The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

Paws of Fury Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
102	16,040	11	0.07%	$106	$9.64

 

Shall be worth having comps I guess. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13438	13695	257	1.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

4

 

T-18 Comps

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	37.41		48	687		0/92	13414/14101	4.87%		4407	5.79%		2.78m
TSS	95.90		9	268		0/81	13684/13952	1.92%		2352	10.93%		3.93m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3963  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/861  [0.81% | 2.72% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13423	13695	272	1.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

15

 

T-17 Comps

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	34.96		91	778		0/92	13323/14101	5.52%		4407	6.13%		2.60m
TSS	97.14		12	280		0/81	13672/13952	2.01%		2352	11.56%		3.98m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      48/3963  [1.21% sold]
Matinee:       8/861  [0.93% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	24142	33701	9559	28.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

590

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	206.68		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		9196	103.95%		28.57m
NWH	46.58		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		28183	33.92%		23.29m
MoM	66.60		844	14353		0/353	28327/42680	33.63%		21117	45.27%		23.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      1056/4831  [21.86% sold]
Matinee:    513/2566  [19.99% | 5.37% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	23592	33701	10109	30.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

550

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	198.45		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	109.93%		27.43m
NWH	47.13		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	35.87%		23.57m
MoM	65.69		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	47.87%		23.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       1156/4831  [23.93% sold]
Matinee:    551/2566  [21.47% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

It's like people had better things to do today than buy pre-sale tickets or sumthin.'  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited July 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	23592	33701	10109	30.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

550

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	198.45		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	109.93%		27.43m
NWH	47.13		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	35.87%		23.57m
MoM	65.69		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	47.87%		23.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       1156/4831  [23.93% sold]
Matinee:    551/2566  [21.47% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

It's like people had better things to do today than buy pre-sale tickets or sumthin.'  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

And let me get this out of the way...

 

 

============

 

FWIW, I would not be surprised to see the slack spread out over Tu/We/Th instead off it all piling in tomorrow.

 

Still.... just the messenger here, folks.  

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/3/2022 at 1:07 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-5 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	121,237	14,814	12.22%	$183,694	$12.40

 

+763. Another good day. Hoping for 1.5k day today.

 

Comps

0.589x of DSitMoM admits - $21.4M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
517	122,112	17,336	14.20%	$213,233	$12.30

 

+1523. Would be ehh normally but today being July 4th its fine. Now the all important period starts tomorrow. Should clear 3K+ day on Tuesday.

 

Comps

0.577x of DSitMoM admits - $20.9M

3.805x of Eternals admits - $36.1M

2.933x of Black Widow admits - $39.9M (adj for ON)

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
517	122,112	17,336	14.20%	$213,233	$12.30

 

+1523. Would be ehh normally but today being July 4th its fine. Now the all important period starts tomorrow. Should clear 3K+ day on Tuesday.

 

Comps

0.577x of DSitMoM admits - $20.9M

3.805x of Eternals admits - $36.1M

2.933x of Black Widow admits - $39.9M (adj for ON)

Expecting decent critic reception or is there no read on that?  I ignore all hte earl Disney approved comments we have thus far.   It also seems people ant-woke crowds is riled up over Portman's role and importance ala Cpt Marvel

[Borf the Borf]

On 6/28/2022 at 10:51 PM, M37 said:

Put a little bit of math behind this question. If you assume that Saturday was unaffected (which may be a flawed assumption and potential impacts may not be uniform across genres/audiences), here is estimated bump by day and total across the 4 day weekend (for films out at least 2 weeks)

 

July 4th Weekend 2016: Actual vs Saturday Drop Baseline Expectation
Title	Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	4-Day Total
Finding Dory	7.90%	0.00%	11.40%	73.90%	14.30%
Central Intelligence	5.70%	0.00%	27.40%	99.90%	19.70%
Conjuring 2	2.90%	0.00%	20.60%	29.30%	9.50%
Now You See Me 2	4.80%	0.00%	21.90%	83.20%	17.70%
X-Men Apocalypse	4.90%	0.00%	31.60%	86.60%	19.30%
TMNT	10.10%	0.00%	14.90%	86.30%	17.10%
Average	6.05%	0.00%	21.30%	76.53%	16.27%

 

Friday gets a small bump across the board, as more people have that day off, slightly better for family movies.  Sunday appears to be actually less favorable (smaller bump) to family movies (LY and Minions this year), but a bigger boost to adult films which have better nighttime numbers (so Black Phone, TGM, JWD and Elvis to some degree). Mon is a big boost for everything ... except a night-time heavy horror movie that now has to compete with the fireworks

 

 

 

Thanks little late getting back this but appreciated 

[M37]

22 hours ago, M37 said:

With the major caveat that a pre-holiday weekend could potentially affecting ticket buying patterns, going to go ahead and roll this out anyway. Based on my analysis of the data posted in the tracking threads, here are projected final totals for ticket sales for Thor L&T for some of the tracking samples:

Tracker	Market/Chain	Current	Projected	% Change	Final vs MoM
Eric	Philly	7,727	12,500	61.8%	$21.85
Inceptionzq	Denver	6,682	10,500	57.1%	$24.60
Inceptionzq	Megaplex	7,082	11,800	66.6%	$22.91
Inceptionzq	Drafthouse	16,925	27,000	59.5%	$30.02
Porthos	Sacto	9,559	15,000	56.9%	$25.57
ZackM	ALPHA	277,718	405,000	45.8%	$26.17
ZackM	ALPHA (Final)	277,718	475,000	71.0%	$26.34

 

NOTES: Now normally I would say a +/- 5% MOE on both ends, but in this specific case its probably as likely the projection undershoots by 10% than comes in over

 

Unless Drafthouse adds a whole lot more shows & seats, that projected sales figure won't verify, as it would be over 93% capacity of current allotment; even if the demand was there, limited supply would push people to other locations within those markets (Strange finished at 69% capacity, Thor is already at 60%)

 

Seeing most tracking samples on pace to converge by Thursday using this methodology leads me to believe there's something there. For official forecast purposes, will round up a bit, including a smallish bump in ATP since Dr Strange: Projected Thor L&T Thursday = $26.5M (+/- $1M)

 

Will follow up with a post-analysis on Friday, after all numbers are in. Happy Independence Day!

 

Alpha numbers revised 7/05

Quoting to note that Alpha numbers have been revised slightly.  Had made a minor adjustment to account for holiday effect, but for some reason didn't apply to Alpha on my sheet (thanks to @Menor Reborn for questioning it). Forecast remains the same

 

Updated preview chart. Going to take a pretty decent hook from here to get up to the $30M+ range some are expecting (hoping?) to see come Thursday

 

 

For an optimistic scenario, here would be the Alpha daily totals if Thor were to follow Batman's final days trajectory, with an added bump on Tuesday for post-holiday catch-up (though nothing in the data thusfar suggests this is impending)

 

T-2 = 338K (+44K)

T-1 = 388K (+50K)

T-1hr = 453.5K (+65.5K)

T-Final = 558K (+104.5K, +170K for last day)

 

 

[Mr Terrific]

Did you all catch the three TLT tickets I bought yesterday?

Did you?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

T-2 = 338K (+44K)

T-1 = 388K (+50K)

T-1hr = 453.5K (+65.5K)

T-Final = 558K (+104.5K, +170K for last day)

I am expecting/hoping

T-2 - 330K (+36K)

T-1 - 373K (+43K)

Final - 545K (+172K)

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/amc-theatres-returns-5-tuesday-movie-pricing-through-october/

 

Quote

Now that through the end of October, movies at all of its U.S. locations are just $5 plus tax for Tuesday showtimes until 4 p.m. or 5 p.m. This includes Premium experience showtimes and movies on their opening weekend. The discount pricing varies by location, so moviegoers should check showtimes in their area.

To access the discounted pricing, moviegoers need only to be a member of the AMC Stubs program, including AMC Stubs Insider, which is free to join.

While a premium experience fee applies for movies in Imax at AMC, Dolby Cinema at AMC and Prime at AMC, the base fee for premium experience movies is also $5.

 

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/amc-theatres-returns-5-tuesday-movie-pricing-through-october/

 

 

AMC really want to bring back Tuesday bump. 

[Eric Prime]

Wait...they were paying full price on Tuesdays still? Why?

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-10	Jax	6	18	4	51	1,884	2.71%
		Phx	5	15	2	19	1,833	1.04%
		Ral	7	22	17	113	2,101	5.38%
	Total		18	55	23	183	5,818	3.15%
Crawdads (EA)	T-9	Jax	1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
	Total		1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
Nope	T-17	Jax	7	51	2	74	8,591	0.86%
		Phx	6	20	6	114	4,344	2.62%
		Ral	8	25	2	91	3,411	2.67%
	Total		21	96	10	279	16,346	1.71%
Paws of Fury	T-10	Jax	6	24	7	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	10	10	1,628	0.61%
		Ral	7	20	11	11	1,984	0.55%
	Total		18	60	28	28	5,904	0.47%
Thor 4	T-3	Jax	7	111	226	2,739	17,071	16.04%
		Phx	6	114	131	3,120	18,369	16.99%
		Ral	8	90	214	2,958	11,580	25.54%
	Total		21	315	571	8,817	47,020	18.75%

 

Crawdads T-10 comps

 - Elvis - .72x (2.3m)

 - NTTD - .388x (2.016m)

 - Dune - .283x (1.44m)

 

Paws of Fury T-10 comps

 - Bad Guys - .757x (870k)

 

Nope T-17 comps

 - NTTD - .986x (5.13m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.28x (5.27m)

 - F9 - .633x (4.49m)

 

*Yesterday's numbers we input wrong.  Original post will be updated.

 

Thor 4 T-3 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .58x (20.86m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.65x (29.11m)

 - No Way Home - .368x (18.41m)

 - Black Widow - 2.46x (32.5m)

 - JW3 - .78x (31.59m)

 

I ran a few numbers to look at possible outcomes based on these comps.  I'm going to set my T-0 morning update sales prediction at 14,200 - essentially holding with Black Widow's last week pace.  This would put the comps average right at 27m.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-9	Jax	6	18	11	62	1,884	3.29%
		Phx	5	15	0	19	1,833	1.04%
		Ral	7	22	6	119	2,101	5.66%
	Total		18	55	17	200	5,818	3.44%
Crawdads (EA)	T-8	Jax	1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
	Total		1	1	0	17	86	19.77%
Nope	T-16	Jax	7	51	5	79	8,591	0.92%
		Phx	6	20	4	118	4,344	2.72%
		Ral	8	25	4	95	3,411	2.79%
	Total		21	96	13	292	16,346	1.79%
Paws of Fury	T-9	Jax	6	24	0	7	2,292	0.31%
		Phx	5	16	0	10	1,628	0.61%
		Ral	7	20	5	16	1,984	0.81%
	Total		18	60	5	33	5,904	0.56%
Thor 4	T-2	Jax	7	111	295	3,034	17,071	17.77%
		Phx	6	114	237	3,357	18,369	18.28%
		Ral	8	104	279	3,237	12,493	25.91%
	Total		21	329	811	9,628	47,933	20.09%

 

Crawdads T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .7x (2.25m)

 - NTTD - .38x (1.97m)

 - Dune - .292x (1.49m)

 

Paws of Fury T-9 comps

 - Bad Guys - .805x (926k)

 

Nope T-16 comps

 - NTTD - .896x (4.66m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.25x (5.14m)

 - F9 - .579x (4.11m)

 

Thor 4 T-2 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .567x (20.43m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.54x (27.01m)

 - No Way Home - .376x (18.8m)

 - Black Widow - 2.36x (31.1m)

 - JW3 - .85x (29.58m)

 

As everyone has mentioned, sales were expected to be down due to the Monday holiday.  Expecting a huge day today though.

[keysersoze123]

Thor Love and Thunder MTC2 previews - 148188/576944 2065274.42 3792 shows +13897 

 

This is 2 days of data. Just Eh. Let us see how much review bump we will see today. Seems another DS2 for now than ragnarok. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Thor 4	PLF	57	181	4,478	11,672	38.37%	$15.77	$70,610.41
		Standard	87	215	3,092	11,439	27.03%	$11.70	$36,190.72
	Thor 4 Total		144	396	7,570	23,111	32.75%	$14.11	$106,801.13

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Thor 4	N	103	277	5,922	16,531	35.82%	$14.82	$87,776.06
		Y	41	119	1,648	6,580	25.05%	$11.54	$19,025.07
	Thor 4 Total		144	396	7,570	23,111	32.75%	$14.11	$106,801.13

 

Thor T-3 comps

 - No Way Home - .442x (22.1m)

 - DS2 - .6x (21.61m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.5x (32.32m)

 - JW3 - 1.476x (26.56m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4	PLF	57	277	4,755	11,672	40.74%	$15.72	$74,735.42
		Standard	87	418	3,510	11,439	30.68%	$11.67	$40,952.22
	Thor 4 Total		144	695	8,265	23,111	35.76%	$14.00	$115,687.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Thor 4	N	103	473	6,395	16,531	38.68%	$14.73	$94,219.42
		Y	41	222	1,870	6,580	28.42%	$11.48	$21,468.22
	Thor 4 Total		144	695	8,265	23,111	35.76%	$14.00	$115,687.64

 

Thor T-2 comps

 - No Way Home - .462x (23.08m)

 - DS2 - .61x (21.95m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.48x (31.9m)

 - JW3 - 1.34x (24.11m)

 

Managed to increase against the MCU comps despite the holiday.  Expecting lots of shows to be added today.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/amc-theatres-returns-5-tuesday-movie-pricing-through-october/

 

 

 

That should help Tuesday box office - before, only Cinemark (of the big 3) was doing a true cheap Tuesday, and even then, many of their places were priced at $6, not $5...

[John Marston]

Edit 

Edited July 5, 2022 by John Marston

[Tinalera]

Thor 4 t-3 (t-0 friday)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	288	9696	34368	44064	0.22
Fri	20	284	7401	33840	41241	0.1794

 

Thurs/Fri Comps

 

X2.328 Jurassic Dominion (7.68 million Canada only, 137 million US/Canada)

X.7365 Dr Strange 2(4.56 Million Canada Only, 66 Million US/Canada)

 

Yea using Canada numbers with US/Canada openings gives some really funky numbers.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Tinalera

[Eric Prime]

I'm the only person who cares, but Super Pets has showtimes popped up at Cinemarks, with yet another 2 PM preview start time. @EmpireCity have any word on when tickets for that will drop?