April 22-24th Weekend thread | Northman conquers $5m Friday, Mr. Wolf’s fine ass and The Bad Guys steal $8m, and Unbearable Talent has an unbearable start at $3m

[filmnerdjamie]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

No way will they get a proper HP sequel out by then. Maybe 2031. 30th anniversary of the first film

 

They aren't going to wait a near decade because it fits with an anniversary to sell.

 

The moment Radcliffe, Watson and Grint agree to come back (and mind you, they already have "Set for Life" money in the bank), it's a go and new management will move mountains to make that happen ASAP.

[John2015]

8 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Just curious - Does the 70m include marketing cost?

Cause the way the Deadline's article is written, it is as though a lot has been spent on marketing..

The 17 days windows actually helps Focus to save money; Focus don't have to spend extra big money to promote VOD release.

 

On the other hand, "The Batman" had 45-day windows, and right now WB have to re-spend big money to promote the VOD release.  (In recent week, I had seen a lot of "The Batman" TV spots for its VOD release... almost as many as "The Northman" TV spots)

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by John2015

[Taruseth]

42 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Box Office: ‘The Northman’ $1.4M, ‘Bad Guys’ $1.1M, Nicolas Cage Satire $835K In Thursday Previews – Deadline

 

Is this the latest? 

1.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 4,009 Theaters, Fri $8M, 3-day $25M/Wk 1

2.) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Par) 3,809 (-449) theaters, Fri $4M (-63%), 3-day $15.2M (-48%)/Total $145.8M/Wk 3

3.) Fantastic Beasts…Dumbledore(WB), 4,245 (+37) theaters, Fri $4M (-80%), 3-day $13.5M (-68%)/Total $66.6M/Wk 2

4.) The Northman (Foc) 3,234 theaters, Fri $5M, 3-day $12.5M/Wk 1

5.) Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (LG) 3,036 theaters, Fri $2.9M, 3-day $7.8M/Wk 1

6.) Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) 2,133 (-87) theaters, Fri $1.55M (-18%), 3-day $5.3M (-13%)/Total $26.8M/Wk 5

7.) The Lost City (Par) 2,828 (-602) theaters Fri. $1.3M (-35%), 3-day $4.6M (-26%)/Total $85.6M/ Wk 5

Looks like FB3 is doing a BvS (1.9900x)... So total in the end $84m. First week was 1.2601x the weekend for FB3 and 1.2594x for BvS. So legs for FB3 will be 1,9912x and total $83,930,862 . Probably will get above a 2x but for what, a finish of 85m, which would be below the OW of Harry Potter 1 (90.3m) (HP2 88.4m, HP3 93.7m, HP4 102,7m, HP5 77.1m but that started on a Wednesday, first 3 days were 88.4m, HP6 77.8m also Wednesday start, first 3 days were 107.0m, HP7-1 125m, HP7-2 169.2m) but at least above the OW of FB1 (but below its first five days). 

 

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Just curious - Does the 70m include marketing cost?

Cause the way the Deadline's article is written, it is as though a lot has been spent on marketing..

No, just the production budget. 

 

The marketing we'll probably never know, but i wouldn't bet that costs much, the marketing was non-existent until early April.

 

And since the VOD is coming so soon, the marketing money is probably promoting both for theaters and VOD, so they're actually saving some money. I hate this small windows but they're being smart in business perspective.

Edited April 23, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[wildphantom]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It costs 70M as explained hundred of times, and it's getting good takes because many expect half of that. 

 

I mean it's obviously not getting profit on theaters, but it's not the disaster everyone predict, it can get 100M worldwide and it's coming to VOD only 17 days later, which probably will bring very good numbers. It can pull a The Last Duel and smash on streaming too when it's available.

 

In the end, this movie can ended up paying itself in a long term and avoid the expected massive failure situation, that's it, good takes explained.

 

 

absolutely. 
yes, moviegoing is a business but studios like to make movies that will last as much as ones that instantly make money upfront. They like to have widely acclaimed movies as well as Alvin and the Chipmunks smashes. 
 

I mean, did Blade Runner lose money for WB? The last time I checked it’s been raking in consistent cash for them since 1982. I’m not sure you could say the same for, say Arthur - which made four times as much money on initial release around the same time. 
 

Legacy matters, and by all accounts The Northman is going to have a nice road ahead as a key film by one of the most celebrated current filmmakers. 

[titanic2187]

53 minutes ago, AJG said:

I told you this would happen in December 2021. 
 

 

More like fantastic beast and where to find box office.

[John Marston]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It costs 70M as explained hundred of times, and it's getting good takes because many expect half of that. 

 

I mean it's obviously not getting profit on theaters, but it's not the disaster everyone predict, it can get 100M worldwide and it's coming to VOD only 17 days later, which probably will bring very good numbers. It can pull a The Last Duel and smash on streaming too when it's available.

 

In the end, this movie can ended up paying itself in a long term and avoid the expected massive failure situation, that's it, good takes explained.

 

 

 

when did Last Duel “explode” on streaming?

 

 

a flop is a flop 

[JustLurking]

Atleast The Northman isn't going to bomb like The Last Duel (which is still an utterly depressing performance for a movie I really liked), but it's also just another disappointing performance in an ominous streak for these movies nowadays. Napoleon heading straight to streaming is a pretty bad omen already for the future of these sort of films.

Edited April 23, 2022 by JustLurking

[WeThrones]

1 hour ago, cookie said:

Oof. $100m seems out of reach now.

As are the hopes for Part 4. 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, WeThrones said:

As are the hopes for Part 4. 

It’s time for the R-Rated spin off

 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

when did Last Duel “explode” on streaming?

 

 

a flop is a flop 

You're living in a world where VOD and streaming are part of the conversation pretty close to theaters when it comes to success, you don't have to accept it but it is what it is. 

 

If a movie can get decent money on theaters, than get good money digitally and then get strong streaming numbers i'm sorry but nobody will called it a huge failure just because you want.

 

And yes, even movies in worse situations that The Northman ended up finding success in other places. Nightmare Alley was more watched on streaming platforms on it's opening than the finale of huge shows like Euphoria, despite grossing only 10M domestically. Despite being a big flop on theaters, the movie isn't DOA because of that.

 

Of course in NA case the box office was too bad to get good takes like The Northman just because it did pretty good elsewhere. But still, this "a flop is a flop" argument is totally dated.

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, AJG said:

It’s time for the R-Rated spin off

 

The fact that the porn industry didn't rush out to create this porn parody should tell us just how little of a cultural imprint the series left so far.

[AJG]

23 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

when did Last Duel “explode” on streaming?

 

 

a flop is a flop 

 

It trended on UK Disney+ for a bit but that's about it.

[CJohn]

It was so obvious FB3 was gonna Dark Phoenix itself. FB2 was terribly received and they doubled down on literally everything to produce yet another nonsense piece of shit.

[Ozymandias]

14 hours ago, The Panda said:

I recommend you all go watch

 

”You Won’t Be Alone”

 

the best review I saw of it

 

”it’s like a Terrence Malick film except every five minutes someone fangoriously butchers a donkey while a foley artist crushes a grapefruit into a hot mic.”

 

A wonderful, moving experience about the beauty of life. I recommend it to everyone.

 

I really want to see this because it looks like the love child of The Witch and Under the Skin.  I watched The Witch again recently and I like it a lot more than I did in 2015. 

 

However I really wish filmmakers would stop using these shitty narrower aspect ratios though, it doesn't make your film more serious, authentic, or better.  To me its just as gimmicky as filmmakers releasing black and white versions of their films...like lol okay dude.

 

10 hours ago, Flopped said:

I was surprised when there was talk of House of Gucci's B+ Cinemascore being disappointing when you had a near 3-hour movie where absolutely everyone is despicable. 

 

I'm surprised GA seemed to like that movie as much as they did.  To me House of Gucci breaks the number one rule of film making which is being boring.  Its got some good scenes sprinkled throughout, but overall its an oddly flat film.  The Riddler following up a very good film with a dud or vice versa is on brand though lol.

 

27 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

when did Last Duel “explode” on streaming?

 

 

a flop is a flop 

 

I remember chatter about it being in the top 10 on streaming all the way up to its HBOMAX release in January, not sure though.

[RyneOh1040]

worst case scenario for beasts. 100 million domestic seems out of the cards. would need a miracle showing overseas to even warrant a discussion for a fourth and final but think wb will just walk away. 

[Pinacolada]

Y'all were literally predicting that The Northman would open to like $4m 2 weeks ago.

 

So yeah, an opening around $15m is a relative "success" in my book that shows there is a theatrical audience for a movie like this

Edited April 23, 2022 by Pinacolada

[robertman2]

here's how fantastic beasts can still win

[filmnerdjamie]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It was so obvious FB3 was gonna Dark Phoenix itself. FB2 was terribly received and they doubled down on literally everything to produce yet another nonsense piece of shit.

 

They blamed FB2's under-performance all on Depp.

 

Ironically this would have done the same business with Depp. 

[Grebacio]

What are your expectations for Cinemacon next week?

Mine are:

Universal:

- Mario Bros first teaser.

- New Dreamworks projects reveals.

- New trailers for Nope and JW Dominion.

 

Paramount:

- AQP spinoff title and cast reveal.

- Secret Headquarters teaser

 

Warner:

- New trailers for Super Pets, Elvis and first trailer for Black Adam

 

Sony:

- New trailer for Bullet Train and first trailer for Lyle Lyle Cocodrile

 

Disney:

-Nothing released online, just footage for Lightyear, Thor and Avatar, exclusive for attendees.