M37 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: I think we're missing families, but the more mature viewers have now joined the 13-45s in being back in full force. So, it's really only one big demo, the Saturday/Sunday afternoon demo of families, that's not here. And part of the reason they aren't there is probably no longer Covid, but the lack of affordability for the demo that needs to buy 3-6 tickets/movie in a time of high inflation. They are the only ones that don't benefit from a subscription plan or discount plan of any type...so, they feel prices more than any other demo... I will agree that families are a large part of it (though Sundays still strong), but also a lot of casual adult viewers too. Whether a cost/time concern, or just having just broken that routine and not picking back up, Saturdays remain weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said: On the day TGM cracked the all-time top 10, it posted another fantastic Tuesday hold. I honestly can't see how it misses 700m, it's constantly in Avatar territory with dailies and more than a month of summer plus LD still to come. Biggest domestic 8th Tuesday: 1 Jan 1, 2013 Lincoln $2,463,323 1,966 $1,253 $136,652,420 2 Feb 9, 2010 Avatar $2,025,264 3,000 $675 $633,621,035 3 Jul 19, 2022 Top Gun: Maverick $2,002,436 3,292 $608 $622,089,456 Avatar made 23.6m on the weekend following its 8th Tuesday. TGM is looking to make 9-10m. It'll be sitting at about 635m after Sunday, and 65m is an awful lot of ground to cover once your weekends have dipped into seven figures, summer weekdays or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Crawdads is having really nice dailies during the week because its audience is older is for the most part. That bodes well for its staying power though, $60M+ is more than possible now since it won't have any real competition until Don't Worry Darling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krla Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: No, it won't. This was just people willing to pay $5, but not $15, per person to see the movie. It was still a large bump for a Tuesday. Last I checked, audiences seemed pleased with the movie. With decent WOM, it could hold well this weekend. 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: Families aren't really showing up, so it's not a big issue. I mean, there was: Lightyear - catastrophic fail Minions - big success, but thanks to 13-25, not really hugely family driven Paws of Fury - fail Super-Pets - TBD - I think it's success is gonna ride on how much they can get 13+ to show up...although it will still be above Paws I imagine, regardless of how well Super Pets does, that it will obliterate Paws. But I get the feeling Super Pets will also come in below expectations. And is California gonna be masking up again? That could keep families away from theaters. 1 hour ago, Bishop54 said: It only gained 8% while most other movies went up 20+%. Compare it to last Tuesday, it had the smallest week to week drop of -19%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I've been feeling an opening similar to The Bad Guys for a while re: Super-Pets tbh. Whether WB will see that as a win is up for debate, they probably had higher expectations initially between the DC brand and the starry voice cast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronin46 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Avatar made 23.6m on the weekend following its 8th Tuesday. TGM is looking to make 9-10m. It'll be sitting at about 635m after Sunday, and 65m is an awful lot of ground to cover once your weekends have dipped into seven figures, summer weekdays or not. What are you talking about? Avatar did 760M not 700M If you mean Black Panther which did 700 and TGM is catching that one and is 45M behind and catching at over 1M per day. 700 is a real chance. 760M which Avatar made is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Avatar made 23.6m on the weekend following its 8th Tuesday. TGM is looking to make 9-10m. It'll be sitting at about 635m after Sunday, and 65m is an awful lot of ground to cover once your weekends have dipped into seven figures, summer weekdays or not. "Green range is confirmed. Setting time to target 2 minutes 15 seconds" is all I have to say to that. Ok, a bit more... Avatar made 80m from week 9 onwards (plus 10m second run after that). 90m total. Top Gun has to do 65m with LD and a potential re-release coming. Edited July 20, 2022 by The Dark Alfred 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptNathanBrittles Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Avatar made 23.6m on the weekend following its 8th Tuesday. TGM is looking to make 9-10m. It'll be sitting at about 635m after Sunday, and 65m is an awful lot of ground to cover once your weekends have dipped into seven figures, summer weekdays or not. That sounds like a... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I imagine TGM would maybe need to pull sub-20% drop this weekend to make a case for $700m still being alive (still banking on LD expansion but not including any theoretical awards season release -- I guess they could pull an IMAX re-release like with Gravity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potiki Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) On 7/20/2022 at 6:29 AM, vale9001 said: Didn't know Apple bought the vod rights for this. Is it coming in september? On 7/20/2022 at 7:15 AM, wildphantom said: nor did I? what a bizarre time we’re in. ‘Go see it in theatres now, but it’s coming free to our app soon!’ Lmao It isn't coming free it is a paid VOD rental/purchase, the same way they market Jurassic World 3 or Elvis, nowhere does it say free just that is it coming or out now. Some of you all just hate streaming with such passion that it messes with your reading comprehension 😜 Edited July 20, 2022 by Potiki 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Paramount might kill TGM legs next week by officially announcing streaming date at their earnings call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendaryBen Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said: Paramount might kill TGM legs next week by officially announcing streaming date at their earnings call It's not 100% guarantee it will happen next week but Bullet Train may hurt TGM the week after next (not as bad as Thor) and when you say kill legs, can you specify please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaz Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 I bet Paramount will re-release it during awards season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 TGM last 7days (D48-54) is 20M. Same period: Avatar 32.5M, added 116M (3.57x) BP 13M, added 33M (2.54x) NWH 12.5M, added 54M (4.32x) Frozen 19M, added 82M (4.32x) TGM is 78M away, so it needs 3.9x — or if you want to pencil in 10M of expansion, just 3.4x. Clearly possible to hit, clearly possible to miss. Going to remain in limbo at least until bullet train wknd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legion Again Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said: TGM last 7days (D48-54) is 20M. Same period: Avatar 32.5M, added 116M (3.57x) BP 13M, added 33M (2.54x) NWH 12.5M, added 54M (4.32x) Frozen 19M, added 82M (4.32x) TGM is 78M away, so it needs 3.9x — or if you want to pencil in 10M of expansion, just 3.4x. Clearly possible to hit, clearly possible to miss. Going to remain in limbo at least until bullet train wknd. I guess I will also note their weekly drop (to the d55-61 window): Avatar 34.5M, +6% (this was pres week) BP 8M, -39% NWH 11.3M, -10% (Super Bowl/valentines week) Frozen I have to redo entirely since it had 5 days of limited release I forgot about. D48-54 was 15M, added 4.57x. Following week: 15.5M, +3% (mlk mon) So most of those comps had a holiday immediately upcoming which is inflating their multi a bit. If TGM just drops like 22% then 20% it will still have a dicey road. Edited July 21, 2022 by Legion and Thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borobudur Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Potiki said: It isn't coming free it is a paid VOD rental/purchase, the same way they market Jurassic World 3 or Elvis, nowhere does it say free just that is it coming or out now. Some of you all just hate streaming with such passion that it messes with your reading comprehension 😜 So JWD is available for free to Apple TV users? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potiki Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Borobudur said: So JWD is available for free to Apple TV users? No it costs extra, same for Elvis and Crawdads in the future. It just happens to be available on Apple TV which is a digital market for movies same as Amazon, Vudu, Google Play etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 700 need 20% drop. Not entirely impossible but I believe 25-30% more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 You know I kind of do miss early numbers now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Maverick digital date on Amazon now gone , could mean nothing or announcement coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
