Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not always on the day and date films - especially for those with fan rush...

$5, $11, $10, $6 is possible...

Maybe but TSS was a fan-loaded film released in the summer and stayed flat on Saturday. I see Dune having an increase, even if a small one. 

[Derpity]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

11-12M true FRI would be great, but since it's early i think Deadline could be lowballing a bit.

 

Anyway, even with 11M should get 37-38M

 

11-12m true Friday would definitely not be great lol. Most you can say is it is "okay" considering simultaneous release.

[Krissykins]

In some perfect casting news: 

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, Elessar said:

What is Deadline smoking? 17m friday would give a 40m weekend.

DL had Black Widow at 95m+ off nearly 40m , so being cautious

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

WB's simultaneous HBO Max release strategy helped cinemas during the height of the pandemic in the first half of this year. Ultimately though for the 2nd half of this year cinemas needed theatrical only releases to prove it was viable and that's where Disney does deserve credit with Shang-Chi pretty much convincing other studios not to abandon 2021 with their theatrical only releases.

 

I've thought all along that the big mistake for WB wasn't going day-and-date, but locking in day-and-date for over a year.

 

Half a year then re-evaluate on a month by month (or quarter by quarter) basis would have been more than fine.

 

Yes, I understand that they had other concerns in propping up HBO Max (same for Disney and Disney Plus for that matter).  And I also understand that there are a lot of people who are very happy that day-and-date is a thing right now (still having well over 1k deaths per day in the US on the 7 day rolling average, you know).

 

But if WB had cared about theatrical as much as some folks think they did, they should have only locked themselves into a six month plan instead of a 13 month one.

 

Ultimately two things can be true.  They can be one of the few distributors who cared about theaters by having day-and-date during late 2020/early 2021 while showing that they badly miss-stepped by locking themselves into a rigid plan that might not have been warranted by changing circumstances.

[CJohn]

22 minutes ago, Derpity said:

Friday Midday Update: Currently, Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Dune is seeing a Friday between $16M-$17M, including last night’s previews, which means an opening between $30M-$32M. While rival studios have it much higher, understand that the unpredictable nature of the gross is deciphering how frontloaded its Friday is; as well as the HBO Max availability of it all. Imax ticket sales are leading the charge for Dune, looking at a 22%-24% share of the weekend B.O. Anything above Godzilla vs. Kong‘s $31.6M opening weekend means it’s a record domestic debut for a Warner Bros. movie during the pandemic, and the top start for a day-and-date theatrical HBO Max release. Anything north of $32.8M means it’s a record opening for director Denis Villeneuve.

 

Solid PostTrak for Dune so far with 4 stars out of 5. Males, natch, are out in force at 62% and 72% over 25. Diversity demos are 59% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 6% African American, 9% Asian and 6% other.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/10/dune-weekend-box-office-1234860683/

Day and date kills another one

[CJohn]

What should I do next for my avatar? Sad Affleck is in fact back, so... what do want to bring back next to sweet BOT?

[Jamiem]

38 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Anyways, French Dispatch will start in about 5 minutes. I’m truly blessed that I get two Timothee classics through two days on the big screen. Life is good again! 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰

Let me know what you think of this once you get out. The trailer looks so damn good (it isn't out here until December) but I want to hear your thoughts  

[TwoMisfits]

Dune demo breakdown for opening day from Deadline...(Edit - just realized it was in the 1st post, but it's still worth highlighting:) - FYI - This demo does not bode well for late night walk ups...

 

"Solid PostTrak for Dune so far with 4 stars out of 5. Males, natch, are out in force at 62% and 72% over 25. Diversity demos are 59% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 6% African American, 9% Asian and 6% other."

 

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[TwoMisfits]

And Deadline's weekend estimates for the other movies...

 

"In second place it’s Universal/Miramax/Blumhouse’s Halloween Kills with a $5M second Friday, -78%, and a second weekend of $15.8M at 3,727 locations, -68% for a ten day of $74.4M. The 2018 version of Halloween fell 59% in its second weekend.

 

MGM/UAR’s No Time to Die is third in its third weekend with $4M today, -44%, a third weekend of $14M at 3,807 cinemas, -41% and a running total by end of Sunday of $122.1M.

Fourth belongs to Sony/Marvel’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage with a fourth Friday of $2.6M, -43%, weekend of $9.5M, -42% and running total of $182.2M, currently booked at 3,513 sites.

Disney/20th Century Studio’s Ron Gone Wrong at 3,560 theaters is seeing an estimated first Friday of $1.9M for a first weekend of $6M."

[Nikostar]

If deadline is right then that is not good

[CJohn]

Halloween and Venom are gonna miss the 100M and 200M marks, respectively, won't they?

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

And it flopped. The lower budget made it look way worse and even those who liked the original (including me, one of my favorite action movies) could tell what a downgrade it was from the trailer. 

I think a Pacific Rim sequel was a bad idea to begin with. Evne if they had spent what they did on the original, it would not have  done well at the box office. The original simply was not a big enough hit to justify a sequel, period.

[ViewerAnon]

I wish Deadline was consistent with their PostTrak reports. Sometimes they report a score out of 5, sometimes they just report the positivity rate.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Halloween and Venom are gonna miss the 100M and 200M marks, respectively, won't they?

 

Halloween might, but if Venom goes $9.5M with a 42% drop this weekend, it's less than $18M away, so it's a sure bet for $200M...

[MrPink]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Halloween and Venom are gonna miss the 100M and 200M marks, respectively, won't they?

 

After Spectre, do we doubt Sony's ability to drag this past 200m.

[dudalb]

59 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

By taking it from the original creators and putting it in the hands of some b-tiers, different cast and everything. Not that the original was some masterpiece. This will not happen to Dune.

I agree, but I think , if box office trends hold, the second part of Dune is going to be a borderline decision,and I am sure the idea of "do we have to spend as much on part 2 as we did on part 1" will come up.

look, I love the novels and hope part 2 gets made. But I  try to be ruthlessly realsitic when it comes to the business side, and not let my personal likes and dislikes come into play. I think it will be up in the air for some time if Dune Part 2 will be made, and what the budget will be.

And Del Toro was right in walking away from  PR 2 when he saw the budget.I think Pacific rim was one of Del Toro's weakest films,but think he was right inseeing a film could not be made on a low budget.

One problem is that, (and I don't think this qualifies as a spoiler) that like LOTR, the really big, expnesive stuff  happens in the last part of the book.

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Halloween might, but if Venom goes $9.5M with a 42% drop this weekend, it's less than $18M away, so it's a sure bet for $200M...

 

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

After Spectre, do we doubt Sony's ability to drag this past 200m.

It will collapse really hard after Halloween and with Eternals opening but we will see how that goes.

[AdrianL]

Even if it has TSS kind of holds it'll be over $32m lol. Hopefully over $35m

[ViewerAnon]

Between Halloween falling on Sunday and Universal-adjacent LAST NIGHT IN SOHO opening next week (not that studios would ever give money from an opener to a holdover...), HALLOWEEN KILLS could in theory have a decent enough hold that it can be dragged over the $100 million mark. Seems like a long-shot though.