April 22-24th Weekend thread | Northman conquers $5m Friday, Mr. Wolf’s fine ass and The Bad Guys steal $8m, and Unbearable Talent has an unbearable start at $3m

[Cap]

Massive Talent is MAGIC. My audience was dying. i need to know David E’s review stat. 
 

Nick Cage really is a singular talent. And my god is Pedro Pascal wasted as Mando 😂😂😂 get that damn mask off him. He is so beautiful and expressive and funny. 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, Cap said:

Massive Talent is MAGIC. My audience was dying. i need to know David E’s review stat. 
 

Nick Cage really is a singular talent. And my god is Pedro Pascal wasted as Mando 😂😂😂 get that damn mask off him. He is so beautiful and expressive and funny. 

One day we’ll speak about how wrong it is for the actual guy in that Mandolorian suit to get close to no credit for the work he does on that show.

[The Panda]

I recommend you all go watch

 

”You Won’t Be Alone”

 

the best review I saw of it

 

”it’s like a Terrence Malick film except every five minutes someone fangoriously butchers a donkey while a foley artist crushes a grapefruit into a hot mic.”

 

A wonderful, moving experience about the beauty of life. I recommend it to everyone.

[Gopher]

Since the beginning of Hollywood there's always been schadenfreude with studios overspending on movies that don't on paper seem like fully sound investments. It's fun to see eggs on faces, I get it, I really do. It's just weird to me to live in a time where it feels like there's never been more discourse about the viability of non-comic book movies showing in theaters, never been more picking apart of covid-inflated budgets to guess what studio execs were thinking (spoilers: they all greenlit these movies at cheaper budgets, it costs more $$$ to make anything than ever and every production is still subject to inflation and covid shutdowns)... and at the same time however these movies perform doesn't seem to compre to the scale at which streamers can spend on projects nobody seems to watch of talk about, because they don't report their numbers. Box office has and always will be transparent and the media will pick apart a movie thay appears unprofitable so much that they'll end up driving away some its potential business. 

 

It's impossible for Universal to gauge how the worldwide market-- something like the Northman was made for-- will function amidst ongoing country closures. Just as much as it's impossible to gauge how much a Northman could benefit Uni's streaming service (especially after a theatrical failure like The Last Duel exploded on PVOD/streaming) after it's already made some money back. But to me a 15 mil opening for a viking epic distributed by a studio's boutique label that got a late marketing start seems pretty good. 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Gopher

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Gopher said:

and at the same time no one will ever question streamers on why they double down on eight figure seasons of Foundation or Wheel of Time

Waht?  Streamers get relentlessly dunked on for overspending on this shit. You don't see it as much around here because it's not DTCTheory, but still.

[Gopher]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Waht?  Streamers get relentlessly dunked on for overspending on this shit. You don't see it as much around here because it's not DTCTheory, but still.

I get what you mean so I've edited my original phrasing. I'd argue they're not nearly reported in the press the same way, because numbers just aren't released unless the streamers want them to be. Even Netflix's stock tanking won't really spark discussion on what specifically is underperforming for them. 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I get what you mean so I've edited my original phrasing. I'd argue they're not nearly reported in the press the same way, because numbers just aren't released unless the streamers want them to be. Even Netflix's stock tanking won't really spark discussion on what specifically is underperforming for them. 

Ah, a reporting visibility issue rather than interest in dunking on issue. Yeah, I agree then.  

 

Though the netflix tanking feels like it might spark a larger conversation about some of these ridiculous spends to me.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Thanos Legion

[AJG]

36 minutes ago, Gopher said:

It's impossible for Universal to gauge how the worldwide market-- something like the Northman was made for-- will function amidst ongoing country closures. Just as much as it's impossible to gauge how much a Northman could benefit Uni's streaming service (especially after a theatrical failure like The Last Duel exploded on PVOD/streaming) after it's already made some money back. But to me a 15 mil opening for a viking epic distributed by a studio's boutique label that got a late marketing start seems pretty good. 

BOT for the last 4 pages

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The irony is that Northman's budget is a very reasonable spend for type of film it is. 

[EmpireCity]

Right now, it is looking like a $7.6m Friday for The Bad Guys.  It is an original, and anecdotally it looks like sales and WOM are taking off tonight.  I think it is still going $25m+ for the weekend.  

 

 

[EmpireCity]

I'm thinking $5.5m for The Northman.  Can get to $15m weekend if everything goes well.  

[DAJK]

@EmpireCity I take it these include previews?

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm thinking $5.5m for The Northman.  Can get to $15m weekend if everything goes well.  

 

The Northman opening that high definitely makes you wonder what the hell happened with Ambulance.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, Gopher said:

Since the beginning of Hollywood there's always been schadenfreude with studios overspending on movies that don't on paper seem like fully sound investments. It's fun to see eggs on faces, I get it, I really do. It's just weird to me to live in a time where it feels like there's never been more discourse about the viability of non-comic book movies showing in theaters, never been more picking apart of covid-inflated budgets to guess what studio execs were thinking (spoilers: they all greenlit these movies at cheaper budgets, it costs more $$$ to make anything than ever and every production is still subject to inflation and covid shutdowns)... and at the same time however these movies perform doesn't seem to compre to the scale at which streamers can spend on projects nobody seems to watch of talk about, because they don't report their numbers. Box office has and always will be transparent and the media will pick apart a movie thay appears unprofitable so much that they'll end up driving away some its potential business. 

 

It's impossible for Universal to gauge how the worldwide market-- something like the Northman was made for-- will function amidst ongoing country closures. Just as much as it's impossible to gauge how much a Northman could benefit Uni's streaming service (especially after a theatrical failure like The Last Duel exploded on PVOD/streaming) after it's already made some money back. But to me a 15 mil opening for a viking epic distributed by a studio's boutique label that got a late marketing start seems pretty good. 

Do we know this tho? I LOVED that movie, but is there actually any data that it "exploded" on PVOD/streaming. It was like never up there on Google play store as far as rentals go. It briefly registered on ITunes. And I'm sure it did fine on HBO Max, but it's viewings we're certainly never reported. 

 

So idk about that. I think people were straight up not interested in The Last Duel 

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Right now, it is looking like a $7.6m Friday for The Bad Guys.  It is an original, and anecdotally it looks like sales and WOM are taking off tonight.  I think it is still going $25m+ for the weekend.  

 

 

I wonder if the WOM is strong enough on Saturday, it could have a stronger than expected jump. Like 50%+.

Edited April 23, 2022 by YourMother

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

If Northman gets to 15m, Green Knight legs bring it to 38m-ish, Last Duel legs to 34. (15m would be higher than Last Duel's domestic total. Green Knight finished with 17m). 

 

Should be good for a top 5 OW for non-IP (live action)

Lost City- 30.4m (including sneaks)

Free Guy- 28.3m

Old- 16.8m OW (based on book)

Dog- 14.8m 

Gucci- 14.4m 3 day (based on true story)

 

Others:

Moonfall- 9.8m

RRR- 9.5m (true story)

Respect- 8.8m (true story)

Ambulance- 8.6m

Wrath of Man- 8.3m

 

Jungle Cruise is a Disney ride

 

If Bad Guys gets to 25m+, that would be close to Encanto's 3day and higher than Sing 2's 3 day, Addams Family, and Boss Baby 2

[robertman2]

23 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

The Northman opening that high definitely makes you wonder what the hell happened with Ambulance.

People saw Bay and "Nah."

[ringedmortality]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Jungle Cruise is a Disney ride

 

Surely that should still count under "original." It's not like it's adapted from source material, it's just a boat ride where you see animatronics.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Surely that should still count under "original." It's not like it's adapted from source material, it's just a boat ride where you see animatronics.

It's very lenient what's considered original or not now lately lol. Even, technically, Northman isn't original.

 

Maybe let's just count anything that isn't MCU, DC, or a video game 😆

[John2015]

16 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

People saw Bay and "Nah."

Films like Ambulance aren't mainstream anymore.  Non-mainstream film need good reviews to do well theatrically.  Ambulance's reviews are simply not good enough.

 

20 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

If Northman gets to 15m, Green Knight legs bring it to 38m-ish, Last Duel legs to 34. (15m would be higher than Last Duel's domestic total. Green Knight finished with 17m). 

 

Should be good for a top 5 OW for non-IP (live action)

Lost City- 30.4m (including sneaks)

Free Guy- 28.3m

Old- 16.8m OW (based on book)

Dog- 14.8m 

Gucci- 14.4m 3 day (based on true story)

 

Others:

Moonfall- 9.8m

RRR- 9.5m (true story)

Respect- 8.8m (true story)

Ambulance- 8.6m

Wrath of Man- 8.3m

 

Jungle Cruise is a Disney ride

 

If Bad Guys gets to 25m+, that would be close to Encanto's 3day and higher than Sing 2's 3 day, Addams Family, and Boss Baby 2

 

Both films' second weekend drop will probably be smaller, since next week has no new wide opener except "Memory" (which is getting very little marketing.)

Edited April 23, 2022 by John2015