% of all tickets sold), and it might be underperforming here so let's call for an even 5m +/- .3m.

 

CBMs would suggest something lower, but I reckon there aren't quite as many children's tickets being sold for Dune as there are for the non-R rated CBMs so I'll use NTTD plus a smidge. 

 

Wish it was higher, but data is what the data is.

 

 

 

 

 

(make sure to start it over to see an entirely awesome video 👍)
 

Also, join me in the victory dance, @TalismanRing, @Menor, and @charlie Jatinder who all called 5m as well!!!

Edited October 22, 2021 by Porthos

[Maggie]

wow good number. Dune would have been a 100M opener before the pandemic