WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[YM!]

1. Ratatouille 
2. Coco
3. The Incredibles
4. Toy Story 2
5. Wall-E
6. Soul
7. Luca
8. Monsters Inc
9. Toy Story 3
10. Turning Red
11. Inside Out
12. Toy Story 4
13. Up
14. Finding Nemo
15. Toy Story
16. Finding Dory 
17. Onward
18. Cars 3
19. Cars 2
20. Monsters University 
21. Incredibles 2
22. Lightyear
23. The Good Dinosaur 
24. A Bugs Life
25. Cars
26. Brave

Here is my Pixar ranking to pivot the discussion.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I appreciate your passion and nobody wants and supports movies in theaters more than all of us here. Plenty of people have been hysterical and too doomsayer, I agree. But you've overcorrected, man. While it's clear theaters are not dying, it's also clear they're not recovering back to the halcyon days either. Sure, there's plenty of evidence now that theaters will do well for big, live action event movies with PLF like the MCU and Top Gun. But where's the depth? Look at beyond the top three this weekend - it's a wasteland! Used to be you'd have your Best Man's Holiday or Open Range or Dead Silence or Hop (naming random ass genre movies here) that would do a solid 15-20 OW and hang around the box office a few weeks. That doesn't happen anymore. I mean, is a weekend like Thanksgiving 2019, with Frozen 2, Knives Out, Ford v Ferrari, the Mr. Rogers joint, and a couple of holiday comedies and horror movies co-existing even possible anymore? Not to mention, the market for animated and family films clearly has changed and probably forever due to streaming and kids with COVID. You were absolutely right that theaters weren't going to all close and go out of business. But to sit here and whistle dixie and pretend all things are good, and the good ole days will soon be here again for the box office, in my opinion is also an exaggeration, and also an overreaction in the other direction.

 

1. I disagree that people here want to support movies in theaters.  Much like a lot of sports writers, many people here seem to get a weird sense of joy whenever what they are supposed to enjoy covering or following does poorly.  The shittier results draw in all sorts of people that love to wallow in filth.  

 

2.  I haven't overcorrected, and it in fact isn't clear that theaters aren't recoving back to the halcyon days.  In fact, Axios just put out their analysis as well as a few others I respect internally that fully expect 2023 to return to previous levels.  

 

3.  The depth isn't there due to a lot of pandemic related issues.  It is going to take a while for supply to catch up.  It's going to be depleted until early next year.  Most productions went through shut downs, longer shooting due to covid protocol and VFX and post production is running behind.  

 

4.  Dog, Everything, Everywhere, The Lost City and multiple others show that theatrical is fully capable of supporting films beyond big tentpole movies.  

 

The mistake others made before and you are making now is putting some sort of accelerated time limit on theatrical to get immediatly back from the effects of a global pandemic.  Given time, it can and will recover.  In fact, it is going to recover and continues to recover in a big way.  It's going to take time, but it's going to happen.  I've said that from the start and every step of the way it continues to prove correct.  

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

No. I said inflation is hurting the box office and that Disney will probably skip theatrical for some of their animated movies. Still agree with those statements in fact, no matter how "wrong" I might be.

As long as you are recovering marketing cost I suppose getting a bonus theatrical revenue don't hurt. Day and date streaming is dumb and whoever is doing it is killing the business in long run.

[Tokugennumataka]

Amongst all the disagreement and arguments, this weekend is historic in BO as the original Star Wars is not gonna be among the top 20 highest grossing films in NA anymore. 

[Gopher]

Clay is 100% right. As an 'industry person' or whatever I can say there was more relief this year over movies like Dog and EEAO pulling the numbers they did than Dr Strange or Jurassic World because the multiplex will not survive on the little variety we're seeing right now. Disney can force Lightyear onto 3-5 screens per multiplex because aside from two other tentpoles there's no other options right now, and if a Lightyear-type movie underperforms at all, there's less for theaters to rely on filling auditoriums. 

[charlie Jatinder]

40 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

whats the explanation for a "real guy" from the 1990's having access to what seems like tech from the future?

I haven't watched the movie but we haven't reached star wars level tech in 2022 yet. Right?

[CoolioD1]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

TDKR isn't dead yet worldwide 

china to top gun: there's no money you can steal here.

[EmpireCity]

21 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Disney will probably skip theatrical for some of their animated movies

 

12 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Umm...no? I did post that. Not sure why this is a "gotcha"

 

Because of the above, mostly.  

[Cap]

 

IT HAS ARRIVED

[lorddemaxus]

I see TG2 and JWD Friday numbers? No estimates for Lightyear's Friday?

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

1. I disagree that people here want to support movies in theaters.  Much like a lot of sports writers, many people here seem to get a weird sense of joy whenever what they are supposed to enjoy covering or following does poorly.  The shittier results draw in all sorts of people that love to wallow in filth.  

 

2.  I haven't overcorrected, and it in fact isn't clear that theaters aren't recoving back to the halcyon days.  In fact, Axios just put out their analysis as well as a few others I respect internally that fully expect 2023 to return to previous levels.  

 

3.  The depth isn't there due to a lot of pandemic related issues.  It is going to take a while for supply to catch up.  It's going to be depleted until early next year.  Most productions went through shut downs, longer shooting due to covid protocol and VFX and post production is running behind.  

 

4.  Dog, Everything, Everywhere, The Lost City and multiple others show that theatrical is fully capable of supporting films beyond big tentpole movies.  

 

The mistake others made before and you are making now is putting some sort of accelerated time limit on theatrical to get immediatly back from the effects of a global pandemic.  Given time, it can and will recover.  In fact, it is going to recover and continues to recover in a big way.  It's going to take time, but it's going to happen.  I've said that from the start and every step of the way it continues to prove correct.  

I don't disagree with everything here and I appreciate you expressing it with respect, but then I look at the schedule for even September or October or even the early part of next year and I think......what in the world among the vast majority these movies is doing more than 5m OW then leaving theaters in a week? There is definitely, definitely a higher percentage of movies that just do 4m and then disappear from theaters with nothing to fill than there used to be, when even the dumb Liam Neeson joints would have hit 12m+ OW and kept some money flowing into theaters for once. I agree that the future for movies isn't all bad. But we had people get used to streaming, short windows, and staying home. I just don't know if the genie ever goes fully back in the bottle. I don't see how it can.  I don't know where it ultimately ends up, but I do know that when something disruptive happens and totally changes how people consume media, things never go back to exactly how they were. That just doesn't happen.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

1. Ratatouille 
2. Coco
3. The Incredibles
4. Toy Story 2
5. Wall-E
6. Soul
7. Luca
8. Monsters Inc
9. Toy Story 3
10. Turning Red
11. Inside Out
12. Toy Story 4
13. Up
14. Finding Nemo
15. Toy Story
16. Finding Dory 
17. Onward
18. Cars 3
19. Cars 2
20. Monsters University 
21. Incredibles 2
22. Lightyear
23. The Good Dinosaur 
24. A Bugs Life
25. Cars
26. Brave

Here is my Pixar ranking to pivot the discussion.

 

Oh boy. Lets go.

 

01. Ratatouille

02. The Incredibles

03. Wall-E

04. Monsters Inc

05. Finding Nemo

06. Inside Out
07. Toy Story 2

08. Toy Story 3

09. Up

10. Toy Story 4

11. Coco

12. Toy Story (ill probably get hate for this lol)

13. Soul

14. Incredibles 2

15. Monsters Universaty

16. A Bugs Life

17. Brave

18. The Good Dinosaur (still one of my biggest disappointments in any movie)
19. Finding Dory

20. Cars
21. Cars 2

 

Havent seen Onward, Luca, Turning Red, Lightyear and Cars 3 yet. Dont plan it ever for Cars 3.

[Gopher]

Two things can be true...

 

1. Chapek/Disney will likely not punt every Pixar movie to Disney+. Their movies cost at least 200 million a pop. Yes, subscriber data translated to good quarter earnings reports, but they lost so much actual money on Soul, Luca and Turning Red (and lest we forget had already commited to theatrical-sized marketing budgets before they were put straight to streaming), and the current culture of streaming dictates more and more that individual projects have to be sound investments. Nobody but Apple can afford to spend astronomical figures on streaming-only movies anymore, and even Apple is gonna start giving theatrical-first runs for their Pixar-sized budget titles. Not to mention Pixar is so expensive to operate as is, or that Pixar culture is different enough from Disney's that they are willing to publicly leverage their beliefs and positions (enough that Disney put the lesbian relationship back into Lightyear). 

 

2. The combination of putting high-quality original Pixar movies on streaming and returning to theaters with this less-than-warmly-received piece of IP that has also confused every potential viewer for different reasons... that has hurt Pixar's theatrical brand. They can get it back by making great movies, with great, easy-to-digest premises, that have exclusive theatrical runs. I hope they do, because Lightyear as a movie and as a performance comp is not sustainable for anybody. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Gopher

[MrPink]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

china to top gun: there's no money you can steal here.

 

Top Gun when it passes TDKR without China

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I see TG2 and JWD Friday numbers? No estimates for Lightyear's Friday?

From what it looked from pre-sales & some of morning shows, JWD is winning FSS.

Edited June 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Grebacio]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

1. Ratatouille 
2. Coco
3. The Incredibles
4. Toy Story 2
5. Wall-E
6. Soul
7. Luca
8. Monsters Inc
9. Toy Story 3
10. Turning Red
11. Inside Out
12. Toy Story 4
13. Up
14. Finding Nemo
15. Toy Story
16. Finding Dory 
17. Onward
18. Cars 3
19. Cars 2
20. Monsters University 
21. Incredibles 2
22. Lightyear
23. The Good Dinosaur 
24. A Bugs Life
25. Cars
26. Brave

Here is my Pixar ranking to pivot the discussion.

1. Incredibles

2. Ratatouille

3. Monsters Inc

4. Toy Story 3

5. Toy Story 2

6. Up

7. Inside Out

8. Finding Nemo

9. Monsters University

10. Bugs Life

11. Turning Red

12. Toy Story

13. Coco

14. Luca

15. Soul

16. Cars

17. Onward

18. Finding Dory

19. Incredibles 2

20. Toy Story 4

21. Good Dinosaur

22. Cars 3

23. Cars 2

 

Haven't seen Lightyear yet, and haven't seen Wall E and Brave in years.

[cookie]

1. Coco
2. Toy Story 2
3. Inside Out
4. The Incredibles
5. Soul
6. Ratatouille
7. Up
8. Toy Story 3
9. Wall-E
10. Finding Nemo
11. Toy Story 4
12. Toy Story
13. Onward
14. Turning Red
15. Luca
16. Monster's Inc
17. Finding Dory
18. Incredibles 2
19. A Bug's Life
20. Lightyear
21. Monster's University
22. The Good Dinosaur
23. Cars 2
24. Cars

 

Hasn't bothered with Brave or Cars 3

Edited June 17, 2022 by cookie

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Next weekend will be important. A big adult aiming film and a horror film. Really need Elvis and Black Phone to perform

[Cmasterclay]

Gopher put it alot better than I could, but I just think people are vastly underestimating how much low-information consumers (aka most people and families) literally just think all the animated movies come out on Disney+ now. Now to cite favorable anecdotes, but I had two coworkers with kids tell me they were gonna watch Lightyear on Disney+ this week because they thought it was on there! That's a hard habit to break.

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I don't disagree with everything here and I appreciate you expressing it with respect, but then I look at the schedule for even September or October or even the early part of next year and I think......what in the world among the vast majority these movies is doing more than 5m OW then leaving theaters in a week? There is definitely, definitely a higher percentage of movies that just do 4m and then disappear from theaters with nothing to fill than there used to be, when even the dumb Liam Neeson joints would have hit 12m+ OW and kept some money flowing into theaters for once. I agree that the future for movies isn't all bad. But we had people get used to streaming, short windows, and staying home. I just don't know if the genie ever goes fully back in the bottle. I don't see how it can.  I don't know where it ultimately ends up, but I do know that when something disruptive happens and totally changes how people consume media, things never go back to exactly how they were. That just doesn't happen.

 

First, nothing from a major studio is around for a week and disappears.  Everything stays for 2 weeks minimum.  

 

Mid-February 2023 is where it starts to ramp up.  Ant-Man, Cocaine Bear, and then into March where you get D&D, Haunted Mansion, Aquaman 2, John Wick 4 and Scream 6.  Compare that to March 2022.  

 

April 2023 has On a Wing and a Prayer, Super Maro Bros., George Foreman Biopic, Renfield, 65, The Last Train to New York and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret.  

 

May through August 2023 are loaded.  The volume is night and day vs. 2022.