jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 9 hours ago, Eric Killmonger said: Expect the worst always and you'll never be disappointed. No, we're gonna kick some ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Looked like 8 Edited November 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Looked like 8 6% above rag adjusted, back closer in line to sat sun. Edited November 17, 2022 by Legion By Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Factcheck Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Legion By Night said: 6% above rag adjusted, back closer in line to sat sun. So $295-297M till 2nd wknd & then 130-134M total $425-431M? Edited November 17, 2022 by Factcheck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 If that holds. 70-71m at best. Thurs 7-7.5m Fri. 17-18m Sat. 28-30m Sun. 19- 21m 64 - 70m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed121 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8? How..Multiverse did 9 and their Tuesday’s were the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 11 hours ago, Legion By Night said: 70 *is* strong. 10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: Always look for 2nd SAT drop. Yes to both of these. To get to a $70M second weekend for BPWF, going to need a $30M+ Saturday, which would be -46% vs the opening Saturday, and to get to $75M requires ~$33M/-42% Here's the recent MCU 2nd Saturday track record Thor L&T = -56.1% Strange MoM = -54.2% Spider-Man NWH = -57.1% (Christmas Day) Eternals = -50.8% Shang-Chi = -33.8% Essentially, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, in that it requires a very high level of anticipation to reach a $100M+ opening, and its extremely difficult to retain even half of that surge/demand (-50%) into the second weekend. Occasionally we get an exception, like Batman's -35% 2nd Sat in March - where IMO the DC brand was so toxic that there a lot of initial hesitation, as people skipped the opening weekend before good WOM pushed them off the fence for week 2 - but there's really nothing to suggest BPWF is poised to be one of those exceptions. Its daily grosses have been right in the range you'd expect for this size opening, unlike the original BP, where daily numbers showed clearly that a second surge was building during that first Tue/Wed/Thu 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Although, amusingly, the link between 2nd sat drop and legs going forward is almost nonexistent for MCU (r^2=.12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, Reed121 said: 8? How..Multiverse did 9 and their Tuesday’s were the same May weekdays a little bit stronger than November; schools aren’t out then, but they are winding down for colleges and often HS seniors, so more flexibility. This week a lot of people are grinding, finishing things up before the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday break where they’ll have more free time for movies 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Maybe those that didn't see BP2 in OW decided to wait until Thanksgiving break. I know some who said they were doing that. More and more schools have the entire week off nowadays. The next 10 days will be interesting. Most big November movies open either the first week of November (Doctor Strange, Ragnarok) or the third week just before Thanksgiving (Catching Fire, Frozen 2, Fantastic Beasts 2). It will be interesting to see which group BP2 performs more like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 41 minutes ago, Reed121 said: 8? How..Multiverse did 9 and their Tuesday’s were the same Different audience demo in a different season with different ticket prices, different movie rewatchability, and different theater availability (since a few posters have mentioned theaters have gone back to shorter weekdays). Civil War let us know a good, well received supers movie doesn't always display the legs we expect. We'll keep seeing how WF does... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed121 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, M37 said: May weekdays a little bit stronger than November; schools aren’t out then, but they are winding down for colleges and often HS seniors, so more flexibility. This week a lot of people are grinding, finishing things up before the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday break where they’ll have more free time for movies I expected the better word of mouth and soft Tuesday increase to counter that. I’ve been looking at Thor Ragnarok’s first week numbers in November. It dropped 43% on Wednesday but then increased 14% (nearly a million) on Thursday. Is there any particular reason it increased so much on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Reed121 said: I expected the better word of mouth and soft Tuesday increase to counter that. I’ve been looking at Thor Ragnarok’s first week numbers in November. It dropped 43% on Wednesday but then increased 14% (nearly a million) on Thursday. Is there any particular reason it increased so much on Thursday? Veteran’s day was sat, so observed fri, so th night was stronger as it was partial holiday eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Different audience demo in a different season with different ticket prices, different movie rewatchability, and different theater availability (since a few posters have mentioned theaters have gone back to shorter weekdays). Civil War let us know a good, well received supers movie doesn't always display the legs we expect. We'll keep seeing how WF does... I was thinking that we don't have too many huge blockbusters with great WOM that have meh multipliers or fall short of lofty expectations. And I was thinking that Civil War was the only MCU movie that falls into that category. Off the top of my head, HPDH2 also falls into that category. At least we know BP2 will have a substantially higher multi than the anemic 2.25-2.28X's that those two movies had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 this is cinema. Quote ‘Fast X’ Budget Has Ballooned to $340 Million – Can It Still Turn a Profit for Universal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Under $70 million second weekend for BP2 would be a very bad sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Black Panther should enjoy a decent drop next weekend with both the Thanksgiving/Black Friday holiday and the fact none of the weekend's openers look to have much traction to them. Even if it drops 60% this weekend, wouldn't rule out a $40M+ third weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Looks like >60% drops really are the new norm for Marvel after all. Couple that new reality with Avatar 2 dropping in just a month, and I don't see this making all that much more than Doctor Strange 2. Rich white people really have moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, filmlover said: Black Panther should enjoy a decent drop next weekend with both the Thanksgiving/Black Friday holiday and the fact none of the weekend's openers look to have much traction to them. Even if it drops 60% this weekend, wouldn't rule out a $40M+ third weekend. Weirdly, with so many openers, even if none big, it will still suffer the overall screen loss that it would if something big was opening. I mean, it went from 6-8 screens at my Cinemarks OW, to 4.5-5 screens this weekend, to only preselling 1-1.75 screens next Tuesday since both theaters are opening 6 new movies between Friday and Tuesday...that will hurt just in showing availability b/c it is a long movie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, filmlover said: Black Panther should enjoy a decent drop next weekend with both the Thanksgiving/Black Friday holiday and the fact none of the weekend's openers look to have much traction to them. Even if it drops 60% this weekend, wouldn't rule out a $40M+ third weekend. Shouldn't be less than $50 million based on past Thanksgiving weekends (not including those release the weekend before). DS and ThRag dropped less than 25% Thanksgiving weekend. And it should make about 80% of that weekend during the week. By the end of the second weekend, BP2 should be $380-$390 m dom. It should be at least $440 m by the time Avatar comes out. It should be between $450-$460 m heading into the Christmas holiday. $500 m is very iffy and I'm leaning toward no way. But $480 m for its domestic run shouldn't be a problem unless the bottom falls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
