Weekend Thread - 16-18/09/22 | The Woman King $19M, Pearl $3.12M, See $3.10M

[Ryan Reynolds]

24 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Iam confident now Bp2 will soon join the A+ list down the line  followed by avatar 2.

you will be half right, but i would wait for reviews

[Legion Again]

Going optimistic thanks to reception, let’s say:

1.7

5.5

7

5.5 // 18M true

weekdays 7M // 26.7M cume, 25M true OWeek

 

weekdays/true OW there is ~39%, vs 36% Ford v Ferrari, 38% Love Simon, 41% Harriet. Then True OWeek Multics:

FvF 2.9x

LS 2.66x

Harr 2.72x  

 

FvF had the most holiday help here, with thanksgiving on day 13. Most had more competition than TWK. 2.6-2.9x range let’s say would take it to 67-74. Throw in some variance on the OWeek and 60-80 it will be.

Edited September 17, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

List of September releases to gross $100M, starting with an OW below $30M 

 

1. 
 

… that’s none! Only 5 non-horror, non-animated movies have broken the $100M threshold from a September start at all, and the only one to clear $105M is Sully 

 

The lower weekday numbers this time of year makes it difficult for even the best received moves to reach a 4x OW, much less a >4.5x (if not even 5x+)

 

All did it off >5x — though only one this century, and barely at that. I believe that’s comprehensive— the only other films to open above 10M in Sep and leg >5x look to be Last of the Mohicans (75M), Sneakers (51M), and Sea of Love (58M).

Edit: Missed one. Did it off just 3.5x so of course not good enough to TWK

Edited September 17, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Krissykins]

15 hours ago, Krissykins said:

A+ Cinemascore incoming? 

 

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

WOMAN KING, THE (2022)

Excellent! That’s great news for legs too. 

[DAJK]

See How They Run’s not great. I was actually kinda bored watching it which is super unfortunate because I was pretty excited.

[Legion Again]

True OWeek multi of next most recent schooltime non religious 10-40M OW A+s:

Selma 3.2x (days 8-11 were mlk wknd though — adjusting for that crudely, 2.9ish)
Lone Survivor 2.5x (also 2nd wknd mlk, less impact though)

Best man holiday 1.85 (??? — maybe somebody can explain the atrocious legs on this A+ to me, small movie before my time)

42 2.65x

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah, but B- still feels surprisingly super low for it. I'm curious myself. Even Death on the Nile got a B. 

 

As someone for whom this was one of the most anticipated movies of the year and then enjoyed it but was a little disappointed....

 

It gets trapped between parody and homage, with Rockwell and Ronan's characters in particular comedy archetypes that for some reason they feel the need to flesh out into more complex characters than they need to be. They also go on a tangent (inspired by the Mousetrap, so understandable, but not an inspiration most mainstream audience members will get) that drags focus away from the main plot and ends up limiting how much the amazing ensemble is actually in it.

 

Almost like the producers were surprised they got Rockwell and Ronan to agree to a comedy whodunnit and then felt the need to justify them by giving them more dramatic heft.

 

In the moments when it's *just* a light comedy whodunnit (especially the first 10 minutes) it's great. But over half the film has an identity crisis.

[FilmFincher]

I thought See How They Run was quite charming, especially Saoirse Ronan who is an absolute delight. Maybe it tries too hard with the self-referential meta stuff and it's not reinventing the wheel when it comes to a whodunnit. But a pretty good watch nonetheless. 

[Krissykins]

My Mum and her two sisters (all 50+) went to see See How They Run last weekend and they were all pretty bored. 

[DAJK]

fwiw Barbarian is having pretty stellar holds at literally every theatre I'm tracking. Wouldn't be shocked at all with a sub-50 drop.

[SchumacherFTW]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

fwiw Barbarian is having pretty stellar holds at literally every theatre I'm tracking. Wouldn't be shocked at all with a sub-50 drop.

And here's us in Britain having to wait until Halloween weekend 😑

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, DAJK said:

fwiw Barbarian is having pretty stellar holds at literally every theatre I'm tracking. Wouldn't be shocked at all with a sub-50 drop.

Derby avg is a 45% drop though I went in on 42% and max is just -40

[Last Man Standing]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

See How They Run’s not great. I was actually kinda bored watching it which is super unfortunate because I was pretty excited.

That's a shame, Saoirse could use a W.

[cookie]

42 minutes ago, DAJK said:

fwiw Barbarian is having pretty stellar holds at literally every theatre I'm tracking. Wouldn't be shocked at all with a sub-50 drop.

Given the cinemascore, a sub-50 drop would be excellent.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Ticket to Paradise is out here in Turkey as well, over a month before the US. Pretty limited release though, as while my local mall theater has it the big chain theater isn't playing it.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

49 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

That's a shame, Saoirse could use a W.

 

Would you say so?

 

Brooklyn - Success

Ladybird - Success

Mary Queen of Scots - Modest

Little Women - Big Success

 

All her other films seem deliberately low scale and, in the case of Ammonite, is excellent low scale. She's only fleetingly in French Dispatch. 

 

I mean given she isn't really presented as an A-lister so much as a prestige actress it wouldn't occur to me her career is in any way struggling.

[Last Man Standing]

42 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

Would you say so?

 

Brooklyn - Success

Ladybird - Success

Mary Queen of Scots - Modest

Little Women - Big Success

 

All her other films seem deliberately low scale and, in the case of Ammonite, is excellent low scale. She's only fleetingly in French Dispatch. 

 

I mean given she isn't really presented as an A-lister so much as a prestige actress it wouldn't occur to me her career is in any way struggling.

Her last good movie was in 2019, I don't count The French Dispatch as a Saoirse movie either way.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

4 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

Her last good movie was in 2019, I don't count The French Dispatch as a Saoirse movie either way.

 

If you don't count the French Dispatch then surely she's literally only been in one movie since 2019.

[Last Man Standing]

3 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

If you don't count the French Dispatch then surely she's literally only been in one movie since 2019.

Yeah, that's why I hoped that her new movie would be good.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, cookie said:

Will Ends even make $75m at this rate? Feels like Kills killed (heh) all the momentum.

Probably not unless being the most high-profile horror movie around Halloween (aside from Prey for the Devil but I doubt that's going to make much of a mark) helps it out.