TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

Tron:Legacy is so under rated. It looks better than most blockbusters these days.

Yeah i rewatched recently and it's gorgeous, not only the top notch VFX, but the lightning, architecture, designs... Insanely well done. Sadly the screenwriter wasn't inspired like Kosinski, but it's still a good movie.

 

Whoever is making Tron 3 will have a hard time to match Legac, at least visually.

[cookie]

Batman

DS2

Top Gun

JW3

Lightyear (maybe)

Thor

BP2

Avatar

 

Eight $350m+ grossers in 2022 would be massive after how 2020/2021 fared.

[keysersoze123]

2015 tracking was very rudimentary. I dont think we even had fandango scrap available back then. Not sure even if @Porthos was doing regional tracking. I know @grim22 used to track LA area and few folks used to post for other cities. 

 

Now we get so much perspective and full MTC data. its impossible to be shocked by any BO. but its possible to be shocked on Day 1 of PS and sometimes like Venom 2 the breakout started like 7-10 days to release when PS started going up and up. 

[MattW]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

2015 tracking was very rudimentary. I dont think we even had fandango scrap available back then. Not sure even if @Porthos was doing regional tracking. I know @grim22 used to track LA area and few folks used to post for other cities. 

 

Now we get so much perspective and full MTC data. its impossible to be shocked by any BO. but its possible to be shocked on Day 1 of PS and sometimes like Venom 2 the breakout started like 7-10 days to release when PS started going up and up. 

I want to say fandango was 2017, but I might be mis-remembering. I haven't been around much lately, is the mtc data as comprehensive as the fandango stuff was?

[EmpireCity]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

To rephrase, if anyone had told us this would happen a month or two ago, I think nearly all of us (with the notable exception of EC who is the true prophet regarding this flick) would have been... extremely skeptical.

 

But as soon as those first day ticket sales came out of Denver and Sacramento?  Well, Let's just say that with every passing day seeing something special happening this MDW became more and more of a possibility.

 

I always knew this movie was going to be a huge success and likely Tom Cruise's biggest opening, but the fact that it might open to $170m 4 day is ridiculous and I didn't see that until actual pre-sales data hit.  I thought optimistically coming out of seeing the whole thing at CinemaCon that if everything went perfect it could hit a $100m opening, but trying to be "realistic" I was hoping for $75m+ 3 day opening.  That alone would have been wildly successful  

 

In 2022 with the way early sales and comp tracking are, there are never any true surprises in the classical sense due to knowing via data, but even with that Top Gun: Maverick is having an ASTOUNDING opening.  

 

It's wild and I love it.  One of the reasons all of us spend time on this forum and doing what we do.  

[keysersoze123]

Just now, MattW said:

I want to say fandango was 2017, but I might be mis-remembering. I haven't been around much lately, is the mtc data as comprehensive as the fandango stuff was?

fandango was not comprehensive at all as it was just a sample. There was limit to how many tickets that could be tracked. It was not complete at all. When we had full tracking for 2 MTC that was as much as 48% of previews BO. Now even with just 1 its about 25% of overall BO. But sometimes it does under index like it did for TGM. @Porthos regional tracking does get the range right more often than not. and we have many other really good regional trackers like @Inceptionzq and @Eric Belcher. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, MattW said:

I want to say fandango was 2017, but I might be mis-remembering. I haven't been around much lately, is the mtc data as comprehensive as the fandango stuff was?

The detailed regionals combined with MTC data are better than Fandango. Some of us were able to get good enough reading the Fandango data to decent precision but the coverage we have now is unparalleled. The only advantage with Fandango was it allowed anyone to check the data at any point. 

[Warmaster506]

Top Gun is fucking amazing. Unbelievable 

[Djsoke]

Wow, Downton Abbey's drop seems kinda terrible.

 

Deadline's 51m for Friday is def a lowball yeah?

 

But their 4.4 for DS2 and 5.5 for BB seems about right

[AdrianL]

After seeing the movie, yeah, it's gonna be big. The last half hour is really quite good and feels like an old school blockbuster/ ties in well with the first in an emotional way. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

17 minutes ago, Djsoke said:

Wow, Downton Abbey's drop seems kinda terrible.

 

Deadline's 51m for Friday is def a lowball yeah?

 

But their 4.4 for DS2 and 5.5 for BB seems about right

yep they updated TG for 51m late night , who is right?

 

Here’s how the top 5 chart is looking; based on industry estimates:

1.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,735 theaters Fri $51M, 3-day $120M, 4-day $146.2M/Wk 1

2.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 3,805 theaters (-729), Fri $4.4M (-48%), 3 day $17M (-47%), 4 day $21.8M, total $376.1M, /Wk 4

3.) The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th/Dis) 3,425 theaters, Fri $5.5M, 3-day $14.7M, 4-day $18.1M/Wk 1

4.) Downton Abbey: A New Era (Foc) 3,830 theaters (+10), Fri $1.7M (-77%), 3-day $6M (-63%), 4-day $7.7M, total $30.2M/Wk 2

5.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 2944 theaters (-761), Fri $1.2M (-18%), 3-day $4.8M (-22%), 4-day $6.4M, total $83.1M/Wk 6

Edited May 28, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[narniadis]

Gotta love the backtracking Deadline is doing RE: the Memorial Day Records 🤣 Previews were actually previews in 2007.... and trying to tie in Indys 5 day weekend as if it was a legitimate previews Thursday is hilarious. 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, RthMav said:

I had been going with TGM  Fri 53m

Slightly better preview multiplier than NWH (2.44x), DS2(2.5x) and batman(2.62x), if that “fake” Friday number stick.  
 

the movie can top the entire gross of the original in just 5 days including preview.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Gotta love the backtracking Deadline is doing RE: the Memorial Day Records 🤣 Previews were actually previews in 2007.... and trying to tie in Indys 5 day weekend as if it was a legitimate previews Thursday is hilarious. 

I think it's more apples to apples to consider Indy a 152 OW than 127 for the sake of comparison with modern movies. If it had the exact same shows available on the exact same days it would certainly be counted as a 55.6M "OD.".  

 

And 153 certainly seems like the right fig for pirates.

Edited May 28, 2022 by DS2HaterLegion Confirmed

[Ryan Reynolds]

19 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Gotta love the backtracking Deadline is doing RE: the Memorial Day Records 🤣 Previews were actually previews in 2007.... and trying to tie in Indys 5 day weekend as if it was a legitimate previews Thursday is hilarious. 

Indy 4 was a true Thursday opening , i was their Wednesday/Thursday midnight opening

[AdrianL]

Bad Guys should squeak past 100m, nice to see. Pretty bizarre that it's gonna beat Encanto (although mostly due to Bad Guys not being available straight to a streaming platform in 30 days vs its short window...)

Edited May 28, 2022 by AdrianL

[Cooper Legion]

We’ve rolled in all day showings before, In the Heights and Clifford spring to mind. Wed true midnights+all day Th would def just be “previews.”

Edited May 28, 2022 by DS2HaterLegion Confirmed

[Heretic]

This is incredible for Top Gun.

 

Must say I’ve become a bit disenchanted with BO over the last few years especially, but this opening brings me back to the times where films unexpectedly broke out and became absolutely huge. I know this was already tracking for a big opening, but I don’t think an opening on this level was expected. 

 

An A+ cinemascore and WOM clearly through the stratosphere, it’ll be a very exciting run ahead. Would be some story if Top Gun took the summer crown. 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Heretic

[excel1]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

2015 tracking was very rudimentary. I dont think we even had fandango scrap available back then. Not sure even if @Porthos was doing regional tracking. I know @grim22 used to track LA area and few folks used to post for other cities. 

 

Now we get so much perspective and full MTC data. its impossible to be shocked by any BO. but its possible to be shocked on Day 1 of PS and sometimes like Venom 2 the breakout started like 7-10 days to release when PS started going up and up. 

 

Anyone else remember YAHOO RATING RATIOS? 

 

Or the days when NOTFABIO was god?

Edited May 28, 2022 by excel1

[FilmFincher]

I'm still on a high after watching this film last night and these opening weekend numbers are just adding to it.