The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[motionpic05]

NOPE tickets still haven't come out in Canada yet. 

[ZackM]

 

Thor got a nice bump today.  DSitMoM comps at about 25M right now, but Thor has been gaining ground and will likely continue to do so.

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	18	0	10	15	13
Seats Added	2,406	0	651	1,487	2,107
Seats Sold	7,431	4,844	4,623	4,143	4,859
6/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,354	206,969	1,100,957	18.80%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	10	72	279	561
ATP
$17.14

[keysersoze123]

I actually expected more considering reactions were out yesterday night. let us see how things go rest of the weekend. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I haven't checked Minions because I do not care nor assume it'll be big. But I just took a glance and... yikes.

 

THURSDAY

Cinemark: (4)

XD: 2 (0), 435 (2), 710 (0), 945 (1) = (3)

3 (1), 535 (0), 810 (0) = (1)

AMC: (35)

IMAX: 505 (3), 735 (5) = (8)

DOLBY: 435 (4), 705 (20) = (24)

3D: 405 (0), 635 (1) = (1)

335 (0), 535 (0), 605 (2) = (2)

 

FRIDAY

Cinemark: (8)

XD: 11 (0), 140 (0), 420 (0), 7 (2) = (2)

1150 (0), 230 (0), 510 (6), 750 (0) = (6)

AMC: (34)

IMAX: 405 (6), 635 (5) = (11)

DOLBY: 335 (1), 605 (16) = (17)

3D: 505 (1), 735 (0), 1005 (0) = (1)

305 (0), 435 (0), 705 (5), 935 (0) = (5)

 

I don't have proper comps since I only did Lightyear week by week basis but this looks exceedingly less. 

 

AMC flat on Thursday and Friday. But I'll still take under 50m as of now. Wouldn't be surprised by high 30s/low 40s.. also wouldn't be shocked by mid30s until this thing suddenly takes off

[Porthos]

On 6/23/2022 at 11:53 PM, Porthos said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	25051	31600	6549	20.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	41.50		511	15779		0/298	20647/36426	43.32%		28183	23.24%		20.75m
Batman	160.24		164	4087		0/285	31380/35467	11.52%		11757	55.70%		34.61m
MoM	62.98		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	31.01%		22.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	239.20		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		9196	71.22%		33.06m
L&T (adj)			170	5949		0/188	20354/26303	22.62%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         637/4831  [13.19% sold]
Matinee:    295/2566  [11.50% | 4.50% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	228	24786	31600	6814	21.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

265

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.10		406	16185		0/308	21367/37552	43.10%		28183	24.18%		21.05m
Batman	160.75		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	57.96%		34.72m
MoM	64.19		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	32.27%		23.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	241.38		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		9196	74.10%		33.36m
L&T (adj)			240	6189		0/188	20114/26303	23.53%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        676/4831  [13.99% sold]
Matinee:    318/2566  [12.39% | 4.67% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/23/2022 at 11:55 PM, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	24544	25372	828	3.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	56
Total Seats Sold Today	126

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	112.50		57	736		0/116	16620/17356	4.24%		9196	9.00%		5.06m
Sonic 2	90.59		99	914		0/92	12023/12937	7.07%		5847	14.16%		5.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        68/5238  [1.30% sold]
Matinee:    46/2536  [1.81% | 5.56% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	24355	25372	1017	4.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

189

 

T-6 Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	127.44		62	798		0/115	16561/17359	4.60%		9196	11.06%		5.73m
Sonic 2	97.41		130	1044		0/92	11893/12937	8.07%		5847	17.39%		6.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        79/5238  [1.51% sold]
Matinee:    68/2536  [2.68% | 6.69% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/23/2022 at 12:12 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Thor 4	PLF	57	3,387	3,387	11,672	29.02%	$15.95	$54,008.75
		Standard	87	1,775	1,775	11,439	15.52%	$11.92	$21,155.57
	Thor 4 Total		144	5,162	5,162	23,111	22.34%	$14.56	$75,164.32

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Thor 4	N	103	4,178	4,178	16,531	25.27%	$15.21	$63,567.24
		Y	41	984	984	6,580	14.95%	$11.79	$11,597.08
	Thor 4 Total		144	5,162	5,162	23,111	22.34%	$14.56	$75,164.32

*New sales since Saturday*

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - No Way Home - .371x (18.54m)

 - DS2 - .54x (19.5m)

 

Just not the same early rush as the others.  Two weeks is plenty of time to grow though. 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-12	Thor 4	PLF	57	136	3,523	11,672	30.18%	$15.93	$56,106.25
		Standard	87	197	1,972	11,439	17.24%	$11.91	$23,482.47
	Total		144	333	5,495	23,111	23.78%	$14.48	$79,588.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-12	Thor 4	N	103	262	4,440	16,531	26.86%	$15.14	$67,211.14
		Y	41	71	1,055	6,580	16.03%	$11.73	$12,377.58
	Total		144	333	5,495	23,111	23.78%	$14.48	$79,588.72

*New sales since Thorsday*

 

Thor 4 T-12 comps

 - No Way Home - .387x (19.355m)

 - DS2 - .559x (20.12m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.67x (36.06m)

 

Not loving the pace, but I'm guessing (hoping) the weekend sales will provide a boost

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	PLF	14	843	843	3,074	27.42%	$14.14	$11,917.76
		Standard	67	1,597	1,597	7,549	21.16%	$10.67	$17,032.29
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Fri)	N	43	1,288	1,288	4,299	29.96%	$11.79	$15,181.36
		Y	32	255	255	3,140	8.12%	$9.08	$2,314.14
	Total		75	1,543	1,543	7,439	20.74%	$11.34	$17,495.50
T-0	Elvis (Fri)	N	38	1,475	1,475	4,921	29.97%	$13.22	$19,494.48
		Y	43	965	965	5,702	16.92%	$9.80	$9,455.57
	Total		81	2,440	2,440	10,623	22.97%	$11.86	$28,950.05

 

Ah the pains of not having any good comps.  Alas.   There was only one movie that comped Elvis true Thursday below 3m... JW3 (2.8m).  If we're looking at 600k of EA then this over-indexed in Santikos on scale with dinos.   Black Phone on the other hand under-indexed here. There were a few outliers with far fewer sales, but for the most part. 

 

Elvis Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .989x (11.48m)

 - TG2 - .289x (9.45m)

 - Batman - .248x (8.68m)

 - FB3 - .734x (6.1m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Black Phone Friday T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .625x (7.26m)

 - TG2 - .183x (5.98m)

 - Batman - .157x (5.49m)

 

 - FB3 - .464x (3.86m)

- JW3 - .164x (6.8m)

 

Adjusted comps

 

Elvis

 - Morbius - 8.29m

 - TG2 - 6.87m

 - Batman - 7.71m

 - FB3 - 4.28m

 - JW3 - 7.06m

 

Gonna take the average of these and go with 6.85m for true Friday

 

Black Phone

 - Morbius - 8.98m

 - TG2 - 7.19m

 - Batman - 7.21m

 - FB3 - 4.64m

 - JW3 - 7.65m

 

Without great comps, going with the average here too: 7.13m for true Friday.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	PLF	14	55	898	3,074	29.21%	$13.41	$12,039.24
		Standard	68	11	1,608	7,605	21.14%	$10.23	$16,456.81
	Total		82	66	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone (Sat)	N	43	742	742	4,309	17.22%	$11.95	$8,863.80
		Y	30	486	486	3,005	16.17%	$8.82	$4,284.36
	Total		73	1,228	1,228	7,314	16.79%	$10.71	$13,148.16
T-0	Elvis (Sat)	N	38	1,001	1,001	4,921	20.34%	$13.32	$13,337.41
		Y	44	1,505	1,505	5,758	26.14%	$10.07	$15,158.64
	Total		82	2,506	2,506	10,679	23.47%	$11.37	$28,496.05

 

Just gonna start off with a disclaimer again: I do not have good comps for these movies and this is a small sample size so take these numbers with a grain of salt.  If you want better representation then step up and start tracking another area!

 

Alright, back to business.  Elvis ATP has dropped a little with the majority of presales being for matinee shows.  I'm sure that's expected with the older crowd, but don't be surprised if we get a good early number for Elvis that doesn't come to fruition.  Black Phone only had a few PLF shows for previews, but none for the weekend.

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .28x (10.64m)

 - Batman - .219x (9.48m)

- JW3 - .162x (7.59m)

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - .137x (5.22m)

 - Batman - .107x (4.64m)

- JW3 - .079x (3.72m)

 

Comps adjusted by Friday comps ratios (using ECs latest estimates)

 

Elvis Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 8.17m

 - Batman - 7.92m

- JW3 - 8.09m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 8.1m

 

Black Phone Sat T-0 comps

 - TG2 - 6.33m

 - Batman - 6.14m

- JW3 - 6.27m

 

Prediction for Saturday: 6.25m

[LegendaryBen]

@katnisscinnaplexTHank you for your hard work as usual. I love your nickname. 2 questions:

1. Are you a fan of Hunger Games? 2nd one is the best in the series.

2. Is it possible Minions 2 will open worse than Lightyear with the way family sequels have underperformed?

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

@katnisscinnaplexTHank you for your hard work as usual. I love your nickname. 2 questions:

1. Are you a fan of Hunger Games? 2nd one is the best in the series.

2. Is it possible Minions 2 will open worse than Lightyear with the way family sequels have underperformed?

Huge fan of Hunger Games!  In the middle of a rewatch this week actually.  

 

As far as Minions, tbd.  I'll try to pick it up in Santikos soon, but I think it should be safe.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

DS2 went crazy for about a week starting on Monday, so Thor likely won't make up much ground against it then. It will need  better final day bumps to increase the comps further.

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I haven't checked Minions because I do not care nor assume it'll be big. But I just took a glance and... yikes.

 

THURSDAY

Cinemark: (4)

XD: 2 (0), 435 (2), 710 (0), 945 (1) = (3)

3 (1), 535 (0), 810 (0) = (1)

AMC: (35)

IMAX: 505 (3), 735 (5) = (8)

DOLBY: 435 (4), 705 (20) = (24)

3D: 405 (0), 635 (1) = (1)

335 (0), 535 (0), 605 (2) = (2)

 

FRIDAY

Cinemark: (8)

XD: 11 (0), 140 (0), 420 (0), 7 (2) = (2)

1150 (0), 230 (0), 510 (6), 750 (0) = (6)

AMC: (34)

IMAX: 405 (6), 635 (5) = (11)

DOLBY: 335 (1), 605 (16) = (17)

3D: 505 (1), 735 (0), 1005 (0) = (1)

305 (0), 435 (0), 705 (5), 935 (0) = (5)

 

I don't have proper comps since I only did Lightyear week by week basis but this looks exceedingly less. 

 

AMC flat on Thursday and Friday. But I'll still take under 50m as of now. Wouldn't be surprised by high 30s/low 40s.. also wouldn't be shocked by mid30s until this thing suddenly takes off

Yeah, I was checking the sales for next week yesterday at many popular locations and...they're not looking great, to put it kindly. Even Universal Orlando's theater is posting relatively soft sales given that's the one location where it would be destined to do gangbusters (Jurassic World was a presales hit there just weeks ago, unsurprisingly). Gonna need some nice walk-ups to shake the aura of impending underperformance.

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I was checking the sales for next week yesterday at many popular locations and...they're not looking great, to put it kindly. Even Universal Orlando's theater is posting relatively soft sales given that's the one location where it would be destined to do gangbusters (Jurassic World was a presales hit there just weeks ago, unsurprisingly). Gonna need some nice walk-ups to shake the aura of impending underperformance.

Minions doesn't strike me as a presale heavy movie but TBH the film will still be profitable even if it does say $60-65m OW

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Minions doesn't strike me as a presale heavy movie but TBH the film will still be profitable even if it does say $60-65m OW

All of the signs feel like they're pointing to an opening in the same area as Lightyear tbh (the 4-day should mean a higher opening overall even with a potentially depressed Monday due to 4th of July activities). A much better result for this movie than for that one due to the discrepancy in budget of course, but definitely an indication of how the mighty have fallen.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

All of the signs feel like they're pointing to an opening in the same area as Lightyear tbh (the 4-day should mean a higher opening overall even with a potentially depressed Monday due to 4th of July activities). A much better result for this movie than for that one due to the discrepancy in budget of course, but definitely an indication of how the mighty have fallen.

 

I think that Illumination and Chris Meledandri's MO of under $100m budgets have put them in a better position where they still make money even if a film is only a modest success.

 

 

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think that Illumination and Chris Meledandri's MO of under $100m budgets have put them in a better position where they still make money even if a film is only a modest success.

 

 

As long as Minions 2 doesn't fall below $100M domestically, it will still be a modest success.

[Jonwo]

Just now, LegendaryBen said:

As long as Minions 2 doesn't fall below $100M domestically, it will still be a modest success.

I'd be very surprised if Minions did under $100m domestic. 

 

 

[Tinalera]

Minions2

SW/Toronto Ontario T-6

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	329	23548	23877	0.0137
Fri	15	84	417	22197	22614	0.0184

 

Comp OD Friday w with thurs  (US/Canada and Canada only). And advisory note this is for 20 theatres in Ontario Only, so obviously not a be all end all.

 

Lightyear (US/CA) x1.409 at 20 (28 million)

Canada Only         X1.409 at .750 (1.4 Million)

 

Hopefully as I get more films done I can get more comps

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Tinalera
edited Lightyear for Minions2

[Eric Prime]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:32 AM, Eric Presley said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	316	27571	1.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

3.511x of Jungle Cruise T-7 (9.48M)

0.394x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-7 (2.46M)

1.057x of Lightyear T-7 (5.5M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	125	344	27571	1.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

2.991x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (8.07M)

0.370x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-6 (2.31M)

0.945x of Lightyear T-6 (4.91M)

[Eric Prime]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:37 AM, Eric Presley said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	5359	34527	15.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 175

 

Comp

0.377x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-14 (18.87M)

1.101x of The Batman T-14 (23.79M)

0.558x of Doctor Strange 2 T-14 (20.08M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	5588	34527	16.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 229

 

Comp

0.378x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-13 (18.9M)

1.124x of The Batman T-13 (24.27M)

0.573x of Doctor Strange 2 T-13 (20.62M)